Chapter 284: The most important thing to study in investment
Tuesday, May 28, 2024.
Yesterday's financial news.
1. Villeroy, a member of the ECB's governing council and president of the Bank of France, said: "The ECB should not rule out the possibility of a second interest rate cut in July." "Unless there are unexpected events, the ECB will cut interest rates in June."
It seems that the EU’s interest rate cut in June is a foregone conclusion.
According to traditional economists, raising interest rates will suppress consumption, while lowering interest rates will stimulate consumption. Therefore, after the EU cuts interest rates, and even further cuts interest rates in July, consumption within the EU should improve significantly.
As a consumer body with more than 400 million people, the increase in the EU's consumption level will definitely lead to a surge in commodity prices in the future, which will in turn be fed back from the source to the end point, pushing up the world's inflation level.
In this situation, our CPI is at a low level and we will adopt a cautious attitude. As for the EU's approach to inflation, it should be to cut interest rates first to revitalize the economy. As for inflation, we will wait and see next year.
After all, inflation is just a string of numbers used for calculations. It calculates the price increase this year compared to last year. As long as the increase last year was large enough, the increase this year will be small enough. As long as the overall CPI increase this year is large, the price increase next year may be smaller.
If CPI rises again next year, the worst that can happen is that we will continue to raise interest rates the year after.
Just like kneading dough, if there is too much water, add dough, and if there is too much dough, add water. Just muddle through.
Now, in this round of super "holding pee competition", the European Union couldn't help but pee first, and everyone's attention naturally shifted to the Americans - when will you start peeing?
2. Middle East: Houthi armed forces attacked two US destroyers. Israel continued its military operations in the Rafah area and opened fire on Egypt, killing an Egyptian soldier.
Everyone understands Yi's little thoughts. He wants to occupy more territory and drag his elder brother to help him fight. Unfortunately, his elder brother is unable to take care of himself and frequently fails to help. This seriously affects the "father-son relationship", and the two sides begin various extreme pulls.
3. The tripartite declaration
There is almost no need to look at it. This meeting is just a formality and a small expression of attitude.
Because Japan and South Korea are colonies of the United States and are controlled by the United States both economically and politically, the relationship between my country and Japan and South Korea is essentially the relationship between China and the United States, and no results can be negotiated.
What's more, my country's economy is booming now and is on the offensive, while the United States is on the defensive. If Japan and South Korea want to take advantage of 1949 to surrender, they probably won't get a good price.
Everything depends on the outcome of the great dispute between China and the United States.
In the future, according to the Sino-Russian statement, maintaining the resolution of the Yalta Conference, Japan and South Korea will return to their historical status as vassal states in the Western Pacific region. Other additional benefits will depend on how the situation develops after the United States falls.
The truth is only within the range of cannons, whether at home or abroad, whether in ancient times or modern times.
4. The ZZJ reviewed the "Regulations on Accountability for Preventing and Resolving Financial Risks (Trial Implementation)".
Since the Central Financial Work Conference last year, the rectification of the financial sector has been one wave higher and higher, stricter and stricter, and the standards have been getting higher and higher.
To be honest, the market was in a mess before. Casinos were full of cheaters, supervision was non-existent, and some policies were even corrupted, conspiring to exploit retail investors.
In that kind of market, there is only a losing effect, not a making-money effect. Retail investors can only vote with their feet and turn away. Even if large international investment banks come, they will only return empty-handed.
How can a pure comprador-type harvester of Wall Street power and money transactions talk about integrating international capital?
Things are different now.
The chairman has made it clear that we must build a strong financial country, deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, promote high-quality development of my country's financial sector, comprehensively strengthen financial supervision, and unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics.
We must dare to draw the sword and strictly enforce the law.
We must vigorously promote China's excellent traditional culture in the financial system, adhere to honesty and trustworthiness, make profits with righteousness, be prudent and sound, uphold integrity and innovation, and comply with the law.
And so on, we have introduced them in detail in the previous chapters.
This is the national policy, this is the future route, and it is the top priority that needs to be studied in our investment.
It can be said that all the people and institutions who can understand the situation have quietly left the minefield, and all the people and institutions who do not understand the situation are still operating according to the previous model. The result is that they are trying to stop a chariot with a mantis arm and will be punished by an iron fist.
The ultimate goal of my country's financial market is to become Wall Street and even surpass Wall Street.
We welcome capital from all over the world, build the great cause of China, and create a prosperous world.
5. The third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund was established with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan.
The dispute between China and the United States is fundamentally an economic and technological dispute.
Today, the technological competition between China and the United States is mainly focused on the design and manufacturing of semiconductor chips.
As time goes by, we have broken through 7NM chip manufacturing and are moving towards 5NM chip manufacturing. At this point in time, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III was established, which ignited another fire at this breakthrough stage.
In the foreseeable future, according to our nature, we will soon make chips cheap, completely tear apart the technological hegemony established by the United States, make chip technology accessible to the world, and seize this technological commanding height in one fell swoop.
The means used are naturally the national system and modern methods of financing from the capital market.
Today's market conditions:
The market is quite turbulent today.
Following yesterday's cyclical king, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings' surge of more than 6%, leading the strong cyclical stocks to strengthen all the way, today the strong cyclical stocks began to diverge, with non-ferrous metal stocks standing out, and the non-ferrous metal ETF rising 1.18%.
Tin and antimony minor metals were active during the session, with Huayu Mining rising for two consecutive days, while Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Xingye Silver and Tin, Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Hunan Gold all rose by more than 5%. In addition, lead and zinc stocks also performed well, with Zhongjin Lingnan, Zhuye Group, and Chihong Zinc and Germanium all rising by more than 3%, and Aluminum Corporation of China and China National Offshore Oil Corporation both rising by more than 2%.
Driven by strong cyclical stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3122 points at the opening to 3128 points, and then began to fall and fluctuate.
The overall market showed that strong cyclical stocks were active, non-ferrous metal stocks generally rose, gold, copper and kerosene were slightly weak, aluminum stocks were strong, and minor metals were relatively active.
In the VIP room, several veteran stock investors have already begun to criticize the strong cycles.
"The PE is so high, it's just a random rise..." said an old stock investor disdainfully.
"What do you know? Futures prices have gone crazy. The PE ratio seems high now, but once the interim report comes out, the PE ratio will be low. Oh, it's a pity that I didn't pay attention to this sector earlier. Unfortunately, there are no ifs in investment." Another veteran stock investor said,
"The PE is low, and there are not many dividends? I really don't understand this market. Look at consumer stocks, they only have several times the PE, and the dividends are also high. Why don't the market like them? No matter which indicator, they are better than these cyclical stocks. Don't you know that these are cyclical stocks? Once the cycle ends, the performance will collapse. It's really a casino, a bunch of gamblers!" Someone else complained.
"Do you think others don't know that this is a casino? Everyone actually knows that this is a casino, they just pretend not to know. Isn't it gambling when you buy consumer stocks? Are you going to hold those consumer stocks for the rest of your life and until you die?" someone retorted.
"I'll just keep it for a lifetime, so what? Such a good company is worth keeping for a lifetime, not to mention such a low price..." someone else said.
"Low? If it's already low, it can go lower. Look at the current real estate stocks, the previous online education stocks, and those once-popular bull stocks, such as Suning Appliance and Sichuan Changhong... Once the trend is gone, they will either be delisted or withdrawn... As for these cyclical stocks, why can't they rise further? As long as the performance is good, the dividends can be increased, they can become high-dividend stocks, and they can become blue-chip stocks. Haven't you seen how coal and oil stocks have performed in the past few years?" someone else said.
"This... Lao Wang, you said so much, but did you buy it?" someone asked unconvinced.
"This... I haven't bought it yet. I'm timid. Besides, it has risen so much, how can I dare to buy it? If I buy it now, I will be destined to take over the whole market. I will definitely be trapped if I buy it, and then I will become a bag holder in an instant..." Lao Wang told the truth.
"Tsk... I didn't buy it, so why are you making such sarcastic remarks?"
Q&A with stockholders:
"I'm standing on top of the bull market":
1. Well, if various wars are started, wouldn’t it be more risky for the stock market to rise?
Quite the opposite.
Once the war starts, the stock market will soar.
Because, according to our plan, there will be no war around us. The battlefields will be in the Middle East, Russia, and Africa. By then, the global supply chain will be even more disrupted, and the war's consumption of various commodities and war preparedness resources will be even more astonishing, which will stimulate economic growth.
At the same time, global capital will seek a safe haven.
And my country's capital market, which has been rectified, is prepared for these smart funds.
Other countries can cultivate a party of leaders by absorbing and exporting capital. Naturally, we can also use this method to cultivate our own agents in Europe, the United States and other places.
2. "If that's the case, then silicon materials and lithium mines are also at the bottom of the cycle. What about chips?"
I don't know much about silicon materials, but I can say clearly again about lithium ore that the price of lithium ore is not at the bottom, but is in a downward channel due to supply problems. It has no investment value at this stage, and the value of future investment is not very great.
Because this thing is, firstly, not scarce, secondly, the production capacity is increasing too quickly, and thirdly, no oligopoly has been formed. Once the price goes up, the production capacity will follow.
The reason why the price soared to hundreds of thousands of yuan per ton was because the new energy industry developed too fast and the production capacity could not keep up for a while. However, after only three or two years, the production capacity of major production areas around the world increased.
Therefore, its cycle is shorter than that of gold and copper, and with the continuous investment in production capacity and the continued demand for lithium mines in the new energy industry in the future, it should be able to maintain a relatively appropriate price. However, if you want to make huge profits like before, it will be impossible.
Unexpectedly, today turned out to be a day of big gains. While stock friends were happy, they clicked on the reminder for updates and sent a free gift for love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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