Chapter 280 A Future Investment Target
Wednesday, May 22, 2024.
In the past two days, there have been so many major international events that it seems we are overwhelmed and don’t even have time to catch up.
Last night, another undercurrent began to surge underground.
1. The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court announced that he had applied for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Galant.
Although it is a show and everyone knows it is useless, it also shows Israel's international situation.
Even more intriguing is that French President Emmanuel Macron announced his support for the ruling against Netanyahu.
This is quite interesting.
You dare to interfere in the affairs of my eldest brother’s biological father’s family?
Could it be that someone at the University of Tokyo offered you some favor a few days ago, causing you to waver in your stance? Are you having second thoughts? Aren't you afraid of a beating from the boss? Don't you know that von der Leyen is watching you?
Or is Macron laying the groundwork for the post-American era?
2. The third meeting of the Finance and Economics Subcommittee of the China-Saudi Arabia High-Level Joint Committee was held in Beijing.
The level of attendance of both sides was very high.
In this era of international geopolitical turmoil, big investors are afraid that the funds in their hands will become waste paper and are in urgent need of finding a container.
Welcome to my country's capital market. It is very likely that in the future, oil and RMB will be linked for settlement.
We export goods and currency, and you can use RMB to buy goods and enjoy the appreciation of your investment, killing two birds with one stone.
3. ECB President Lagarde: "A rate cut next month is possible," and "action on June 6 is very likely"
Fed Governor Waller: "Policies must keep inflation down," "If the data warrants it, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates at the end of the year"
The economic policies of Europe and the United States have diverged, mainly because the United States has printed a lot of US dollars but does not have enough goods to digest them. It can't bear it and dare not cut interest rates too early. Otherwise, once the interest rates are cut, the US dollar and US stocks may collapse.
4. The new version of the Code of Professional Ethics for Securities Practitioners will be released soon.
Yesterday, some investors accurately predicted that Nanjing Chemical Fiber would hit the daily limit at 2:34, and Zhongtong Bus accurately predicted that it would hit the daily limit at 1:20. Today, someone on Tonghuashun predicted that Raytheon Defense would hit the daily limit at 10 o'clock.
What's even funnier is that after this guy found out that the matter had gotten out of hand, he posted another message saying that it was just a guess, that he was a college student and could predict the time, but it was just a blind cat catching a dead mouse.
As we all know, this kind of thing is not such a coincidence. It is likely that the dealer was showing off and was struck by lightning.
We have said many times before that the village chief came this time with a mission, and the imperial sword is the "New Nine Articles", which is mainly to carry out a "Z-style" cleanup of the financial sector, mainly the stock market, and to carry out "supply-side reform."
Not convinced?
He was given a warning and fine, had a case opened for investigation, and was taken to the police station for stepping on a sewing machine.
You know, even the ministry-level unit CITIC Securities was put under investigation some time ago. If these little Karami don't have eyes, it will be like an egg hitting a stone, and they will all break into pieces without a splash.
This is also the reason why I have been afraid to touch brokerage firms these days. The water is too deep and too confusing, and the people inside are too crooked. They are all traitors and need a major overhaul. I don’t know if their butts can be cleaned up in a short time.
If after a period of time, these brokerage firms can straighten themselves out, their work style improves, and their stock prices are still low, it would be worth buying some and taking a chance.
5. "Teguo 2401" rose by 13% and was suspended, and "24 Teguo 01" soared by 25% and was suspended.
There is too much liquidity in the market, even long-term government bonds have started to be speculated. Looking at the trading volume, it is only tens of millions of yuan. It is hard not to believe that this is funds coming to warm up the market and increase liquidity.
Long-term government bonds are a very good product, and they can also be listed and traded. If the liquidity is better, they will be the best choice in the stock-bond rebalancing strategy and the best choice in bond allocation.
To be honest, this is an excellent investment target.
The best time to intervene in this kind of long-term government bonds is at the end of the interest rate hike.
Similarly, at the end of the super bull market from 2005 to 2007, that is, in mid-2007, at the end of the great inflation cycle at that time, the one-year deposit rate was as high as 4.14%, and the corresponding treasury bond yield also reached a historic high of 4.5%.
Naturally, the prices of long-term bonds that year basically fell to the bottom.
At this time, the best strategy to avoid the century's bear market is to buy long-term government bonds.
At that time, once the stock market goes into a bear market, deposit interest rates will be lowered again and again to save the market, and naturally the price of long-term government bonds will continue to rise.
During the big bear market in 2008, perhaps the only way to avoid it and get a fairly high rate of return was to buy bonds.
I remember that if you bought bonds in mid-2007, you could get a yield of around 10%.
The Shanghai Composite Index that year plummeted from 6124 points to 1664 points. Countless stocks were cut in half again and again. Cutting at the ankle was considered merciful. It was much more severe than the current decline in the real estate sector.
It's like a river flowing eastward, never looking back. Once you've experienced it, you'll never forget it. (Have any stockholders experienced this?)
This time point may be as short as 24-26 years, and as long as it is difficult to predict. At that time, it will be the moment for the stock market to make a victorious escape.
Today's index is moving very hesitantly.
In the morning session, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3157 points, and then began to fluctuate up and down. No one knew whether it would rise or fall next.
On the market, the real estate sector continued to soar, with Gemdale Group rising more than 6% and Vanke rising more than 4%. Coal, insurance and banks rebounded, while the non-ferrous metals sector diverged, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and shipping sectors all falling. The volatility of non-ferrous stocks on Monday seemed to have put a big hat on the sector.
Overall, there is some separation between stocks and futures, which is not very interesting, so just endure it.
Q&A with stockholders:
"Selling stocks to support the family": China Heavy Industry today issued an announcement on the listing and circulation of non-publicly issued and sold shares. Is it bad news? How to interpret this information?
It has no impact.
Previously, the non-publicly issued stocks were basically held by subsidiaries, and the cost was more than 5 yuan. If they sold them at this price, they would still lose money.
"The love of eating pear vinegar":
Dear author, feed, a daily necessity commodity, should have a short cycle, right? From which aspects should we observe its changes?
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are all sinkhole industries, so don't touch them if you can.
Even in mining, some private enterprises sometimes lie about reserves and production capacity. Planting and breeding industries, which rely on the weather, can easily suffer a bankruptcy. The scallops in Changzi Island could swim away and swim back, which was more obedient than humans.
"I'm standing on top of the bull market":
Are the issues between China and the United States so easy to resolve? It is true that China is developing rapidly, but the United States is a military power after all, so it may not be easy to resolve, right?
The US military can only talk tough. Look at the Russo-Bird War, they couldn't even supply 155mm artillery shells. Boeing is such a big company, but its planes malfunction every day. Now even if you give them the courage, they wouldn't dare to start a war.
Take Hussein for example. He is always pushing him against his will. If he had any recourse, he would have sent troops long ago.
If the current situation continues, the Americans will be in real trouble, unless another Kissinger appears from the sky.
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