Chapter 322: Hold on! Hold on! Please hold on to your chips!
Monday, October 7, 2024.
Please hold on to your chips!
Fellow investors, please hold on to your chips!
Hold it!
Important things should be said three times and repeatedly.
Remember, this is not a bear market, but a bull market.
Moreover, it is still the early stage of the bull market, which is the easiest stage for making money.
At this stage, the opportunities far outweigh the risks.
Just like the four seasons of the sky, now is the season of spring when flowers are in full bloom, and it is the time for you and me to enjoy a leisurely outing.
Instead of the autumn harvest, when the money is in the bag,
Not even in the winter, when we are trembling with fear,
At this moment, you just need to stay still and do nothing. As long as you can suppress the greed in your heart and suppress the fear in your heart, you can let the boat go with the water and rise with the water.
Although, a few days ago, I repeatedly emphasized that we must hold on to our chips, resist the turmoil in our hearts, overcome the greed in our hearts, and change our bear market thinking into a bull market thinking,
However, in the exchanges among stockholders,
Many stock friends are taking profits and running.
Some sold 10% or 20% of their positions.
Some have sold 30% to 40% of their positions.
Some have sold half of their positions or even have no positions at all.
However, as I said before, in investment, missing out is also a risk.
If you sell your position at this point, at what point do you want to buy it back in the future?
If, by any chance, you cannot buy back the corresponding position in the future,
what to do? !
This is destined to be an unsolvable answer.
A-shares will open tomorrow, and we will also review some important events that happened at home and abroad during this National Day.
1. The U.S. non-farm payroll data increased by 254,000, far exceeding expectations, and the U.S. dollar index rose accordingly.
American data is like a little girl who can be dressed up by anyone.
When they didn't want to cut interest rates, the economy was unusually strong and remained strong until August.
However, once they want to cut interest rates, they start to "correct" and even "change their faces" and directly revise down the million-dollar data, and the market also starts to trade in recession.
Now, having just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and seeing that the capital market is starting to go bullish, they immediately started to turn "hawkish".
If I want to make corrections, I can make corrections downwards by millions of data. If I want to turn into an "eagle", it can increase by 69%. It is like jumping up and down, and I can control it at will.
That's really interesting.
It's also ridiculous.
2. The Middle East is in a state of conflict between Israel, Iraq and Lebanon, and oil prices are rising.
The Americans are scratching their heads.
We are in a dilemma when facing inflation.
At this stage, in order to ensure stability during the election, it is estimated that they will have to resort to rhetoric and fabricate false data to maintain stability.
Once the election is over, it is very likely that the depreciation of the US dollar will accelerate.
The high inflation at that time will be a bit sour.
3. Some estimates on future market conditions.
1. When the market opens on October 8, there should be a surge and general rise in prices.
Because during the National Day holiday, the FTSE China A50 soared 14.09% and the Hang Seng Index soared 9.30%, which directly exerted upward traction on the A-share market.
Moreover, during the National Day holiday, the news of the bull market continued to ferment on various self-media platforms. New investors flocked in, and major securities firms worked overtime to review stocks until eight o'clock in the evening.
More importantly, GXB will hold a meeting on October 8 to introduce the policy of "systematically implementing a package of incremental policies, firmly promoting the upward trend of the economy, optimizing its structure, and continuously improving the development trend" to continue to increase stimulus to the stock market.
It is very likely that A-shares will open significantly higher tomorrow, and some sectors will open at the daily limit until closing, and market sentiment will continue to be high.
2. The liquor and securities sectors have achieved rapid growth and the market is about to diverge.
In recent days, the liquor sector and the securities sector have continued to soar, especially the securities sector, the flagship of the bull market, which has continued to hit the daily limit.
During the National Day holiday, real estate stocks and securities stocks listed on the Hong Kong stock market went crazy, and some stocks even skyrocketed several times in just a few days!
For example, China Merchants Securities' closing price on September 30th was 9.10 yuan, which has soared to 25.90 yuan today, a surge of 284%.
CITIC Securities' closing price on September 30th was 20.55 yuan, which has soared to 30.80 yuan today, a surge of nearly 50%.
Huatai Securities' closing price on September 30th was 12.52 yuan, which has soared to 21.30 yuan today, a surge of nearly 70%.
Real estate stocks are even crazier.
Vanke's stock price soared 61.07% on October 2nd alone.
Sunac China surged 75.57% on October 2nd.
Greenland China also doubled its value from the bottom of this round of market.
This also means that after the holiday, these two sectors will experience a crazy rebound.
However, we need to note that the Hong Kong stock market, especially the real estate sector, has seen a decline in the days after the National Day after a sharp rise.
Regarding the future market development, the blogger is more inclined to the "bull market syllogism".
In the first stage of the bull market, there is a general rise and a surge. Large-cap stocks set the stage and warmed up the market to attract capital inflows.
In the second stage of the bull market, differentiation, performance is king, large-cap stocks hold the field, and new white horses and dark horses take the lead.
In the third stage of the bull market, there was crazy speculation all over the place until everything was in chaos.
So, at this stage, we are in the first stage of the bull market and are about to enter the second stage (no one knows how long this process will take).
At this stage, this point,
Whether you are a new or old stock investor, never guess the top or bottom.
You are not a god, you cannot predict the market, and you have no idea how the market will develop tomorrow.
Even if you make all the calculations and go back and forth, you may end up missing out and regret it.
You must recognize the limitations of your own humanity.
Once you get off the train, if the stock price rises sharply in the future, you will definitely not dare to chase it higher.
And once the market plummets, you are destined not to dare to buy at the bottom.
So, please remember again,
Now is the early stage of a bull market, not a bear market. Chips are the most important. Please hold on to them tightly, guard your chips, and be as still as a mountain.
Remember.
Remember.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Chen Xiaotian": "Brother, please tell me about the Jisi Lu thermometer when you have time. I feel like I've opened up a new field. I downloaded Jisi Lu but don't know how to use it."
Over there is a group of conservative old stock investors who mainly focus on low returns. They are a window for me to observe the market conditions. When the situation over there becomes boiling, I have to be careful.
2. "The Third Generation Demon King": "Now I think we can predict when the top will be reached. If there are any signs, we can withdraw. Because the current stock market seems to be full of people who know how to make money and are rushing in, just like the stock market crash. We don't know when this game of passing the parcel will end."
This is also an artificial bull market, and the situation is very special, so it requires careful analysis.
Personally, I think that the current stage is a general rise in the market with a surge and repair, and the future will definitely be a slow rise dominated by a slow bull market.
Because, in the artificial bull market of 2014-2015, investors over-leveraged, which eventually led to a bull market.
Therefore, although the market looks crazy now, the blogger still believes that the invisible big hand, the biggest dealer, will turn the fast bull into a slow bull after the market warms up.
The landmark event is the crash.
What goes up sharply will inevitably go down sharply.
Now, it has risen by 600 points from 2700 points, which can be said to be a sharp rise.
In the future (unknown), the crash will definitely be fierce and tragic, and it is not known whether thousands of stocks will hit the limit down.
From a long-term perspective, conservatively speaking, there is no need to worry until it reaches at least 4,000 points.
Don't think that the rush of investors into stocks now is scary.
That's not necessary.
Because it is impossible for these stock investors to go all-in at once.
Only after tasting the sweetness will you increase the leverage and go all-in.
That’s when we’ll be most worried.
3. "Lu Mixi_ commented": "Will the market plummet after the holiday? The main players are selling today."
meeting.
And, it will definitely happen.
But, you never know when the market will crash.
So, you can't escape it either.
If you lose your chips in order to avoid the future crash, there is a great possibility that you will miss the market.
Because, in a bull market, there are always more gains than losses.
Don't move, or move less, that is the secret to making big money in a bull market.
4. "Lin Hao, who loves stir-fried meatballs": "How will this round of market movement unfold? Everyone says this round is different from previous ones, but we don't know. Placing a bet and waiting until the end is still a swing trade. So confusing."
My advice is to move less or not at all.
I know that many readers are new stock investors.
Generally speaking, a mature stock investor will experience three bull markets.
In the first bull market, I was ignorant and confused, and in the end I was harvested and lost a lot of money.
The second bull market is often trapped in technology, value, bands, news, themes, etc. If you are lucky, you can make a small profit in the end, but if you are unlucky, you will still suffer losses.
If investors can survive the third bull market, generally speaking, they have been investing in stocks for more than ten years or even more than twenty years. They can basically consider the stock market conditions comprehensively, control the overall situation at a macro level, and get through it relatively easily.
Therefore, I suggest that new stock investors, if you have time, read the first 50 to 100 chapters of this book again.
Those contents are not nonsense.
Instead, it is a review of the previous bull market in 2014-2015.
Reading about the last bull market will definitely help you to re-understand the bull market and participate in this bull market.
5. "Cold and Indifferent Xiang Yunlue": "The game has just begun, hasn't it?"
Yes, it’s just the beginning.
The big show is yet to come.
A-shares will open again tomorrow. Are you looking forward to it?
Congratulations to the stock friends who have held on to their chips. Tomorrow should be a silly, dull and fruitful day.
In addition, in addition to making money in the bull market, stock friends can also click on the reminder to update, send a free love power generation, and get some data.
A few days ago, the market was not good, and I was too embarrassed to ask for money from fellow stockholders.
Now that the market is good, stock investors can be happy and show off their wealth.
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