Chapter 300: Some Outlook on Future Market
Tuesday, June 18, 2024.
It's time to brag again today.
1. A very interesting thing happened yesterday. The Korean Medical Association collectively stopped providing medical services in order to protest against the government's policies such as expanding enrollment in medical schools.
The South Korean government really has no good solution to this problem.
Isn’t it ridiculous that doctors are collectively suspending their services to threaten the government?
In fact, if we look back at history, we will find that this kind of thing is nothing new.
In the real world, whether in medicine, education, economy, military, or even politics, as long as it is maintained long enough, various aristocratic families will be formed, such as medical families, warlords, financial families, academic families, etc., all big and small factions.
These aristocratic monopoly forces, relying on various privileges, exploited the lower classes, creating an extreme polarization between the rich and the poor. This greatly weakened the power of the central government, and at certain points in time, they would converge, forming the historical separatist regimes of the feudal states, eroding the government's financial and military power...
Eventually, the dynasty changed.
Therefore, this is also the reason why a large number of powerful people were abandoned after their death in successive dynasties, such as the Han, Tang, Song, and Ming dynasties.
This is not a moral issue, it's a political issue.
Second, another interesting thing is that there are rumors that DCD is going to go public. This is also a sample news that is very worth analyzing. It can show many very forward-looking reform events.
Everyone knows that the rules of the game in the capital circle are to keep telling stories to raise funds when a company is established and developing rapidly, and when the company encounters a development bottleneck or enters a stable period, it must go public to cash out.
This can be seen from the time when DD, JD, ALBB, etc. were listed.
There is no such thing as no gain without early action. Buyers are never as smart as sellers.
As we all know, in the past, when we were buying cars or shopping, we would go directly to the showroom, the vegetable market, or the supermarket.
However, with the advent of the information age, most of our car and shopping activities are now diverted to various APPs on mobile phones. When buying a car, people often use QC Home, and when shopping, people use various APPs.
That is, various information intermediaries.
But now, with the further development of information technology, the disintermediation of this information world is becoming more and more serious.
Our channels for obtaining information are no longer solely dependent on old newspapers, magazines, or even various apps. We have begun to invest a lot of time in apps such as DouY, Kuaishou, Uzhu, etc.
It realizes the end-to-end direct access of information or knowledge, and further disintermediation of information dissemination.
In the past, the flow of people represented the flow of money;
It is still the same now, but the flow of people in the traditional sense has been defined by these new media, which will inevitably lead to changes in various business models.
This can be seen from the fact that D car D has encountered a development bottleneck.
If we observe carefully, we will find that many second-generation rich people in many companies, and even business owners, have begun to invest heavily in these new media to establish their own personalities, attract their own fans, and thus run their own businesses (selling goods).
This change is likely to be the basis for the digital economy we will develop and the imposition of digital taxes in the future.
In fact, the development of the entire world is a process of technological revolution in information dissemination.
Thousands of years ago, Chinese civilization was born in the Yellow River Basin of my country. After the Xia, Shang and Zhou Dynasties, and the unification of the Qin and Han Dynasties,
During the Tang and Song dynasties, these Chinese civilizations migrated southwards to southern my country, giving rise to a brilliant agricultural and commercial civilization.
Later, after the Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties, Chinese culture further spread to the Middle East and Western Europe through both sea and land routes, giving birth to the Renaissance and the Age of Exploration in Europe.
Now, with the help of information technology, information is exploding.
In the past, it took decades or even hundreds of years to spread news and knowledge thousands or tens of thousands of miles away, but now it can be reached in an instant.
In the past, we only operated in the present.
Now, with the support of the modern financial system, space and time have been folded and compressed to a certain extent, and it is possible to overdraw income for decades to come to purchase commodities such as cars and real estate.
Shopping has also evolved from paying money on delivery to HUA, then JIE, and now pay later...
This kind of information is constantly revolutionized, and when it reaches the stock market, it forms an extreme internal circulation - predicting your prediction, predicting your prediction's prediction, and predicting your prediction's prediction's prediction.
This is a cognitive game.
It is also a battle of thoughts.
The winner takes everything, and the loser loses everything.
3. In the next few days, Putin will first visit Cao County and then visit Vietnam.
The war on the Western Front has basically been won, and this visit should be to further promote T-thinking and deconstruct the old world system.
4. There is a piece of news in China that "the number of employees of listed companies in industries such as automobiles and power equipment exceeds one million, an increase of more than 70% in 10 years."
This has already shown the future development direction of our country. It has transformed from the previous way of relying on real estate as the main industry to drive economic growth (which has completed the urbanization mission) to an economic model that relies mainly on new-quality manufacturing.
Therefore, when we choose jobs and study in the future, we must choose these industries and majors with bright prospects, turn around in time, and embrace the dividends of the times.
Choice is greater than effort.
Once upon a time, civil engineering was a very popular profession.
Nowadays, talents in industries such as chip manufacturing and smart electronics are in short supply, even with high salaries.
5. There is another thing, which is "An open letter from the chairman of Hongtao Co., Ltd.: I am on the verge of bankruptcy for Hongtao."
Old stockholders all know that
If it is a good company, delisting is a good thing;
If it is a bad company, delisting is also a good thing.
But no matter what, anyone with a little common sense will know what is going on when they look at this real estate company that has been making losses and paying out meager dividends.
Today's market:
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3015.07 points and began to rise slowly.
During the session, strong cyclical stocks generally rebounded, with shipping and shipbuilding stocks performing well. COSCO Shipping Special, COSCO Shipping Holdings, and China Merchants Energy Shipping rose by more than 3%, while China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry rose by more than 1%. Liquor, real estate, and coal turned green and weakened.
The market is still lost in anxiety.
The day of breaking the deadlock should be during the interim report period.
Shareholders exchange:
"Cold and indifferent Xiang Yunlue": "For resources, I personally think that it is a short-term peak stage. The reason is that prices are determined by both supply and demand. At present, the supply side can only be said to be stagnant, but the demand side is weak. Unless there is a huge policy push, there will most likely be no improvement in the short term. Just look at the latest macroeconomic m1 and m2 data in May and their details. It will depend on whether the Federal Reserve actively cuts interest rates or passively cuts interest rates. If the interest rate is actively cut, there is still some hope for the global economy. If it is passive, that is, the economy is down or political factors make it impossible to achieve the 2% inflation target, then it is likely to enter a stage of stagflation. According to the logic of the Merrill Lynch clock, it is an era where cash is king and bonds are king. Both commodities and industries will most likely postpone the original cycle until they get out of the stagflation period and enter the recovery period. Of course, all of this is an ideal state. War, technological progress, etc. will change this process. We still have to take it one step at a time."
Yes, the most critical thing now is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Let's discuss this separately, look ahead, make some plans, and be mentally prepared.
It would be ideal if the Federal Reserve cut interest rates normally. This would inevitably lead to a large amount of arbitrage dollars leaving the United States and flowing into other assets in the world, thereby pushing up international asset prices and forming the inflation we most want to see.
But, if the Fed insists on not cutting interest rates.
Then, such a high interest rate will 100% lead to major financial risks in the United States, resulting in a financial crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis.
This raises a serious question,
Can the United States today afford a severe recession against the backdrop of the Sino-US dispute?
In addition, in today's world system, two interconnected supply chains have actually been formed. One is dominated by my country and supplemented by third world countries; the other is dominated by the United States, Europe, the United States and a group of smaller countries.
Currently, one of these two systems is in an inflationary state, and the other is in a quasi-deflationary state.
We can simply understand it as a new rule of world circulation, one is yang and the other is yin, rather than the previous simple Merrill Lynch clock model with the United States as the only system.
So, under this premise, if a financial crisis occurs in the United States, what will the large amount of funds in the country do?
I think that after the initial turmoil (as long as half a year or as short as a few months), a huge amount of funds will abandon overvalued US dollar assets and flow into Chinese assets.
Of course, during this period, international bulk commodities are likely to fall, but as usual, when faced with such a crisis, Europe and the United States will have to flood the market with money to save the market, and then there will be another round of severe inflation.
So, in my opinion, whether the United States lowers interest rates or not, it will not affect the prices of commodities.
The fundamental reason is that the previous commodity prices were distorted and were depressed by colonial exploitation.
Now, against the backdrop of the Sino-US dispute, whether it is unity or cooperation, we need relatively high commodity prices now.
On the one hand, we can give resource-rich countries such as E a certain purchasing power to purchase various industrial products from my country, and unite and bind these countries in terms of interests.
On the other hand, it can also curb the industrialization of other countries and at the same time control deflation in our country.
We can think about it, what will happen if the mother of inflation, the price of oil, and commodity prices plummet?
This will directly lead to a sharp drop in E's fiscal revenue and affect its operations in Europe and the Middle East.
This will directly lead to a sharp drop in the income of third world countries whose main exporters are grain, oil, nonferrous metals and other bulk commodities.
It will also inevitably lead to the direct shutdown of my country's current industrial chain and external demand, and will definitely lead to more serious deflation in my country, and even trigger a serious economic crisis.
This situation has no other benefits except to lower inflation data in Europe and the United States, continue to exploit the colonial world for financial capital, and maintain the quality of life of the upper class.
I believe we can win this round of struggle, and I am betting on it.
The highest good is like water; water benefits all things without contention.
Having said so much, what actually gives me the greatest confidence is that the prices of our country's assets are low globally, and the stock market is low globally.
The future is ours.
After talking so much, it’s time to eat. If you have time, please leave a message to remind me to update and I will give you a free copy of Generate Power for Love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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