Chapter 294: My friend dies, but I live
Tuesday, June 11, 2024.
During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, it seems that nothing major happened either internationally or domestically, but beneath the calm surface, there were still waves flowing quietly.
1. Houthi said that the sinking of two merchant ships transporting goods to Israel was a supply-side reform of the shipping industry; and that Russia's nuclear-powered submarine visited Cuba.
Cuba is only more than 200 kilometers away from the US mainland, and can be said to be its most vulnerable part.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union established a submarine base in Cuba and even planned to deploy medium-range missiles, which triggered the "Cuban Missile Crisis" during the Cold War and almost detonated a nuclear war.
This time, Russia's visit to Cuba, the heart of the US, is significant. Second, the CH analysis stated that it would "continue to study and reserve new policy measures to reduce inventory and stabilize the market."
The "destocking" policy of the real estate industry was mentioned again.
However, times have changed. The "destocking" at the end of 2015 was really about "destocking". Now, I think the "destocking" is more about stabilizing the real estate market and preventing systemic risks.
Just like the rescue of the stock market after the stock market crash in 2015, the goal was not to allow the stock market to continue rising, but to stabilize the market and prevent systemic risks from occurring, which would affect the security of the financial system.
3. The Douyin car self-media account "Xiaoniu Talks about Cars" with 5.4 million followers was blocked.
Being blocked is not the point. The point is that it was on CCTV. It is impossible for it to be reincarnated and start over.
I have repeatedly emphasized that the development of new energy vehicles, especially smart vehicles, is our country's national policy and one of the important pillars of our country's economy to replace the real estate economy.
The more severe the situation in the real estate industry, the more urgent the need to develop smart cars.
This urgency is directly reflected in the competition in my country's domestic automobile industry, making a number of automobile giants so competitive that they can't stand it anymore.
At the just-concluded Chongqing Auto Forum, the chairman of GAC Group urged people to avoid "involution" and to focus on the overall situation, the overall pattern, and the long-term.
However, in today's world pattern and in the current international economic system, the automotive industry is a major industry, besides the chip industry, that can directly reshape the international economic structure. It is also one of the important pillars for saving and even supporting my country's economy.
Whether externally or internally, our smart car strategy is not too aggressive, but not aggressive enough!
The worse the economy gets, the more competitive smart cars will be, first crushing joint ventures and then their foreign counterparts.
In the downward economic trend, I would rather my friends die than let me die.
In the future, China will first sweep away joint ventures and other foreign car companies in the domestic market, and then sweep away the auto industries of Japan, South Korea, Germany and the United States in the international market, reshaping the global auto industry. This is exactly what Europe and the United States fear the most, and it is also the fundamental reason why they have repeatedly wanted to establish trade barriers against my country's auto industry recently.
From this point of view, my previous understanding of the automotive industry may need to be reshaped, as it is still too conservative.
No matter how optimistic I was about the automotive industry before, looking back now, I still feel a little conservative.
This year is the first year of smart cars. The few Huawei-made smart cars have spread like wildfire and have made BBA suffer a fate worse than death.
Next year will be the year of the explosion of smart cars. Huawei's smart car companies, including SAIC, GAC, Great Wall, Chery, Changan, FAW, Dongfeng and other OEMs carrying the HI mode, will launch dozens of smart cars, directly subverting the entire car market with a price of more than 200,000 yuan.
At the same time, BYD will popularize DMI5.0 on a large scale in its own models, directly subverting the passenger car market below 200,000 yuan and directly increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to more than 60%!
The year after next will be a landmark moment for my country's auto industry to go overseas on a large scale. The export volume will jump from around 5 million vehicles this year and around 7 million vehicles next year to around 10 million vehicles!
Against the backdrop of today's extremely complex domestic and international economic situation, the role of the automobile industry in my country's economic system has, to a certain extent, surpassed that of the real estate industry.
Through smart cars, my country has achieved a subversion of the century-old automobile industry in Europe and the United States. At this critical moment when we are using technology to gain market share and develop the economy through the market, we naturally will not allow any unexpected problems to occur.
As for those who complain about being too inward-looking, those who try to capitalize on the popularity, and those who speak sarcastically in the self-media, they are just trying to stop a chariot with a mantis arm.
The business world is like a battlefield, even more cruel than a battlefield. If you fall behind, you will be beaten and will go bankrupt and die.
This time, we won't hold back.
4. "Huangmao Uprising", the terminal price of Moutai fell sharply.
Recently, Moutai has suspended the subscription channel for the corporate version of Feitian Moutai, priced at 1,499 yuan. I heard that it will also terminate previous cross-border products such as Moutai coffee, Moutai ice cream, and Moutai chocolate.
This product line contraction will inevitably lead to a decline in final performance and a drop in the price of end products.
This led to the "Huangmao Uprising" organized by scalpers and wool-collecting parties during the Dragon Boat Festival - using invoices to protest, or hedge against the decline in Moutai prices.
A generation of myths has begun to come to an end, and a big drama has begun. Everyone should move your benches, prepare peanuts, melon seeds, and mineral water, watch carefully, and accumulate investment experience.
Today's market:
It is no exaggeration to describe today's market as a place where everyone is in a state of panic and sees enemies everywhere.
The Jisilu thermometer has dropped to 4.89 degrees.
After the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3042.13, it began to plummet. Strong cyclical stocks all fell in the market, and mainstream sectors such as banks and insurance fell sharply.
In the shipping sector, COSCO Shipping Holdings, the king of the cycle, fell to the limit down by -10.01% with heavy volume, while Zhonggu Logistics, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and COSCO Shipping Special Equipment all plummeted by more than 8%.
In the nonferrous metals sector, Aluminum Corporation of China, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining plummeted by more than 3%, Shandong Gold, China Gold, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, and Tin Industry Co., Ltd. plummeted by more than 4%, and Industrial Silver and Tin, Northern Copper, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Silver, and Yintai Gold plummeted by more than 5%.
Compared with the strong cyclical plunge, Kweichow Moutai's large-scale plunge is even more terrifying for investors in liquor stocks.
After opening at 1602 today, Kweichow Moutai plunged more than 3%, closing at 1571 points at noon. In Kweichow Moutai's self-selected stock forum, bullish and bearish investors began to argue endlessly, with constant verbal attacks and witty remarks.
"Treasure the 1,500 yuan bottle of Kweichow Moutai."
"The above person doesn't understand shit. The ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai is 1169 yuan, and the retail price is still above 2000 yuan even if it drops further. 1500 yuan is already the limit! Kweichow Moutai is the simplest business in the world, but also the most difficult business to understand."
"You're clueless. Don't you know Kweichow Moutai is a financial product? Financial products have leverage. The higher it goes, the harder it goes down. Just wait and see."
Before we knew it, it was noon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3017 points in the afternoon, just one step away from 3000 points.
"The decline is so smooth." Old Chen muttered as he looked at his green selected stocks.
"Falling is better for your health." Xiao Bo said with a smile.
"You've fallen like this, and you're still laughing?" Old Chen said to Xiao Bo, then moved closer to Li Feng and asked, "Li Feng, what do you think?"
"Me?" Li Feng raised his head and said with a smile.
"Old Chen, don't be so alarmed. I've said before that for the current market, in the short term, we need to focus on the interim results, in the medium term, we need to keep an eye on oil prices, and in the long term, we need to consider international political dynamics... Judging from the current situation, my investment logic hasn't been shaken..."
"Huh? How come I didn't know you said that? Especially the third point?"
“It’s been harmonized.”
Q&A with stockholders:
"Like Kui Zhoulong's dragon jiao":
The European freight index plummeted. Did something happen?
I don’t know, but this is what the king of cycles is like, with violent ups and downs. In the 2021 wave, even though it increased tenfold, there were seven limit downs.
As for shipping, Houthi is still making trouble, and Europe and the United States are already in the stage of lowering interest rates and replenishing inventories. There should be no problems in the long run, but short-term fluctuations will become larger and larger, so pay attention to risk control.
"The source of happiness, happiness, happiness":
Now that beef prices are being impacted by foreign imports, what should China's own beef farmers do?
Importing grain and meat means indirectly importing land and water from abroad. As for the price of beef, I suggest paying more attention to the country's macroeconomic policies. At this stage, the large-scale import of beef can, to a certain extent, hedge against the rise in pork prices.
"Cesar who loves the sea red":
Is China Merchants Bank really that good? I switched from CCB to CMB before the market closed yesterday, but I still feel that CMB hasn't fallen enough.
I have the impression that you are an old stock investor and you should also know that in my investment system, I will not buy bank stocks at this moment.
Of course, you chose investment bank stocks, you must have your reasons and investment philosophy, and you have also made good profits, congratulations.
As for the quality of China Merchants Bank, it is definitely No. 1 among domestic banks. Some well-known big Vs have also started to buy a large number of shares recently. The reason is very good, that is, the dividend yield is high and the potential for future performance growth is great.
However, some time ago, the micro-magazine of China Merchants Bank stated that it was necessary to break the "erroneous arguments such as 'exceptionalism', 'elitism', 'specialism' and 'theory that joint-stock banks are different'".
I have also emphasized this in my previous article.
This is stated against the backdrop of my country's overall goal of building a "financial power" throughout the year. This means that the supervision and reform of the financial industry must start from securities companies and funds and then move forward to the banking system.
As for how to advance and how to govern, it is not detailed.
Perhaps it is this uncertainty that has led to the decline of China Merchants Bank in the past few weeks.
Of course, this negative news has been interpreted in detail by some big names, but I still recommend that you read and analyze it more.
"The treasure of Vanua Levu": Inflation is terrible, deflation is even more terrible, inflation and deflation, the current economic situation.
Inflation abroad, deflation at home, high blood pressure versus low blood sugar, all kinds of strange tricks and conspiracies are emerging one after another. Reality is always much more exciting than novels, and far more exciting than today's YY novels.
Welcome to the magical year 2024.
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