Chapter 301 Rethinking the Future Market
Wednesday, June 19, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 5.83, Shanghai Composite Index: 3030
Continue bragging today.
1. Yesterday I tried to discuss with my fellow stock investors the future trend of the macro market, and I feel relatively optimistic.
However, after writing the article and thinking about it carefully, there is still a situation.
That is, will the Americans set up a scheme to destroy the US dollars of many countries and investors that are now gathering in the United States through an artificial crisis?
Then, issue new banknotes, buy these dollars at the bottom, and tearfully liquidate the remaining assets?
This possibility does exist.
Because, in the eyes of capital, there is only profit, no morality.
There are many examples in history, such as the First and Second World Wars, the Korean War and the Yugoslavia during the Cold War, as well as the modern Afghan War, the Syrian War, the Libyan War, etc.
As long as the benefits are big enough, Ken ND would be shot while sitting in a convertible.
As an old stock investor, I find the AI revolution taking place in the U.S. stock market these days very strange.
Today, Nvidia has become the world's stock king, with a market value of more than 3 trillion US dollars. Some analysts say it will soar to 5 trillion US dollars.
Don't tell me its concept. In my eyes, it is just a giant sickle that is still getting bigger and bigger, and it will definitely reap a lot of harvest in the future.
This is no different from the famous tulip bubble and Internet bubble in history.
All of this is done through bubbles, this zero-sum transaction, which harvests a portion of the funds and turns them into the funds of another group of people.
Therefore, we must also pay close attention to when this round of bubble in the US stock market will be cleared.
And the flow of international capital during the clearing period.
2. There is another piece of news that deserves attention these days.
That is, the "Oracle of Oregon" Buffett increased his holdings in Occidental Petroleum for nine consecutive trading days.
In many people's inherent impression, Buffett is value investing, which means holding high-quality assets and slowly getting rich. He is simple and foolish, and he is simple and ingenious.
In fact, Buffett is more like a cyclical investor.
This is a question that many mechanical value investors have always avoided.
It seems that cyclical investment is not mainstream, and only value investment like theirs is mainstream and the true secret of wealth for the stock god.
Little do people know that the real Buffett is the master of cyclical investing.
These, including increasing holdings in Occidental Petroleum for several consecutive years, are classic examples of Buffett's cyclical investment. Going back 20 years, during the last major inflation cycle, Buffett also invested in China Petroleum and reduced his holdings almost at the highest point.
Looking at it from a micro perspective, among Buffett's classic investment cases, such as Coca-Cola, See's Candies, and Apple, which one is not an investment in the stock price and relative value performance cycle?
In itself, the thinking of using 40 cents to buy an asset worth one dollar is a cyclical thinking.
3. Putin visits Cao County and says: "Develop a trade and mutual settlement system that is not controlled by the West"
Accusing the United States of "imposing a so-called 'rules-based order' on the world, which is essentially a 'global neo-colonial dictatorship' based on 'double standards'."
The Slavic people are straightforward in character, and what they say is clear and straightforward.
In fact, what is going on in the world now is a new round of decolonization process.
This process is driven by China and Russia, and responded to by the Middle East and the vast southern countries.
Because, in the old financial colonial system, the price of a certain resource or a certain commodity is not determined solely by the miners or manufacturers, nor is it solely affected by supply and demand. Instead, it is subject to the financial colonial capital interest groups in that system.
Now is the stage of major revaluation of global assets.
Revaluation, the value of the dollar, the value of resources, the value of commodities.
This is the root cause of the frequent conflicts in Europe, the Middle East and Africa this time.
4. Israel issued a notice: "The Israeli army approved the action plan to launch attacks on BN in Lebanon."
The TNYH said: "Lin K assured him that restrictions on arms supplies to Israel would be lifted."
The UK's Maritime Trade Operations Office said: "A cargo ship attacked by the Slipper Militia has sunk."
The fighting in Rafah has not yet ended, and the Lebanese BN war has started again in the northeast.
In the battlefield, the air was filled with smoke, and the small knife slowly cut down, releasing blood.
At this stage, the more chaotic the Middle East and Europe are, the better.
This is because our country is in a critical stage of difficult internal economic and political reform.
Only by slowing down can reform be achieved, and only by facing external pressure can profound reform be achieved.
At this stage, in recent years, the United States has waged a trade war, a technology war, a virus war, a decoupling and supply chain war, and so on against my country.
This kind of pressure is a golden opportunity to carry out internal reforms.
The only way to destroy and interrupt this reform opportunity is to create large-scale incidents and wars around our country.
Therefore, during this period, preferably within three to five years, it would be best to do more things in Ximen to distract the Chou Kingdom and make it unable to look east.
As long as we get through this period of reform, all external problems will no longer be a problem.
We have talked a lot about this issue. The key lies in the July meeting and my country's breakthroughs in the fields of automobiles, chips, and information technology in the next few years.
We have talked a lot about the automotive industry. In the first half of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been close to 50%. It should exceed 50% by the end of the year, and will reach 60% or even 70% next year.
By then, fuel vehicles will become a minority and will be completely replaced by new energy vehicles.
Speaking of the automotive industry, a few days ago, a manager of the joint venture Hyundai was wailing for mercy, asking them to stop involution.
There is no use wailing. This is national policy. It is a life-and-death fight on the economic battlefield.
Looking back at the life-and-death trade war, chip and software blockade war that began in 2018, and then looking at the current automotive industry and the current economic situation at home and abroad, will we hold back?
Definitely not!
Not only will we not do that, we will also organize and strike hard. Not only will we destroy joint venture cars, but we will also go overseas and destroy all Japanese, German, American, and Korean cars sold in the third world!
We should do this not only in the automotive industry, but also in the future chip field!
If we don't destroy your inheritance, we will be irresponsible to our descendants, and we will be irresponsible for the hardships and difficulties we have endured.
5. Harmony.
De-dollarization is continuing to advance, and the excess of US dollars is the world's biggest problem.
At some point in the future, the value of the US dollar will definitely be reset, or even experience a massive devaluation.
By then, there will definitely be a huge surge in gold prices and commodities due to the disorder of the international financial system.
If we still have positions at that time, we must clear them all.
Today's market:
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3029 points and then started to slack off again, fluctuating up and down.
During the trading session, the non-ferrous metals sector, a strong cyclical stock, began to strengthen after more than half a month of adjustment.
China National Gold Group, Yintai Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., and Northern Copper Co., Ltd. rose by more than 3%, China Petroleum and Zijin Mining Co., Ltd. rose by more than 2%, and China Aluminum Corporation and Western Mining Co., Ltd. rose by more than 1%.
The market is shrinking in extreme volume, with undercurrents surging, and seems to be choosing a direction.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "The Cold and Indifferent Xiang Yunlue": "I understand your logic, and I also agree that this situation is possible. There has been recent news that the Middle East intends to decouple oil from the US dollar. If this is actually implemented and the proportion of oil settled in US dollars decreases significantly, it will lead to a weakening of the US dollar's hegemony, thereby reducing the impact of the Merrill Lynch clock on global assets. It may even only affect countries within the US dollar system, while other countries will only suffer the impact. For commodities, I am currently anchoring my view on gold. If gold breaks through and rises, it will undoubtedly be the beginning of another magnificent commodity cycle, and we can just follow it. If gold fluctuates sideways at a high level, then the price of commodities will most likely be determined by supply and demand. There is also a hidden danger in the development of a major commodity market. In the face of currently weak demand, price pressure is unlikely to be transmitted to the consumer end. Then, whether the midstream manufacturing end is willing to accept a sharp increase in raw material prices to work for the mines is also a question mark."
In addition to its industrial properties, gold also has financial properties. Copper, which has stronger financial properties, is best used to observe the price center of commodities. I usually use oil prices to observe the price of bulk commodities.
In addition to monetary factors, commodity prices also depend on supply and demand, and each commodity should be viewed separately.
The supply of copper mines is mainly constrained by the mine end. On the demand side, the big factor is the global dual-carbon strategy, or to put it more profoundly, it is to shift the global energy drive mode from the traditional fuel engine mode to the electricity-based generator mode.
For example, in the automotive sector, fuel engines have been transformed into generators. There are also some signs of this happening in the shipbuilding sector, and there should be further development in warships in the future.
This will inevitably increase the demand for copper.
Of course, to realize these potential demands, further economic development is needed, or in other words, a good mechanism for distributing benefits among global economic development must be established.
Regarding aluminum, I read a report two days ago. Now in my country's domestic industry, the largest demand for aluminum is in the new energy vehicle industry, which has exceeded the traditional real estate industry by one percentage point.
At the same time, domestic electrolytic aluminum indicators are almost running at full capacity.
In the future, as new energy vehicles further replace fuel vehicles, there is no need to worry about demand in this regard.
2. "Chen Xiaotian": I am not moving now, nor do I want to move. It turns out that you cannot use other people's money for investment.
Yes, many stock investors, especially new ones, are ignorant about investment and think that they can become rich overnight by just finding a code and buying it.
In fact, to really make money, you have to rely on your own knowledge and long-term stock holdings.
Therefore, I don’t like and rarely talk about specific codes, because I don’t get a penny from the profits, and I will be blamed by others if I lose money.
Therefore, I still recommend that when choosing stocks, do not blindly follow others, do not trust anyone, including me, and follow your own cognition.
Don't be as hasty as buying a piece of clothing or a commodity. Instead, do thorough homework. At least in this game, you have to find out where your cognition is higher than others, or at least have a higher level of cognition than others.
Before I knew it, it was lunchtime, and today's market is like this. Fellow investors, please take the time to click on the reminder button and send me a free love bonus.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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