Chapter 314: The mid-year report market for strong cyclical stocks officially begins
Tuesday, July 9, 2024.
Jisilu: 3.34, Shanghai Composite Index: 2919 points
Yesterday, Zijin Mining, China Shipbuilding, Tianshan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial jointly released their interim reports.
Not surprisingly, both saw significant year-on-year growth.
Under the catalysis of the significant increase in the mid-term performance of these very representative strong cyclical stocks,
Today, strong cyclical stock sectors such as gold, copper, aluminum and shipbuilding rose strongly.
Zhongfu Industrial hit the daily limit, Tianshan Aluminum rose more than 8%, China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, Western Mining, and Jiaozuo Wanfang rose more than 3%, and Zijin Mining, China Shipbuilding, and COSCO Shipping all rose more than 2%.
Driven by strong cyclical sectors, the market quickly rose and turned positive, bringing a ray of hope to the long-dried stock market and a glimmer of hope to the desperate investors.
Performance is the criterion for everything.
Only performance that exceeds expectations can save the dying market.
Alternatively, we can look at this issue from another perspective and look at the current market.
That is, the current market index is both reasonable and unreasonable.
It is reasonable because the entire market is still filled with a large number of listed companies that are still defrauding money, so the market keeps falling.
It is unreasonable because, in the entire market, there are also a large number of companies with unreasonable pricing or undervalued pricing, which need to be repriced.
At this stage, under the overall macroeconomic strategy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", the entire market is experiencing violent fluctuations and revaluations.
Overvalued stocks will continue to fall.
Those that are underestimated will return to their rightful place.
Eventually, a new, relatively reasonable balance is reached.
Finally, it may trigger another round of group craze.
Recent news:
1. Russian Ambassador to China: "JZ countries are breaking away from the dominance of the US dollar and developing a truly independent financial system."
It is a global consensus that the world dollar system is gradually declining with the decline of the United States' national strength.
The only disagreement is whether the US dollar will account for 10%, 15%, or 20% of international currency settlements in the future?
Therefore, we must have adequate plans for this.
There are two main impacts on investment:
On the one hand, as we have repeatedly emphasized, the downward trend and depreciation of the US dollar index has led to an increase in the prices of commodities, especially gold and copper, which have the strongest financial attributes;
Another aspect is the losses and gains brought about by exchange rates, which requires us to conduct a more prudent assessment of the investment targets.
In the 2023 financial statements of many central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, we saw a huge reduction in financial trade volume. I wonder if it was due to this consideration.
2. Rumor: "US extends restrictions on Chinese chip technology to traditional chips."
The donkey from Guizhou was at its wit's end and became extremely angry and frustrated.
I hope there will be sanctions against Chinese football.
In fact, from this perspective, my country should have a very big breakthrough in the field of traditional chips.
This is indeed unacceptable for Country M.
3. my country's deep-sea heavy-duty mining vehicle exceeded 4,000 meters in sea trials.
Ocean area accounts for 71% of the earth.
To support our country's modernization, we must have massive resources to support it.
The mineral resources on land are all owned by owners, and the cost of mining is getting higher and higher.
Therefore, the biggest trump card that will support us in continuing to carry out modernization in the future is to demand space and resources from the ocean.
In the ocean, photovoltaic power stations can be laid on the water surface and tidal power stations can be built; fish can be raised and caught in the water; and oil and minerals can be extracted underwater.
All of this requires strong industrial capabilities.
And this is what we are good at.
Will there be a steel city floating on the ocean in the future?
4. BYD built a factory in Türkiye and is considering building a factory in Peru.
You have resources, I have technology, we can benefit from each other and erode the economic hegemony of the European and American automotive sectors.
Follow me and you will have meat to eat.
At this stage, or in other words, it has become a consensus in the industry.
That is, when it comes to exporting production capacity, site selection is very important, and we must choose countries that are friendly to China.
We should be cautious about capacity expansion in countries unfriendly to China.
For example, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. sold its copper and gold mines in Australia. Zijin Mining's major overseas investments are basically concentrated in countries friendly to China.
5. Kuaigou Taxi: "Tianjin's commission rate is reduced to 10%", Shanghai and Beijing plan to support self-driving taxis.
Unmanned technology is advancing with each passing day, and the current platform monopoly and commission model is about to be subverted by driverless taxis.
Will taxis in the future transform from the current service industry into a capital-intensive industry?
Or does it mean that, in a certain sense, the exploitation of man by man in the past has been replaced by technology serving man?
6. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs: "Beware of a Q3 correction in US stocks," "Hedge funds dumped tech stocks and poured into energy and materials sectors at the fastest pace in five months."
In addition, U.S. inflation expectations have fallen for two consecutive months.
This is all in response to the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut.
As for whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the third quarter, it doesn’t matter.
Because, it will eventually cut interest rates.
Today, the long-awaited mid-year report market has begun. Let’s breathe a sigh of relief. Fellow stockholders, if you have time, please send me a reminder or send me some feedback.
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