Chapter 288 Only by studying the past can we be qualified to talk about the future.
Friday, May 31, 2024.
Yesterday's news:
1. All 34 charges against former US President Trump were found guilty.
This year's US election has not yet begun, but there is already more and more fun. If Trump fails in his appeal, he will run for US president with an old man in prison.
If you think about it, it seems ridiculous.
The US election in the second half of the year will be exciting to watch with the infighting between the two parties.
2. China-Arab Joint Statement.
Over the past few months, the international situation has been changing dramatically.
In the west, Macron suddenly became "independent", in the east, China and Russia issued a statement, and now China and Algeria have issued a joint statement.
Especially the last two statements, which basically show the unified attitude of the three parties.
Internationally, the underwater struggle is slowly coming to the surface. Let's see how China responds.
3. The Houthi armed forces will escalate their military operations.
There will be an upgrade in "quality and quantity", and it is conceivable that the conflict in the Middle East will be further intensified.
4. Terminate the tariff reductions and exemptions for some products under the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement.
Good, very good.
Only a poor Taiwan can truly unify Taiwan.
Today's market:
Today's market situation is very boring and makes people sleepy, and Li Feng's writing is also very uninteresting.
After the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3094 points, it began to fluctuate up and down.
During the trading session, strong cyclical stocks fell back by inertia and then rebounded slightly. Coal stocks unexpectedly strengthened, and stocks such as banks, insurance and consumption also fluctuated between red and green.
In the futures market, against the backdrop of expectations of a US recession and six consecutive declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, commodity prices have been falling from yesterday to today.
The decline of the United States is inevitable and even foreseeable.
Because the rise and fall of a country can be intuitively felt from its economy and military.
Nowadays, the hollowing out of the U.S. economy is becoming increasingly serious. Its own high-tech fortresses, such as the chip industry, have been conquered by my country in the past six months. In the foreseeable future, starting from this breakthrough point, we will launch an attack on the United States' advantageous industries in terms of hardware and software.
In the military field, the United States has formed a deep-rooted military-industrial complex. The hundreds of military bases it has established overseas are the source of "feudal separatism". This is against the backdrop of a military strength that no longer poses a generational gap with my country and is even slightly inferior to it.
Shrinking the military and economic scope has become the only way for the United States.
What we need to consider now is whether a rapidly collapsing America is in our interest, or a slowly declining America is in our interest.
In principle, we believe that a slow decline is in line with common sense, but the development of things often goes beyond everyone's expectations. It is very likely that the United States will collapse rapidly at some point in the future.
By then, the international military, political, economic, stock, bond and other financial markets will all be completely changed.
In this regard, we investors must be fully prepared mentally and operationally.
Q&A with stockholders:
1. “The Cicada of Autumn”: I would like to ask whether the photovoltaic industry has reached the bottom?
"Hanging Stocks to Support the Family": Will Power Reform Usher in a New Cycle for Power Stocks? And How Long Will It Last?
I have not studied photovoltaic and electric power stocks as they are not within my circle of competence.
If investors want to research these industries, it is recommended that they should not limit themselves to current financial reports, but should also retrieve the financial reports of these companies from ten or twenty years ago, preferably those from 2005-2007.
Only by extending the time period can we reveal the cyclical characteristics of these industries, and predict future industry trends from past industry dynamics, so as to place bets in advance and anticipate the enemy's moves.
Research on other industries is similar.
The longer this time is, the better. Generally speaking, it should be at least five years. For example, the typical pig cycle is about five years, and the longest is twenty years. For example, the typical real estate cycle is about twenty years.
Only by studying the past can we predict the future and be qualified to talk about the future.
This is also why people in the stock market often say that only those who have experienced two bull and bear cycles can be qualified as veteran stock investors.
2. “Like the dragon girl of Kui Zhoulong”:
The more mass-produced goods go beyond policy restrictions, the more likely they are to be suppressed. Does the author have this feeling?
That's the theory.
Just like when commodity prices skyrocketed in 2021, the country sold off its reserves, but it couldn't suppress the continued surge in commodity prices.
However, when we invest, we must always keep one thing in mind, and that is risk.
Even now, I pay attention to domestic and international macroeconomic information almost every day and analyze the future of commodities, but I dare not be 100% sure that commodity prices will continue to rise in the future, nor do I dare to predict to what extent commodity prices will rise.
I can only temporarily judge that at the current position, the probability of commodity prices going up is greater than the probability of going down, so I will bet on this industry.
Therefore, we must make a comprehensive judgment on the future of commodities, treat them with caution, be optimistic, and hold them for the long term.
However, once the situation turns around, you must leave decisively.
It's the weekend again, and fellow stockholders, please click on the reminder for updates and get a free gift for love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
Also, the market is closed on the weekend, so I will take a two-day break. I will continue updating when the market opens next Monday.
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