Chapter 325: Two more trading days
Thursday, September 12, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.28, Shanghai Composite Index: 2722 points
Yesterday's news:
1. There are two trading days left.
Last night, the US CPI was announced as expected, slowing down slightly to 2.5% year-on-year.
This data is not as good as previously announced.
Markets are starting to price in a 25 basis point rate cut next week, rather than a 50 basis point one.
U.S. stocks initially declined and then rose, closing in the green.
I have to admire their expectation management.
When you think there will be no interest rate cuts, you start cutting interest rates with data.
When you start trading a recession and think you're going to get a big rate cut, it's only going to be a small rate cut.
Raise it high and then put it down gently.
Currently, there is a lot of time until the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on September 18 next Wednesday.
There are still 2 trading days left for A shares.
Waiting is the best choice.
2. Ningde halts production, and UBS predicts lithium prices will bottom out.
Yesterday, stimulated by this news, lithium stocks in the A-share market set off a surge in limit-up prices.
But, has the lithium mining industry really hit bottom?
It's hard to say.
Normal industry liquidation is a long process, which can take as short as a few years or as long as more than ten years. Just like the non-ferrous metals, oil, coal, etc. in this round of inflation cycle, the entire cycle lasts for 20 years, interspersed with several small cycles.
This accidental incident caused the lithium mine stock price to rebound sharply, setting off a surge in daily limit prices.
The reason is more likely to be that the surge in the container index some time ago triggered a replica of the surge in shipping companies.
It is a sharp rebound in a long downward phase.
Because once the price of lithium ore rebounds, the lithium mines that are currently shut down can still resume production.
The production of lithium mines that have reduced can still be increased.
Once the supply and demand structure becomes unbalanced again, the price of lithium ore will fall again.
Supply and demand are the two most important tools for us to study commodity prices and cycles.
Be cautious unless supply shrinks significantly.
In addition, ZZ is an important driving force that can influence commodity prices.
For example, OPEC's impact on oil prices,
For example, these days, my country has restricted exports of gallium, germanium and antimony.
For example, since 2016, my country has started to carry out supply-side reforms in the coal industry, which has led to an improvement in the overall profitability of the coal industry.
As for the price of lithium now, since lithium is an important metal for manufacturing batteries and developing new energy vehicles, it directly affects the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles.
Therefore, as for the price of lithium, my country welcomes overproduction, which will help reduce battery costs and promote the development of new energy vehicles.
Likewise, in the photovoltaic sector.
Many people, including some institutions, say that there is involution and overproduction, and call for supply-side reform in the industry.
However, our government did not intervene excessively.
Because this is also another breakthrough for my country's new energy industry.
Only through crazy internal competition can we promote technological progress and reach the pinnacle of science and technology.
3. Singapore passed the Platform Workers Act: food deliverymen and online car-hailing drivers must also contribute to social security and provident funds.
In the future, it is very likely that our country will also take this path.
In the future, online monopoly platforms that rely on madly exploiting riders and drivers will be subject to strict supervision and constraints.
D must manage capital and not allow them to do whatever they want and use modern monopoly methods to collect platform rent.
4. Criminal coercive measures have been taken against the actual controller of Rock Co., Ltd.
Do you still remember this weird "name change king" company?
Around 2015, when Internet finance was booming, it changed its name to Pitupipi and frantically took advantage of the hype.
Around 2017, the real estate market was booming, and the company changed its name to Rock Shares and tried to capitalize on the popularity.
In 2019, Baijiu became popular, and they wanted to change their name to "Guijiu" and began to frantically take advantage of the Baijiu popularity...
The history of this company's name change is a history of A-share speculation.
5. Today's market conditions.
The index remained calm, and strong cyclical stocks rebounded strongly.
There are only 2 trading days left until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
My fellow stockholders, you are celebrating the holidays with full positions.
Or should I keep a light position or even no position during the holidays?
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com
