Chapter 316 Now, the most important issues to focus on
Tuesday, August 6, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.58, Shanghai Composite Index: 2878.65 points.
Last night, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.
Today, the Nikkei index rebounded violently.
It seems that nothing has happened in the capital market.
But is this crisis really over?
Or is this crisis still brewing?
Next, let’s discuss some of the most important issues at present.
1. A hard landing or a soft landing?
1. If the European and American capital markets experience a hard landing,
In the future, there will definitely be a financial crisis as devastating as the 2007 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Continuous circuit breakers and multiple market rescues will occur.
There may even be a significant interest rate cut, and it is not ruled out that the interest rate cut will be to an unimaginable level.
However, a substantial interest rate cut coupled with money printing will inevitably lead to high inflation in the future.
Take 2020 as an example. After the U.S. stock market plummeted, the Federal Reserve frantically cut interest rates to almost 0, which directly led to severe inflation a year later.
Of course, we will not forget that the great crisis caused a sharp drop in commodity prices, and crude oil prices once fell to negative.
2. If the European and American capital markets experience a soft landing in the future, there will definitely be a downward trend of three steps forward and three steps back.
Funds are slowly fleeing to the bond market for risk aversion, and even crossing oceans to seek risk aversion in my country's capital market.
In this way, the A-share market will naturally be slowly lifted up, and due to the interest rate cut, it will have an upward push on commodity prices.
Therefore, in the coming year, regardless of whether the European and American capital markets experience a hard landing or a soft landing, commodities will rise again, and the possibility of a surge cannot be ruled out.
Especially for those varieties that have not risen before.
At this stage, the focus of the game is what to do if the European and American economies experience a hard landing and a financial crisis occurs?
We should also take corresponding countermeasures for this possibility. We can consider reducing a small portion of commodity positions to deal with it (two sides of the same coin: it avoids risks, but also carries the risk of a soft landing of the economy and missing out).
However, no matter how we operate, we must remember that when a hard landing crisis comes,
That is, when commodity prices plummet, you must buy again and hold positions to enjoy future inflation.
2. Where will the future hot spots be?
Every crisis is accompanied by a reconstruction of investment logic.
After the stock market crash in 2015, the liquor, real estate and financial sectors rose.
After the stock market crash in 2020, the liquor, new energy, and consumer sectors soared.
So, at this critical moment when the European and American capital markets are coming to an end and my country's capital market is about to rise,
Where will the future hot spots be?
1. Commodities.
The great inflation cycle is still ongoing.
However, many varieties have already been completed, and many varieties are on the way.
After the Fed’s interest rate cut this time, a large amount of liquidity will flow into commodities, which will inevitably lead to an increase in commodity prices.
2. Smart car.
Every era has its own products and hot spots, and each generation is different.
Just like, 2014 was the Internet boom, 2016-2017 was the carnival of the real estate sector, liquor sector, and home appliance sector, and 2020 was the boom of consumption, liquor and new energy industries.
In the future, smart cars will directly lead my country's automobile industry, complete the integration of the domestic automobile field, go overseas to seize the market, and transform my country from a major automobile country to a strong automobile country.
This is a grand narrative with both achievements and themes, which is bound to become a raging fire in the future.
3. The concept of RMB appreciation.
The European and American capital markets have come to an end, and the US dollar has entered a depreciation cycle, and the possibility of a sharp depreciation cannot be ruled out.
Therefore, in the future market, stocks related to the concept of RMB appreciation will appear.
In my impression, there are sectors such as aviation and papermaking.
However, when investing in these stocks, you still have to base your investment on performance and choose good stocks with high growth and good performance.
Without performance, everything is like water without a source and a tree without roots.
4. Shipping and shipbuilding.
With the rise in commodity prices in the future, the shipping industry will continue to prosper, and shipbuilding performance will be slowly released, forming a linked hype hotspot in the future.
5. Chip field.
In addition to performance, what killed the seven sisters of the US stock market was also my country's technological strength.
In the future, my country will significantly surpass the United States in the information industry (chip manufacturing and localization of operating systems), which will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in the performance of technology stocks in the U.S. stock market.
For example, Apple, Qualcomm, Intel... and so on.
This is all to be expected.
However, the competition in the chip field is fierce, the PE is very high, and there is too much speculation, so you must be cautious when investing (bloggers generally do not touch technology stocks).
6. Fellow investors are welcome to add to and discuss.
At this time of great change, the capital market will definitely experience severe turbulence, and the possibility of both good and bad being swept away cannot be ruled out.
The blogger chose to hold most of the positions (more than 80%), betting on the future hot spots.
Keep a small amount of cash to gamble on the European and American capital markets and the possibility of a major economic crisis.
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