Chapter 272 After entering the Pass, a great scholar will debate for me
Tuesday, May 14, 2024.
Last night's financial news seemed a bit bland, but after careful consideration, I felt that it was full of profound meaning.
1. Blinken publicly criticized Israel, saying: "Innocent civilians have lost their lives, and the Israeli army should withdraw from Gaza!"
Has the relationship between the US and Israel changed?
In connection with the fact that a few days ago, the United States stopped transporting ammunition to Israel in an attempt to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but Israel ignored it and continued to bomb Rafah, and even shredded the UN Charter with a shredder at the UN General Assembly.
It seems that the differences between the United States and Israel on the Middle East issue are growing larger and larger.
Behind this disagreement is the fact that the US economy is in trouble and has to "compromise" in the Middle East.
In previous chapters, we have discussed that if the United States wants to achieve a soft landing of the economy and suppress inflation, it must either resolve the Middle East issue and lower energy prices, or re-couple with the major Eastern powers and use high-quality and low-cost goods to suppress domestic inflation, or it can only self-destruct and reform itself.
Because the relationship between goods and currency is one-to-one.
The problem the United States faces today is that there is too much money and not enough goods to support it, which is why there is persistent and difficult-to-control inflation.
Faced with this problem, against the backdrop of the Sino-US dispute, reconnecting with the Eastern superpower is impossible. Meanwhile, attempts to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have met with strong Israeli opposition, and even fierce conflict.
So, it seems, perhaps, that we can only rely on internal reforms to eliminate the excess coins.
Among these, the stock market, real estate market, medical care, education, etc. are all options, but no matter which choice is made, it will lead to economic downturn, or even a sudden drop, and harm related interest groups.
This seems to be an impossible option in an election year.
It seems that resolving this round of inflation has reached a dead end.
However, there is another option, which is an option that European rulers have often used throughout history - eliminating creditors.
The main creditors of the United States, or the main wealth, are in the hands of the YT people...
In history (omit one thousand words)...
Therefore, for many people, wealth is the devil. It is like opening Pandora's box, making people addicted to it, unable to extricate themselves, and eventually digging their own graves.
If virtue does not match one's position, disaster will surely occur.
2. During the visit of the South Korean Foreign Minister to China, South Korea established a "Ministry of Low Fertility" to deal with South Korea's low fertility rate and aging problems.
As Europe begins to loosen up economically and politically, and Japan's exchange rate is repeatedly attacked, South Korea seems to have come to its senses a little.
In fact, as one of the vassal states of Chinese culture in history, its best choice is to embrace the Central Plains and join the industrial cycle established by our country, so that it can have its own foothold.
In the past, if you followed the United States, you might be able to have some soup and eat some leftovers, but now the Americans are already unable to take care of themselves. If you continue to follow them, you will only be hungry for nine meals out of three days.
Looking at the fertility rate, it has dropped to 0.78, ranking last in the world. The fundamental reason is that most of the profits of the Korean economy are controlled by major chaebols, which are in turn controlled by American capital.
Ordinary civilians have become dry batteries, with no savings, no excess fat, and naturally no possibility or instinct to reproduce.
This can be seen from the continuous decline in the living standards of ordinary Korean civilians in recent years (for example, studying in Korea = weight loss journey, a scallion caused public outrage...).
In fact, this trend of over-financialization (education, medical care, and real estate), which has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, has also occurred in our country and will continue to test us in the future.
3. Shenzhen: By 2025, the digital transformation rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in key industries must reach 100%!
This is the implementation of the previous "old for new" policy.
In fact, this important policy has two meanings. One is what we generally know, which is to stimulate domestic demand and carry out "trade-in" for consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles.
The other layer is the further upgrading of the economy, from industrial electrification to industrial intelligence. This context can be seen from the coal mine machinery intelligence policy released a few days ago.
Not only are mines becoming intelligent, ports are also rapidly becoming intelligent. Cars are transitioning from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles and then evolving into intelligent ones. Robots are also evolving from traditional hydraulic models to electrification and then intelligence.
In addition, there are machine tools, printing, pharmaceuticals, warehousing, petrochemicals, etc. All industries are evolving rapidly and moving towards intelligence.
This not only implies an increase in productivity, but is also equivalent to an intelligent technological revolution.
If we say that in the past, due to insufficient productivity, the developed countries in the world exploited, colonized and controlled the developing and underdeveloped countries through finance and products,
In the future, it is very likely that the world will enter an intelligent society, and the exploitation and control between countries and between people will most likely shift to between people and robots, and between people and smart devices.
It seems that people can live by "enslaving" machines.
That was another era.
After expressing my feelings, A-shares opened.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3148 points, and then began to fluctuate. The shipping and shipbuilding sectors, which had a strong performance yesterday, began to diverge and adjust. The non-ferrous metals sector strengthened and then began to fall back. The overall market lacked hot spots, but it also gave people a feeling of indescribable calmness.
In the main room, the quarrel broke out again.
"Look, I was right, wasn't I? May 10th was a false breakthrough, a fake bull market," Lao Wang said solemnly. "Just wait and see. If there are two more days of adjustments and the volume shrinks, it will be like a guillotine!"
"Get out of the way, Lao Wang, can't you say something nice? Can't you say anything other than being bearish? What if the price goes up?" another stockholder retorted.
"impossible!"
"Why do I think it's possible?"
The two of them started arguing.
Indeed, the Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating narrowly around 3150 points for seven days. At this delicate position, if it moves upward, a bull market will begin, and if it moves downward, a bear market will continue.
Many people lack confidence, and the thermometer index of Jisilu is only 8.53 degrees.
Many old stock investors, including new ones, are still skeptical about this round of market conditions, and are ready to run away at any time.
"Li Feng, what do you think?"
After listening to the discussion among his fellow stockholders and looking at the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, Xiao Bo felt quite confused.
Li Feng turned his gaze away from the market software, thought for a moment, and said, "No one can accurately predict the short-term market. It's too random. Putting too much energy into speculating on the short-term market will do more harm than good. Let's focus on the future."
"In the future, there are several important nodes that require attention."
After a pause, Li Feng continued:
"The first milestone is whether the EU will cut interest rates in June; the second is what policy will be announced at the July meeting; the third is when my country's central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios; and the fourth is when the Federal Reserve will actually cut interest rates."
Xiao Bo listened, and said thoughtfully:
"These policies are basically easing policies. Li Feng, what you're saying is that we shouldn't worry about the temporary rise and fall of the index, but should pay more attention to the trend of inflation?"
"Yes," Li Feng said affirmatively, "As long as inflation continues, the inflation market will continue to develop, and the performance of inflation-yielding stocks will naturally continue to soar. Then, when the time comes, there will naturally be funds coming in."
"Just like what people often say on the internet, after entering the customs, there will be great scholars to debate for me, and after development, there will be Miss Saigon. It's exactly the same."
"As long as the performance is good enough, the once dumb, heavy-duty cyclical stocks can be repackaged and transformed into blue-chip stocks, growth stocks, and track stocks, leading the trend for a while..."
"This..." Xiao Bo was speechless for a moment.
"Don't believe it? Just look at how coal stocks went from ugly ducklings to high-yield stocks. COSCO Shipping Holdings, once a strong cyclical and loss-making company, is now being labeled a high-dividend, weak-cyclical stock in many forums... Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and so on are also being increasingly sought after, praised, and admired..."
Q&A with stockholders:
User 55820636: This round of inflation quietly kicked off with coal and oil, with gold and copper now hot, and water, electricity, and gas about to take the stage. Who will follow? Who will be the "king" of this round of inflation?
No one can predict what will happen in the future, as it is too random.
Instead of pursuing the "king" with the highest rate of return in investment, it is better to choose to hold industries and individual stocks that you can understand and make money within your own cognition.
Being slower and more steady gives people a greater psychological advantage than just going fast or high.
Before we know it, another day is about to pass. If you have time, please send a free gift to show your love.
Your support is my motivation to renew.
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