Chapter 330 The situation is moving forward unwaveringly as expected
Wednesday, October 23, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 15.71, Shanghai Composite Index: 3285.25 points.
The market has unknowingly broken through 3,300 points again.
Needless to say, it is another wave of limit-up, god-making, being trapped and cutting losses.
There is no need to elaborate on the market.
That is, oscillating upward, upward.
Fellow stock traders, most of you should have made a lot of money in this round of market.
However, outside the busy and stimulating capital market, the situation in many aspects at home and abroad is quietly changing, which deserves our attention.
1. BRICS Summit.
The first BRICS meeting after the expansion attracted worldwide attention.
It is said that the host country Russia will propose to establish a settlement system belonging to the BRICS countries.
This is tantamount to directly cutting off one foot of the US dollar.
You must know that the US dollar is a powerful weapon used by the United States to rule and reap the world.
Nowadays, under the general environment of decoupling between China and the United States, the world trade system has been subtly divided into two systems.
One is the European and American system centered around the United States and supported by finance, technology, and military; the other is a system centered around China and Russia and supported by resources, manufacturing, and military.
For a long time, many people have said that China and Russia are cooperating with poor buddies, while Europe and the United States are cooperating with a group of rich people.
The confrontation between the two systems is unequal.
But, looking at the present,
Against the backdrop of hyperinflation and with my country's continuous industrial upgrading, the formerly poor countries have gradually become rich, while the formerly European and American countries, especially Europe, have begun to become poor.
If the BRICS settlement system is established, the whole world will change at the financial level.
This is a big and important matter.
2. HarmonyOS.
As we all know, the United States has two main means to maintain its technological hegemony.
One is the chip manufacturing process,
One is the various operating systems built on the chip.
Today, we have basically conquered the former and can achieve chip manufacturing above 7NM.
It can meet the needs of most scenarios.
The latter officially announced Hongmeng today.
This will inevitably replace IOS, Android, and WINDOWS in the fields of mobile phones, tablets, TVs, cars, PCs, etc., and fundamentally undermine the technological hegemony established by the Americans.
Once upon a time, we were so frustrated and passive in the trade war and technology war in 2018.
Now, after years of hard work, we have finally conquered these two areas.
The road ahead is still long.
But we will keep going.
Because someone is always pushing us forward.
3. US election.
The second half of this year is destined to go down in history.
Next month’s US election is also destined to change the course of history.
In the previous chapter, we have speculated that if there are no unexpected events, Trump should be elected.
The continued record highs of gold and silver are a bet on Trump moving into the White House (gold hit a new high again last night, and silver hit a new high in more than 20 years).
Because, according to Trump's governing philosophy, there should be a big interest rate cut, a big money injection, and even a big devaluation of the US dollar.
Just like when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in the 1970s.
Of course, there is also a high probability that a trade war will be launched again and the country will be closed off.
Just like around 1927, when the world was imposing trade barriers.
And this, in turn, has a high probability of causing a global financial crisis.
Two sides of the same coin.
This is a danger for Europe and the United States, but also an opportunity for us.
4. Europe cuts interest rates.
French central bank Governor Villeroy called on the European Central Bank to remain flexible on interest rate cuts and avoid acting too slowly.
Stop hiding it, no matter how the Americans manage expectations and maintain a strong dollar.
However, it is highly likely that the US will continue to cut interest rates in November.
It is not ruled out that Trump may directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points if he comes to power.
It is also highly likely that the euro will continue to cut interest rates.
Nowadays, the world's three largest economies are all flooding the market with money. The prospect of severe inflation in the future is exciting just to think about.
5. Crack down on "short essays".
JJRB said: "We must crack down on small essays."
Yes, when the market is good, there will be more leeks.
All kinds of sickles began to mobilize various energies and started to harvest leeks, so quickly and fiercely.
Some people hire stock market gurus to leak information, some specialize in "small essays," and some are even more naked, starting live broadcasts to teach various techniques...
As I said before, as the market continues to develop in the future, these "little essays" will be cracked down in various fields.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Chen Xiaotian":
"Brother, can you tell me about the current rules for subscribing to new stocks? The bull market is really boring, so I'm just buying new stocks. I wonder if there are any tips."
In a bull market, as a large amount of funds pour in, risk appetite becomes greater and greater, which naturally gives rise to various arbitrage opportunities.
For example, the arbitrage opportunity of Grade A/Grade B in that year,
For example, the convertible bond subscription arbitrage (corporate account subscription) that year,
For example, the leverage and financing of new stocks in those days,
And so on and so forth, these are all very big opportunities, or low-risk or basically risk-free arbitrage opportunities.
Many people have made big money from small capital by taking advantage of these opportunities.
The gains are no less than the profits from stock speculation.
Even more.
Similar arbitrage opportunities should also appear in this bull market, but the blogger has not discovered them yet.
These days, new stocks have often seen a tenfold increase in price, proving the stability of arbitrage opportunities in new stock subscriptions.
However, the winning rate is too low compared to that year (ZJH is increasing the supply of new shares in the future).
If you want to increase your chances of winning, the only way is to mobilize your family to apply together.
I hope to find arbitrage opportunities again in the future and share them with everyone.
(This is also the reason why I have been paying attention to Jisilu, because this forum is a low-risk forum, and many low-risk arbitrage opportunities will be shared and discussed in it. If you see it, please send me a private message).
2. "Fat Brother Lincheng":
"Withdraw slowly and protect the profits. I don't expect to get rich in the stock market anyway."
It’s still early now, we have to retreat at least above 4000 points.
3. "Li Yunbiao, who loves fir":
"Brother, stock market, I predict that the second wave of the Chinese-character stocks will come within 2 months. The Chinese-character stocks did not take off during this rise and have been playing dead. The second wave will come anytime and anywhere."
No one knows, and it’s hard to guess what the higher-ups are thinking.
Funds are like water and the stock market is like a boat. As long as the boat you choose is of good quality,
When flooded, it will definitely float.
I don't seek to be rich, I just want to outperform the index. If I accidentally outperform by a large margin,
That is the gift of the market.
We must learn to be content and grateful.
When the time comes, remember to get out of this situation safely.
Don't overestimate your abilities.
4. “Wish to meet beauty unexpectedly”:
"If the author could tell us which sector in this bull market has greater potential for future prospects, I believe everyone would not be stingy and would contribute at least one every day for love."
Let me explain this question in more detail.
As early as before 2700 points, that is, a few months ago, the blogger made many assumptions and predictions about the future market.
Basically, I have identified several sections and shared them with you in this article.
Before this round of market conditions came, the blogger further adjusted his holdings to an aggressive position, and also left a message to communicate with a fellow stockholder.
Those stock friends who have been following this article should know this.
If you have patience, you can take another look at the contents of the first few dozen chapters and you will have a better idea of what is going on.
If you find it troublesome, you can take a look at what Green Bubble wrote on September 27, which contains an analysis of this round of market conditions.
Such as, the mainstream sectors of this round of market, the height and length of this round of market, etc.
5. "Want to eat conch": "Can I still go all-in?"
No matter when, where, or how confident you are, you should not invest all your money in one stock.
This is because once you invest all your money in one stock, your mentality will become very bad and it will be extremely difficult to control your mentality. Once there is a fluctuation, your mentality will become unbalanced and distorted.
Moreover, any stock, no matter how good it is, may encounter a black swan event.
This is a question of probability.
Just like a person being struck by lightning on a rainy day, although the probability is extremely small, once it happens, it will be a disaster.
As an investor, you should not take such a big and obvious risk to take this opportunity.
Besides, this opportunity is an opportunity in my own eyes.
Generally speaking, it is better to choose the best from the best and select three to five stocks to hold.
In addition, the blogger is at this point, that is, 3300 points, so it is difficult to recommend any stocks.
After all, compared with 2700 points and 3000 points, it is already relatively high.
The cost of entering the market at this position will be higher.
The market has been good recently, so fellow stockholders, please urge me to update my article if you have time.
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