Chapter 324: With so much water, where does the supply come from?
Wednesday, September 11, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.46, Shanghai Composite Index: 2732 points.
Yesterday's news:
1. Last night, crude oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude closing below $70 and U.S. crude plunging more than 5% during the session.
OPEC has again lowered its crude oil demand for this year and next year. Major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and HSBC are strongly bearish on crude oil prices.
Trading recession expectations, it's finally the turn of crude oil prices.
Affected by this, when A-shares opened today, crude oil, coal and other energy stocks collectively plummeted.
Among them, CNOOC plummeted 5%, and has plummeted about 30% from its highest point of 34.99 yuan this year.
PetroChina and Sinopec also plummeted by about 3%, while Shaanxi Coal Industry and China Shenhua also plummeted by 3%.
Even the leading dividend stock, Yangtze Power, plummeted by 4%...
In the crude oil market, OPEC plays a truly decisive role. As long as OPEC decides to increase production significantly, it will definitely stabilize the price of crude oil. As long as OPEC controls the supply, the price of crude oil will be supported.
What determines OPEC's decision is the underlying geopolitical landscape.
At present, with the support of China and Russia, OPEC has no motivation to increase production drastically.
Because Russia's main source of income is the sale of oil, minerals and grain. Once the price of crude oil collapses, its foreign exchange earnings will plummet, and it will be impossible to support its investment in wars in Russia, the Middle East, Africa, etc., let alone other things.
The blogger believes that the current plunge in oil prices is only temporary. Once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in the future, crude oil prices will rebound under the constraints of monetary easing and supply control.
2. Europe symbolically lowered the tax rate for new energy vehicles, and HW launched the three-fold, M9 five-seater and R7.
On one side is the sea, on the other side is the fire.
The overall market continues to fall, but the leaders among new energy vehicles are rising against the trend.
BYD soared 4% today, and the smart car leader SERES also continued to fluctuate.
In the automotive field, BYD has been confirmed as the leader in new energy vehicles, but in the field of smart cars, it is still in the Warring States period.
All car companies are emphasizing that their intelligent driving is the best in the industry, and in the first quarter of 2025, Tesla's FSD will come in.
If the past three years were the key to the decisive battle in the new energy field, then next year will be the decisive battle in the field of smart cars and smart driving technology.
In this field involving security, there is only first and no second, just like the Internet field - in a field, there will eventually be only one leader, occupying 80% of the market.
It is conceivable that in the next year and a half, all car companies will be in a chaotic situation, whether in the launch of new energy vehicles or in the promotion of intelligent driving.
Under this level of competition, it is very likely that in the next three years, a large number of automobile manufacturers will go bankrupt and give up the market.
The winner will carry the remaining influence into foreign countries and continue to sweep the world.
For this industry, stock friends should know that the blogger once allocated a lot to diversify the risks of strong cyclical stocks.
Later, considering the balance, a small part of the position was returned to the non-ferrous metals sector.
At present, it does play a role in balancing profits and losses.
3. Buffett continues to sell Bank of America shares.
It seems that there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Investors all know that during an interest rate cut cycle, the interest rate spread of bank stocks will narrow, which will greatly erode bank profits.
Therefore, the stock god sold bank stocks again and again.
Similarly, Buffett is also selling Apple.
Because the MATE60 released at the end of last year has announced the failure of the technology war launched by the United States (chip war),
HW has mastered the manufacturing of advanced chips.
So, Apple’s moat is no longer there.
In the future, to judge when inflation will truly end, we can also refer to when Buffett sold his heavily invested Western Petroleum.
Many people have a stereotype that Buffett is a standard value investor who only buys stocks with long-term growth potential, such as pharmaceuticals, liquor, and consumer goods, and holds them for a long time.
However, the real Buffett will adjust his positions according to market cycles. For example, buying stocks such as banks, Apple, and Occidental Petroleum is a standard cyclical stock investment method.
As long as the price is right, almost all stocks are worth investing or speculating in.
4. The enthusiasm for capital outflow is high, and high-performing QDIIs have received increased holdings from institutions.
If institutions go overseas in 2021 or 2022, it is indeed a good opportunity.
However, now that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates and U.S. stocks are at a high level, going overseas has indeed turned you into a big leek.
However, no one will pay attention, and no one will care who loses money.
Because it is not your own money that is lost, so you don’t feel bad about it. The ultimate goal is to get the transaction fee.
Bloggers will never trust funds.
Because human nature cannot stand scrutiny.
In the eyes of fund managers, you are the biggest fat sheep and the biggest fool.
You let others manage your money, and would rather trust outsiders than yourself. If it's not you who is losing out, then who will?
5. NHND: The company's weight loss drugs have side effects.
A person's physique is closely related to each person's way of living.
If you want to lose weight, just move your legs and control your diet.
However, Western medicine can take advantage of your anxiety and develop various drugs to make money.
Western medicine and Western drugs are not bad, but it depends on who is in control of them.
In the hands of Western capitalists, everything is about money. If you don't have money, don't even think about seeing a doctor. Minor illnesses are treated as major ones, and even if you don't have any illness, they will say you are sick, such as when you are trying to lose weight.
In traditional Chinese culture, doctors’ morality comes first, curing diseases and saving lives comes first, and making money comes second.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Western medicine is so hostile to traditional Chinese medicine (brainwashing Western medical students in theory).
Or, it may be because Western medical surgical techniques are derived from ancient Chinese medical surgical techniques (a large number of ancient surgical instruments have been unearthed in my country, some of which are more sophisticated than modern medical ones).
It is more likely that Chinese medicine can treat those projects that Western medicine considers to be profitable in the long term at very little cost, or even at no cost.
Typical examples include the concept of preventing disease before it occurs in traditional Chinese medicine, and various health-preserving treatment methods (such as Taoist health-preserving exercises).
It can easily and cost-freely treat some more difficult diseases (for example, cervical spondylosis, lumbar spondylosis and other chronic diseases, which, from the perspective of traditional Chinese medicine, are not diseases, but from the perspective of Western medicine, minor diseases require medication and major diseases require surgery).
Blocking someone's path to wealth is tantamount to killing their parents.
Western medicine will definitely be hostile to and slander traditional Chinese medicine. This is human nature.
This involves a philosophical question: does medicine serve people or capital?
Serving capital will naturally lead to industrialization, with everything centered on profit;
Serving humanity naturally prioritizes healing and saving lives, with profit taking a back seat. (The online debate between Chinese and Western medicine is endless and intense. Essentially, it's a clash of medical concepts, a debate over whether profit or morality comes first. With China's rise, Chinese and Western medicine will inevitably merge again, returning to the fundamental principles of medicine.)
This kind of debate and disagreement can also extend to areas such as education, housing, and even the military and ZZ.
To some extent, capitalist society is also a centralized system, in which a small group of capitalists are in a dominant position.
The source of all social operations is money.
In other words, it is something called capital rights.
This involves a classic saying that the butt determines the head.
If you are a big capitalist, you will definitely like capitalist society, because through capital you can control everything in society and buy everything in society...
However, if you are not a big capitalist, then you must hate capitalist society, or rather, you should not like capitalist society, otherwise you will be sold out and count money for others.
Because you live in a capitalist country, you are a slave to capital.
From the moment you were born, you have been exploited by capital. Everything you have will be exploited by capital, which is equivalent to the materials owned by slaves in a slave society.
This is the inevitable result of capital's constant pursuit of value-added.
But in real life, everything is in vain. In the decades of large-scale invasion of Western culture, many people have changed.
Between virtue and profit, things have changed.
6. Strengthen the country through education.
The time point is 2035.
Starting from the root cause, the field of education began to cleanse itself of flaws.
It seems that we should start with basic education in primary and secondary schools, and then move up step by step, and finally eliminate those colonialists in the field of higher education.
Therefore, the industrialization of education is gone forever, and we must not be attached to those education and training stocks on the market.
On the contrary, in work, life and investment, we should pay more attention to industries that are rooted in our traditional culture.
For example, Hanfu, martial arts, calligraphy, music, poetry and so on in traditional culture,
With the revival of our country, these traditional cultures will surely embark on a new journey of glory.
Moreover, they are excellent cultures that have been passed down in the world for hundreds or even thousands of years, but they have been covered in dust in the past few hundred years.
7. Goldman Sachs says: Global interest rate cut cycle is good for the US dollar
Because other central banks are also cutting interest rates.
In other words, everyone is printing money, and as long as I print it slower, my currency will be harder.
But, let’s look at it from another perspective.
Everyone is releasing more and more water, but the total amount of cargo has not increased significantly.
With so much water added, where will the goods come from in the end?
The final outcome can only be that there is more water than goods, leading to severe inflation.
Or, you can look at it this way.
These released currencies can be seen as the new era of looting ships. As the number of pirates increases, the final result is that the looted resources and goods will become increasingly scarce and more and more valuable.
Nowadays, OPEC controls crude oil production capacity and my country controls cross-cycle investment. Under this dual control, the huge amount of water will inevitably cause severe inflation.
Because, apart from these two parties, other countries in the world cannot produce the huge amount of crude oil and goods that can stabilize inflation.
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Improving investment capacity depends on output.
I wrote too little during the two months of summer vacation, so my understanding of the market has declined a lot, and my operations seem a bit messy.
I hope to keep updating in the future and continue to improve my knowledge.
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