Chapter 317 This year, it is getting harder and harder
Monday, July 22, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.92, Shanghai Composite Index: 2978 points.
Today, dividend stocks in the A-share market collapsed across the board, with coal, oil and banks plummeting.
It seems that there is no safe sector in the entire market.
There are traps and mines everywhere.
Even if the LPR is cut by another 10 basis points today, it will not help.
Li Feng has been alone in the study, studying hard for a long time.
Clouds of smoke floated out from it from time to time.
Zhao Xinyue frowned, opened the door and looked out, only to see Li Feng frowning, lighting a cigarette, and looking at the display screen with a serious expression.
The display screen was all green.
In front of the display screen, the ashtray was filled with cigarette butts, so densely packed that I counted them and there were probably more than a dozen.
"You, what's wrong?" Zhao Xinyue walked over slowly and asked softly, "Did you encounter any problems with your investment?"
She frowned, recalling the past.
It seems that Li Feng hasn't had such a serious expression on his face for several years.
The last time seemed to be in 2020.
Why this time?
"That's right..." Li Feng sighed softly, extinguished the cigarette in his hand, and said, "Oil is the mother of inflation, but Trump is about to take office. He wants to withdraw from the Climate Agreement and vigorously exploit traditional energy sources such as oil..."
"If the price of oil falls, then the prices of other commodities will also fall, which will naturally reduce inflationary pressure in the United States..."
Li Feng explained slowly. Although he knew that Zhao Xinyue might not understand very well, at least she had someone to talk to.
"Since there are changes in the investment, let's sell it. It seems that we will still make a profit this year." Zhao Xinyue thought for a while and said.
"Sell?" Li Feng gave a wry smile and continued, "Oil prices are determined not only by supply and demand, but also by political issues."
"In the foreseeable future, China, Russia, the Middle East, and even the European and American oil tycoons will definitely support relatively high oil prices, while Trump supports low oil prices..."
"So, in the context of future US interest rate cuts, whether oil prices will rise or fall is not only a political issue, but also an economic one. It even determines the military strength of China, the US, and Russia in the game."
"Low oil prices will seriously weaken Russia's military power and the economic strength of the Middle East, which is unacceptable. High oil prices, in Trump's view, will seriously increase domestic inflation, which is also unacceptable."
“So, the inflation outlook for the next year, even though we’re going to cut interest rates, is still harder to discern than it was during previous rate hikes.”
"This involves the game between China, the United States and Russia."
"What's more, if we hold stocks like coal and oil, we will definitely liquidate them. But now we have to hold positions, and they have only doubled from the lowest point in 2020, which is relatively low in the entire industry cycle."
"Now, whether buying or selling, it is too difficult because the future has become increasingly unpredictable."
Li Feng expressed his worries and hesitations in almost one breath.
His expression was quite solemn.
Because, if this kind of decision involving the direction of strategic investment is made wrong, you will be hit from both sides, but if it is done right, you will be on the fast track to the future.
What's more, Li Feng seemed to be under a spell.
That is, every time he liquidated a stock, the stock would immediately rise sharply.
Whenever he bought a stock, it would immediately plummet.
It's really hard to describe and extremely uncomfortable.
——————
With Trump about to take office, expectations of high inflation will be severely tested, making future investment more difficult.
This year, it's getting harder and harder.
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