Chapter 298 Q&A with Stockholders
Q&A with stockholders:
1. "Chen Xiaotian":
Damn it, Muyuan's stock price plummeted. It wasn't long after the pork price hike news came out, and it's time to kill the white horse again?
Muyuan is not a representative of blue chip stocks. I still stick to my previous view that this so-called pig cycle is probably not a pig cycle. It is just a pig cycle conjectured by some big Vs. It is just a rebound.
Even in the pig cycle, the upward elasticity of performance will be limited because the stock price did not fall sharply enough and the production capacity was not cleared enough. For Muyuan Foodstuff Co., Ltd., the lowest point seems to be only half the distance from the highest point.
2. Username 92144803:
The rise of the stock market requires the support of funds. In such an investment environment, what kind of large funds dare to enter the market?
Indeed, only when funds continue to flow in can the stock market continue to rise.
The current investment environment is much better than before. In the past, all kinds of monsters and demons were exploiting retail investors. Now the system is very well developed, or the efficiency of exploitation has decreased. Retail investors are relatively fairer in their game with big investors and institutions.
In fact, while the stock market is a game, it also implies the function of long-term price discovery. It will unconsciously allocate funds in the market to places where funds are needed, that is, where the industry is booming, performance is explosive, and production expansion is needed. This is the function of the market to discover prices.
At present, I still maintain the previous judgment of this round of market on several basis points, which have not changed.
First, domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies are still becoming more relaxed.
Second, domestic policies are continuing to strongly support the stock market.
Third, the stock index is at a low level.
Although various events abroad are extremely turbulent now, we should still trust more in common sense and the general laws of the market, rather than blindly following our instincts.
At this special moment, I still recommend that everyone choose high-quality state-owned enterprises, hold their shares for a long time, and avoid speculation.
3. "Xiao Ji who loves Chinese medicine":
Besides non-ferrous metals, shipping, and shipbuilding, what other strong cyclical stocks are there?
There is also coal and oil, which have already skyrocketed in price.
We need to look at investments in strong cyclical stocks separately.
This round of market conditions is very special and fragmented. We need to start from 2020 and look towards 2024. In this big inflation cycle, some varieties have basically completed their journey, some varieties have just gone halfway, and some varieties have just started.
The trends of many varieties are different. Please refer to the series of analyses I made after Chapter 176 for details.
For example, lithium ore has been in oversupply due to the high price and large-scale production in the past few years. It is still in a state of oversupply and the outlook for the next few years is not optimistic.
At present, there is a lot of debate about investing in lithium mining stocks. Many big Vs say that lithium mining has reached the bottom of the cycle and it is time to invest.
But where is the concrete evidence?
Are there any historical data on the cycles of lithium mines?
No.
The lithium mine cycle is a new topic. In the previous period of great inflation, there was no such variety, so there was no past to refer to.
I'm a conservative investor and I take this view with a grain of salt.
4. “Big Bulls Travel the World”:
Instead of letting insurance companies speculate in stocks and real estate, it is better to do it yourself and learn from experience.
Capital is selfish and its ultimate goal is profit. That was naturally their choice back then.
Because, in history, whether in Hong Kong or Taiwan, when the real estate industry took off, it was accompanied by the rapid development of the banking and insurance industries. Many people became rich through this banking-insurance-real estate model.
Therefore, Ping An of China's idea at the time was to use the insurance company's money to speculate in real estate, adding leverage to maximize profits.
Of course, it will suffer the most in this round of de-financialization, and it will be the one that is hit every time. So when the credit cycle comes in the future, I may not allocate it because there are too many landmines hidden in its assets.
5. "Thanks":
Your article's understanding of the future of intelligent driving is similar to mine, but you don't recommend buying into this sector right now. I'm personally more bullish on Seres. Could you explain your reasoning behind not buying into this sector right now?
The best time for Ceres to intervene was last year.
The hype is that SERES's performance will improve this year, but its current position is already very high.
If you buy now, where will the future growth be? If the expected growth is not up to par, it means the market is reversing and you will face huge risks.
Your support is my motivation to update.
Also, the market is closed on the weekend, so I will take two days off and continue to brag to you all next Monday.
Chapter 297 failed to pass the review and was posted on Green Bubble (Tomato's Fifteen Years)
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