Chapter 311 Waiting is the best choice
Thursday, July 4, 2024.
Jisi Lu: 4.1, Shanghai Composite Index: 2984 points.
I haven’t updated for a few days, and several new hot spots have appeared in the market these days.
1. Last night, the U.S. June “small non-farm” ADP exceeded expectations, and expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut rose again.
The Americans are playing the expectation game again.
In fact, at this moment, our country hopes for another "oil crisis" to cause global inflation.
On the one hand, it can hit the European and American economies with inflation, and on the other hand, it can pull my country out of deflation.
However, the competition between China and the United States will not be decided overnight, so the game in politics, economy and finance is also a long process.
What is more likely is that when the United States cuts interest rates at the end of this year or early next year, my country will begin to drive global inflation.
This has once again put the United States in a dilemma.
Keep cutting interest rates, and inflation will come back.
If we don’t cut interest rates, the economy won’t improve.
By then, our country will be in a more comfortable position.
2. NHK reports: "Honda and Nissan are considering jointly developing an operating system for passenger cars."
This year, my country's passenger car market has officially entered the era of smart cars.
However, neighboring Japan has not yet mastered the car computer system.
The backwardness of the system is the most terrifying.
In this era of smart cars, the software and intelligence of cars are undoubtedly a major blow to Japan, which has no Internet genes.
In this regard, many people often cite the fact that Japan's automobile industry's sales volume is still the highest in the world.
If we open our eyes and polish them, we can see that the vast majority of Japanese car sales come from fuel vehicles.
Now, the world is in the process of transitioning from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, and my country has begun to transition from new energy vehicles to smart vehicles.
Japanese cars are already on the decline.
The development trend of the industry is similar to that of stock trading, which also depends on expectations, the future, and growth.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
Therefore, when we invest, we must stay away from traditional fuel vehicle companies and parts companies in the market.
3. In the past few days, the trading volume of the two markets has continued to decline, and yesterday it had shrunk to 580 billion yuan.
In this regard, we cannot simply use the traditional bull-bear thinking.
We need to look at this in the broader context of building a strong financial nation.
In the past few months, our country has begun to carry out drastic rectification in the financial field.
From the overall effect, quantitative trading has been restricted to a certain extent through various channels, and speculative behavior has been greatly curbed through strong supervision, strict delisting and other measures.
This led to a large amount of funds starting to choose to invest in high-dividend blue-chip stocks.
This situation coincides with my country's advocacy of endurance investment.
So, don’t be jealous or even curse the continued rise in the stock prices of today’s blue-chip stocks.
Instead, you should change your mindset and treat what you think is abnormal as normal market behavior for a period of time in the future.
In the United States, a normal rise in stock indexes is often driven by the continuous rise of several, dozens, or even dozens of stocks.
The rest of the stocks are just for show.
It is very likely that A-shares will become like this, and we need to get used to it and become familiar with it.
After all, the 80/20 rule exists in any field or industry.
Excellence belongs only to a few people, a few industries, and a few companies.
Most of the others are just running along.
If you don’t believe it, just look at Apple in the mobile phone industry. One person took away more than 80% of the industry’s profits.
Of course, we also have to be careful and try not to chase the stocks of these sectors.
Because every market will be in the limelight for several years, and every stage has its own blue chip stocks and track stocks.
In a few years, the flags on the city walls will change.
4. In the past two days, the market has started to hype two hot spots.
One is the surge in real estate transactions. For example, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions hit a 40-month high, which hyped up the recovery of the real estate industry. The other is that the liquor industry began to hype up the overall recovery of the industry through topics such as price increases and meetings, and began to stop falling and stabilize.
I am cautious about this.
It seems that I am cautious about many industries and doubt all rationality.
Because, when we look back at the development of the real estate industry in the last round, or even the last few rounds,
We will find that the performance explosion of the real estate industry and the pig farming industry in 2019 is similar.
Its success was a historical accident.
Looking back at the pig farming industry in 2019, the outbreak was due to swine fever, which superimposed on the pig cycle, resulting in a historic double-click event.
Looking at the real estate industry, its performance continues to explode, which is due to the continuous rise in prices in my country's real estate sector.
To put it more thoroughly, because my country's local tax base is in the real estate industry, it has led to the excessive financialization of the real estate industry as a collusion between government and business.
But now, it is obvious that this road has been blocked and cannot be taken (rumors of consumer SHUI reform have already begun).
The historical background and the dividends of the times have disappeared.
Therefore, the historical performance of these industries is gone forever, and what remains is only, or perhaps only, reasonable performance.
Please forget the past glory of these industries and accept the mediocrity of their future.
Regarding my judgment on the liquor industry, I still maintain my previous judgment: this is a good industry, an excellent business model and enterprise, but it is not a good price now.
Wait a little longer, be patient.
In fact, many times, the investment opportunities we find and the good investment results we achieve are not because of how smart we are.
Rather, it is because we are standing at the forefront of the trend and reaping the dividends of the times.
For example, the real estate wealth cycle that lasted for many years, the liquor inventory cycle, the pig cycle, the financial credit cycle, and so on.
Therefore, we should respect the market and be grateful to it, rather than being arrogant and looking down on others.
5. According to reports: "'Copper Country' Zambia has made using US dollars a crime."
The decline of the United States is visible to the naked eye and known to the world.
This is somewhat similar to the background of the 1970s when the United States fell behind in the US-Soviet rivalry, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, the US dollar depreciated sharply, and inflation broke out.
However, the competition between the two powers back then has turned into the three-kingdoms war today.
The dollar's global status is closely related to its economic and military strength.
If nothing unexpected happens, with the weakening of the US's dominance in information technology, the continued decline in manufacturing, and the US military's advantage over the East, it will go from being far ahead to catching up, and then falling behind...
The status of the US dollar is in jeopardy.
In the second half of this year and the first half of next year, it is very likely that with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the narrowing of international interest rate gaps, we will emerge from a weak dollar cycle and drive up commodity prices.
And this is exactly what we expect.
Today's market:
Today the market opened high at 2984 and then began to decline continuously.
During the trading session, sectors such as gold, copper, nonferrous metals and shipping were strong, while the real estate sector began to fall again after rebounding for two days.
Before the important meeting, it seemed that the index began to fluctuate around 3,000 points.
Be neither hasty nor slow, neither arrogant nor impatient.
This coincides with the overall political and economic governance approach this year of seeking progress while maintaining stability.
Waiting is the best choice.
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