Chapter 315: Witnessing History: The Sino-US Financial War: The Winner Has Been Decided
Monday, August 5, 2024.
This global impact, which involves the restructuring of the global capital market, has been brewing for a very, very long time.
We once thought that this game of hypoglycemia vs. hypertension would continue for a long time.
However, unexpectedly, the release of the US non-farm data last Friday directly accelerated and even triggered this historic change.
Moreover, once it explodes, it becomes uncontrollable and chaos ensues.
The rise and fall of the capital market has officially begun.
The winner of the Sino-US financial war has been decided.
Now, let's review what happened last Friday.
1. The U.S. non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations.
Last Friday night, the U.S. non-farm payroll data was 114,000, far below expectations, which directly detonated the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -1.51%, the S&P 500 fell -1.84%, and the Nasdaq fell -2.43%. Intel plummeted -26.06%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 5%, entering a technical bear market.
The US dollar index fell more than 1%.
At the same time, the offshore RMB once soared by more than 1,000 basis points!
The stock market crash, the devaluation of the US dollar, and unexpected data directly ignited public opinion in the United States.
Major banks have begun to predict that the scale of the Fed's interest rate cut will be far greater than expected.
Barclays predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, October and December this year, by 25 basis points each time.
JPMorgan Chase predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November this year.
Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November, respectively, and by 25 basis points in December.
It seemed that the situation had reversed overnight.
The Fed's interest rate cut has gone from being repeatedly delayed to being a "done deal."
Data can be controlled.
Therefore, the release of this data was intended to provide a way out for interest rate cuts.
Moreover, never doubt the greed of capitalists. You must believe that long before the interest rate cut, the big capitalists in the United States had already completed their turnaround.
2. Buffett liquidated his holdings in Bank of America and his holdings in Apple were also halved.
There has never been a stock god in the world.
In addition to solid investment philosophy, what Ba relies on is more insider information.
Therefore, anyone in China who stubbornly invests according to Buffett's philosophy does not understand the U.S. stock market.
The interest rate cut cycle is bad for bank stocks, so Ba Shen will reduce his holdings in advance;
Apple will definitely face a more serious performance crisis in the future, so he will cut his stock price in half, and it is not ruled out that he has already cleared out his Apple holdings.
3. “Black Monday” in European and American stock markets
Today is "Black Monday" for European and American stock markets including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia.
In Japan, the Nikkei index plummeted 6% shortly after opening, triggering a circuit breaker. In the afternoon, the Nikkei index plummeted to 10%, triggering a second circuit breaker! After resuming trading, it plummeted another 12%!
In South Korea, the KOSPI index plummeted 5% in the morning, Samsung fell more than 6%, and the index plummeted to 8% in the afternoon, triggering a circuit breaker!
Also, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by more than 5%!
At the same time, A-shares fell less than 1% and the offshore RMB appreciated by 400 points.
Anyone with a little common sense knows that the world of the global capital market has changed.
The U.S. stock market should be very exciting tonight.
Because, due to various leverage factors, once the U.S. stock market turns, it will definitely be a devastating collapse.
4. my country's 30-year main contract rose by 0.62% to 112.39 yuan, setting a new record again!
Globally, the transformation of capital markets between China and the United States has officially begun.
I personally think that the current U.S. stock market is very dangerous, especially the "Seven Sisters" in the Nasdaq. U.S. bonds are also relatively dangerous for us.
Because, although the price of U.S. bonds will rise during the interest rate cut cycle, don’t ignore the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
If you are an individual investor, if you buy U.S. bonds at this time, it is very likely that the profits you get will not be enough to offset the losses caused by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
In addition, I personally believe that the risks in my country's bond market are gradually accumulating and should be avoided appropriately.
Because the global capital market has begun to restructure.
The start of the interest rate cut cycle in the United States is an opportunity for my country to start a cycle of interest rate hikes (it is very likely that the interest rate hike cycle will start next year).
Therefore, at this stage, it is inappropriate for China to continue to speculate on dividend stocks amid the madness of its national debt.
The interest rate hike cycle is bearish for the bond market.
5. The situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly tense.
Many countries including the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Sweden urged their residents to evacuate Lebanon.
Judging from various signs, it is very likely that conflict or even war will break out between Israel and Lebanon after the Olympics.
In the next six months, historic events will occur in all parts of the world and in all markets.
It's really exciting.
(Russia, the Middle East, capital markets, and the US election).
Today's market:
The flow of international capital has officially begun to change.
I personally think that we have won this financial battle. The A-share market has officially embarked on a bull market, and the bear market that has lasted for more than three years has officially ended!
In the following years, with the continued decline of European and American capital markets and the central bank's interest rate cuts, international capital will continue to flow into my country's capital market.
In the past, European and American capital markets have reaped the benefits of the three-year financial war.
In the future, my country's capital market and Chinese investors will also reap the benefits of victory for at least two to three years.
Please hold on tightly to the high-quality chips at the bottom and wait for the hot money to come and support you!
Tonight, the U.S. stock market is expected to have a wonderful performance.
If the U.S. economy collapses or even experiences a circuit breaker, the possibility of an interest rate cut in August cannot be ruled out!
Of course, at this moment, there must be many, many financial media, big Vs, crying and shouting,
What global financial crisis?
What European and American stock markets collapsed?
What should I do if the sky falls?
Get out of the way!
This is Big A, not Europe or America,
Europe and the United States have been rising for so many years, and they have been sucking blood from high-priced deposits for so long. Wouldn’t it be better if they fell?
Stop using the collapse of European and American stock markets to scare people.
Only when the European and American stock markets collapse will global capital flow back to the A-share market, which is a huge boon for the A-share market!
The European and American stock markets have collapsed, and we should be very happy and have a drink to celebrate.
Without their collapse, how could we have our good times?
Shareholders exchange: "Spring flowers are in full bloom, red like fire":
"Dear author, I have a question. The pharmaceutical sector has seen unusual activity recently. The leading pharmaceutical companies are bottoming out, and the government's centralized procurement of pharmaceuticals has also come to an end. The pharmaceutical sector has experienced several years of decline, and its valuation is already relatively low. The government has also released positive news for the pharmaceutical sector. The prices of certain mycins have increased recently, an anthrax outbreak has occurred in Shandong, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is also good for the pharmaceutical sector. In summary, does the pharmaceutical sector have an opportunity?"
I don’t know much about the pharmaceutical sector.
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