Chapter 304: Re-understanding and Prospecting the Future Market
Saturday, June 22, 2024.
It's the weekend, we have some time, let's continue bragging.
1. Yesterday, the pure-blooded Hongmeng was officially announced.
The operating system is like the "land" used for cultivation on the Internet in the era of information technology revolution.
In the past, there were only three systems: Microsoft, Android, and Apple.
Developers and consumers have to develop and cultivate various APPs on these three "lands".
Against the backdrop of the Sino-US dispute, and in light of the lessons learned from the technology war and the chip war, this is tantamount to handing over one's lifeline to the hands of others, which is not allowed.
Therefore, we must have our own operating system, Hongmeng, and our own "land".
The "land" problem has been solved, and the next issue is chip manufacturing.
As long as these two major problems are resolved, the US information technology blockade against China in this round will be declared a complete failure.
This period of time will not be too long, only about two to three years.
2. Yesterday, I thought a lot about the issue of "capital" and found many points worthy of attention.
Looking at the history of my country's modern industrialization development, we will find that my country has always been in a situation where capital is extremely scarce.
We first introduced capital from the former SL around 1950, and then more than ten years later, we were forced to de-depend on the former SL capital.
Then, after 1970, we introduced international capital from Europe and the United States, and now we are undergoing painful de-dependence.
This is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue, and more importantly, a practical issue.
Capital is just an abstract expression. Its scarcity lies in the advanced scientific and technological knowledge, industrial equipment, key raw materials, etc. that back it.
In the past, during the development of our country, these capitals were scarce, so during the development, capital was relatively strong.
As we develop, we must lean towards capital, which has created a feast of capital wealth in the past few decades.
Therefore, we say that we should allow some people to get rich first, and then the rich can help others get rich.
However, at this stage, there are only a few technological commanding heights that are shaky and still blocked.
Capital, especially international capital, is no longer scarce for our country.
The technologies, equipment, and resources represented by these capitals are either blocked, breached, or can be replaced.
What is even more worrying is that due to the extensive development in the past few decades, and even the excessive financialization in some areas (finance, real estate, education and training, etc.), capital has been extremely exploiting the people, which has resulted in a lot of debts.
It is time to govern, repay debts, and fulfill the promise of letting the rich help the poor.
This is also the time to cultivate our own domestic demand, develop our own middle class, and balance capital output and labor output.
This is why there have been rumors spreading online and among the public these days.
In fact, this situation is not uncommon. It has occurred many times in Europe and the United States in history.
Ultimately, it comes down to reconciling the contradictions between capital and labor.
As early as the late 19th century and early 20th century, due to the excessive exploitation of capital, international financial crises and workers' confrontations occurred again and again.
Later, in order to reconcile this contradiction, capital had to make concessions, which led to the current high welfare society in Europe and the trade unions in the United States.
We have come to this step and will inevitably take this step, which is of course also a step towards localization in China.
3. It is said that Canada is also preparing to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
As my country gradually conquers high-profit, high-value-added industries such as automobiles, chips, and mobile phones one by one.
The disadvantaged European and American countries had to start closing their doors to the outside world and turn completely to the right. This was an instinctive defensive measure in the face of external threats.
While we sympathize, we should not hold back, but open our markets, unite billions of people in third world countries, and build a freer, fairer, and stronger trade network.
4. These days, many people on the Internet are shouting "volume", which is normal, but also a little abnormal.
Objectively speaking, my country is in a stage where the rich first bring happiness to the others, and is at a moment when various types of financial capital are giving up their interests relative to industrial capital and ordinary workers. This will help to make the country no longer as "competitive" as before through the transfer of profits.
However, this concession is only a safety net, not a transitional welfare.
The best way to avoid being a "roller" is to have a good father to protect you.
The reason why Europe and the United States are not involved is because their fathers of the previous generation, the previous generation, and the previous generation colonized and plundered the world for 500 years.
Moreover, it is still colonizing the whole world.
If we don’t want to be competitive, we must work hard and give our offspring a good father.
Choice is greater than effort.
Now that the domestic market is basically saturated, the future incremental blue ocean market is abroad.
Throughout history, there were many people in Britain who lost out in domestic competition.
By going overseas, they suddenly became the upper class in the local area and achieved a class transition in a sense.
There will be more and more stories like this as my country integrates Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa.
Shareholders exchange:
1. Username 92144803:
"I've been watching some stock market trends lately. Some seem like they're being deliberately withdrawn. Some companies that issued convertible bonds don't even have to redeem their bonds after their stocks are delisted. Some of these withdrawn bonds were issued for 100 yuan, but are now worth only a few yuan. Essentially, they borrowed money and don't have to pay it back. This is like outright fraud and robbery. How can investors have confidence in a market like this?"
1. This is a very healthy process of survival of the fittest, which allows stocks that should be delisted to be delisted quickly, and transfers funds to stocks that should rise.
That is why I have repeatedly emphasized that it is best for everyone to invest in central and state-owned enterprises. Private enterprises have been the hardest hit by counterfeiting in the past few years.
2. I have repeatedly talked about the question of whether there is a bull market.
From a narrow perspective, if we extend the time axis from mid-2020 to the present, in this round of major inflation cycle, almost all strong cyclical stocks are in a bull market.
From a broad perspective, the three conditions for a bull market that I previously judged to be brewing remain unchanged - monetary policy, policy concerns, and index position.
However, in the past few months, the index has risen and fallen, fallen and risen again, tormenting everyone to the point of numbness and despair.
Those who bought, all lay flat, those who sold, all lay flat too,
I estimate that 99% of people, including those of you who are reading this chapter, will scoff at the idea that a bull market is coming, and that’s a good thing.
This is also normal.
Because no one can see, and cannot perceive, any sector that can drive a bull market.
However, every bull market is different, and unique sectors will emerge. These sectors, without exception, are accompanied by a surge in performance, and beyond everyone's expectations, the performance continues to surge.
Typical examples include the real estate sector in 2007, the liquor sector in 2020, and the strong cyclical sector in 2021.
Now, the interim report is about to come. From the limited information, I can judge that strong cyclical stocks will perform well in the interim report.
In addition, after repeated reflection, I personally feel that I need to slightly revise some of my previous judgments.
In the field of smart cars, Wenjie and Xiangjie, due to their high prices and high profit positioning as substitutes for high-end luxury cars such as BBA, are likely to form a dominance similar to that of Huawei in the mobile phone field.
As for the stock price and victory or defeat, it depends on the game between bulls and bears.
2. "Xiong Debiao who likes naked oats": Science student, what majors have good job prospects? Recommendations.
Personally, I think programming is pretty good, a panacea. In the future, employment does not depend on personal connections or background. As long as you have the ability, big companies will hire you.
Moreover, this industry is a job for young people. A new group of people will be replaced at the age of 35. As long as you are willing to work hard, you will have the opportunity to take over the position of the previous generation of seniors.
3. Li Yunbiao who likes fir: "I don't know why, but the weather this year is very unusual. It's sunny when I go out, but it rains heavily when I get home."
This is the year of the greatest solar flare eruption, and the climate is very abnormal. There are floods in the south of our country and drought in the north. We don’t know what will happen in the second half of the year.
I couldn’t sleep yesterday and woke up around four or five in the morning. I checked my phone for a while before falling asleep. I originally thought it was because I drank too much tea.
As a result, when I went online, I saw that many big Vs were also complaining about not being able to sleep last night.
I had some free time on the weekend and talked a lot, but I didn’t understand what I was saying.
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