Chapter 323: Some Deductions on the Future Situation
Wednesday, July 31, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.86, Shanghai Composite Index: 2877
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by over 1.9%, breaking through 2,900 points. All sectors and individual stocks, except for the banking, dividend, shipbuilding and other sectors, broke out and rose across the board.
Behind the sudden changes in the market, a series of financial information requires our attention.
1. US stocks fell, while A-shares rose.
Yesterday, U.S. technology stocks plummeted again, with the Nasdaq index plummeting 2% at one point and Nvidia plummeting 7%.
Today, A-shares broke the norm and took off with explosive volume.
Is it possible that the Americans are going to cut interest rates?
In other words, those bigwigs hiding behind the scenes in the United States have successfully transferred huge assets through more than half a year of vague expectation management?
Regarding the issue of interest rate cuts in the United States,
Instead of believing the analysis of various bigwigs and the contradictory words of the Federal Reserve,
I believe more in human nature and common sense.
That is, capital is always pursuing profit, and will not give up the last penny until the last moment (interest rates will not be cut until the last moment).
However, once the decision is made to give up, it will definitely be a decisive move (when interest rates have to be cut, they will be cut quickly).
Capital has no borders and no country.
Without the United States, capital can still go to other countries to live, and even sell America for glory, which is not impossible.
After all, the ancestors of Europe and the United States have done many such things.
2. Microsoft once fell nearly 8%.
This wave of US technology stocks, based on the technology war against China, is about to end.
Because my country has made comprehensive breakthroughs in the two most basic key points: chip manufacturing and operating systems.
In the future, this breach will become bigger and bigger and will be unstoppable.
In the future, more and more high-tech companies will rise in my country, directly competing with major American technology companies, and will definitely siphon high-tech talents from the United States.
This is all foreseeable common sense.
Therefore, the winner and loser in the industrial competition between China and the United States are already clear.
The next three years will be critical years that will determine victory or defeat, as well as life and death.
I believe that global capital will definitely make the right choice based on its nature of seeking profit and avoiding harm.
3. MS Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an attack in Iraq.
The Americans, or rather the Israelis, have become a little bit crazy.
This further proves that the situation in the Middle East has reached a critical juncture.
Moreover, the US and Israel are clearly at a disadvantage.
Otherwise, it would be impossible to resort to such despicable tactics so frequently.
In fact, during this very sensitive period, the United States has a very big hidden worry in the future.
That is, if an economic crisis occurs in the United States,
So, where does the food and salary for the American soldiers sent abroad come from?
If there is no food and wages, and nothing can be plundered from outside, will the Americans return home and cause unrest?
These are all unknowns.
Not to mention, once the giant whale of the United States declines,
The first ones that popped up should be Yin Country, Japan, South Korea, and even Canada, Mexico and other countries.
By then, with the US facing internal fiscal and tax collapse (dollar collapse) and heavy external pressure (surrounded by foreign countries), turmoil, division, and civil war are very likely.
4. Yesterday’s meeting and personnel changes.
It seems important, but it also doesn't seem too important.
There is not much money in the country, but not too little either. Many people would rather pay off their loans in advance, save money, or buy government bonds than invest in the stock market, just for the sake of stability.
To a certain extent, domestic money is divided into two groups. One group holds a Chinese stance and mostly holds the money in their hands, waiting for opportunities; the other group sends the money to the United States, earns interest, and engages in speculation.
Therefore, at this stage, what is lacking mainly is confidence. Once the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows, coupled with the upward rebound of A-shares, it will bring huge upward momentum.
Hold high-quality assets patiently and wait for the dawn to appear.
Today's market:
There's nothing much to say.
As long as we hold on to high-quality chips when the index is at a low level, we will naturally wait for the index to rise.
Investing is not that difficult. As long as you believe in common sense, it won’t be too bad.
A few days and months ago, the market was in turmoil. The index plummeted from 3,100 points to more than 2,800 points. Investors were wailing, and even bloggers were confused for a few days.
However, as long as we have a little common sense and calm down and think carefully, we all know that around 2900 points is the bottom area.
Therefore, at this point, investors should not sell their shares at the bottom even if they are afraid.
To take a step back, even if you can no longer see the future of individual stocks and regretfully sell them at a loss, you should also buy the CSI 300 ETF to hedge the risk of missing out in the future.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Silver Wolf Who Likes Sweet Charlie":
"That's when the trend towards intelligent driving officially began. The subsequent rapid iteration will allow our automotive system to truly widen the gap with foreign fuel-powered and electric vehicles and lead the world."
To be honest, the vast majority of people, or 99% of people in society, are not aware of the dimensionality reduction attack capability of smart connected vehicles.
This includes myself half a year ago.
However, it will become popular rapidly next year.
Because, next year, not only will Huawei's four major brands release more than a dozen models of cars, but Changan, Dongfeng, FAW, GAC and other companies will also join the HI model and launch more than a dozen smart connected cars (State Council will fully invest in Huawei's automotive BU).
At that time, domestic smart cars will launch a dimensionality reduction attack on traditional fuel vehicles and even plug-in hybrid vehicles.
By then, it will be a true popularization and subversion of the cognition of the entire nation.
It turns out that cars can be built like this.
It turns out that the cars of the future will look like this.
I suggest that those who have plans to buy a car should not be in a hurry and wait until next year.
By then, you will find that the entire automotive industry has changed, subverting all your cognition and inherent thinking.
Those who fail to keep up with this trend will fall behind or even die. Typical examples are BBA, Japanese, Korean and American cars.
In addition, those who do not have core technologies are also in great danger, either facing the risk of decoupling (US sanctions on automotive chips and systems), or facing the risk of not keeping up with the trend and falling behind in the era of smart cars.
2. “丨灬丨丶”: Saudi Arabia lost 5 points.
Be careful with hot spots in the market, because 99% of them are scams and are tools used by big funds to reap the benefits of retail investors.
Therefore, in the stock market, you should stay away from where the market is bustling, especially from stocks that are already at high levels.
Investing is not only a game of money, but also a battle of human nature and logic.
As retail investors, we cannot defeat the other party in terms of funds, and the confrontation with human nature is also 50-50.
Therefore, when we invest, we must put thinking about investment logic, that is, cognitive game, first.
Many times, the success or failure of an investment is decided at the moment of purchase.
Because at that moment, you have already made, and must make, the decision to sell under what conditions (price, emotion, logic, etc.).
Also, in this game, what is your chance of winning, how big is your profit, and if you fail, how big will the loss be, and so on.
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