Chapter 332 Everything is like 2015
Tuesday, October 29, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 20.04, Shanghai Composite Index: 3328.09 points.
1. Everything seems to be happening again in 2015.
I vaguely remember that at the end of 2014, it was the banks, insurance and securities that pushed the index to 3,000 points.
At that time, it was like a wild dream, unstoppable,
Now, in the autumn of 2024, the heavyweight stocks such as banks, insurance and securities have all made great efforts to push the index to 3300 points.
That year, after the index stabilized, people began to hype "Internet +". Behind it was the government's support for "mass entrepreneurship and innovation". It was ZZZQ.
Nowadays, after the index stabilized at 3300 points, the concept of "mergers and acquisitions" began to be hyped crazily. Behind this, it was also GJ who supported "mergers and acquisitions" and ZZZQ.
In the past, those companies that were wildly hyped and ended up in a mess, such as Yinzhijie, Yanshi Shares, etc., are now rising again and being wildly hyped.
It is true that the worse the performance, the higher the price, the better the concept, the higher the price, without any estimation of PE/PB, which makes countless investors jealous.
Some people even get involved and get involved.
The reason behind this has to start from September 24th.
On the same day, the ZZJ issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the M&A and Restructuring Market of Listed Companies", which detailed six supportive policies for M&A and restructuring.
However, it was the end of the most pessimistic bear market, and the Shanghai Composite Index only drew a medium-sized positive line.
Basically, no one has delved into it.
However, a few days later, the Shanghai Composite Index directly entered a bull market mode, rising from around 2700 points to around 3600 points.
This marked the beginning of this epic bull market.
At this very moment,
That is, on October 10, SJS held a symposium for securities firms: "On-site explanation of the latest policy spirit of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring" and "Listened to opinions and suggestions on further invigorating the mergers and acquisitions and restructuring market and opening up the last mile of policy implementation."
Therefore, this directly led to the explosion of the concept of "mergers, acquisitions and restructuring" during this period.
At that time, the blogger did not fail to see the news.
It’s not that I haven’t thought about writing something.
But in the end, I gave up.
Because, as a retail investor, you don’t know when and where your opponent, or the dealer, will start the market.
I don't even know when and to what price the price will be.
This kind of unequal game is a fool's game of passing the flower.
Your only chance of winning is that there are enough fools who can take over your plan.
In this market, whether it is investment or speculation,
It’s always the case that those who are forewarned get to eat the meat, while those who are late to the party pay the bill.
It has never changed.
We must know where our advantages lie.
Go as early as possible and be the one who sees things first.
2. The differences of this round of market.
It's like a game.
There is always someone behind the scenes, silently controlling everything.
There is no unprovoked hype, only endless conspiracies and schemes.
Whether it is the last bull market in 2014-2015 or the bull market that started in 2024,
It was all initiated by the higher-ups.
They all have the characteristics and steps of the times.
There is no doubt about it.
This round of market has already shown some differences from the previous round.
In addition to the above-mentioned changes in the direction of hype,
In addition, there are changes in the composition of mainstream funds entering the market.
In the last bull market, a large part of the mainstream funds entering the market came from leveraged funds inside and outside the market.
These funds, through crazy speculation, pushed the index to 5,000 points in a very short period of time.
But, success and failure are all due to Xiao He.
After the extreme crazy leverage, there was a fierce deleveraging.
In the end, the chaos led to the abortion of the last bull market.
On the other hand, this bull market is still going on, suppressing the index and speculating on individual stocks.
However, after experiencing the crazy deleveraging from 2021 to 2024, or the loss-making education, investors basically no longer trust fund companies.
Also, after experiencing the crazy leverage bull market from 2014 to 2015, GJ has strictly controlled the flow of personal DK into the stock market.
Only GF is allowed to invest in the stock market with leverage.
In other words, in terms of mainstream investment products, we have changed from the previous investment model characterized by star fund managers to
It is slowly moving towards an investment model characterized by index investment (historically similar to the US stock market in the past).
Recently, the large-scale issuance of CSI 500 Index Funds is an exception.
In the future, once the bull market develops further,
It is very likely that investing in index funds will become the mainstream choice for both new and old funds and investors.
Even, a generation of faith.
Just like investing in various liquor consumption funds back then.
This will inevitably push up the index further and lead to high-quality companies enjoying a market premium.
3. Judgment on recent market conditions.
The recent market conditions are very healthy.
To sum it up in one sentence, it is to suppress the index and speculate on individual stocks.
In the future, if the index is to move upward, it will also require the contribution of blue chip stocks.
This force comes from three sources: stock investors, index funds, and GJD.
If we have to determine a time, it should be when the US election ends (RDCWH held from November 4th to 8th is a sensitive time node).
By then, everything will be clear.
The trump card should be played.
Just go and see, don’t be envious, don’t be pessimistic, look forward, at least four thousand points.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Dream as Fresh as New":
"Blogger, I have carefully studied Huawei's autonomous driving technology and Tesla's. Tesla's technology is also very strong."
Five years ago, Tesla's technology was very strong.
But now, it has clearly fallen behind.
Whether it is technology or products.
In terms of technology, it chose the low-cost pure visual technology route.
However, based on common sense, this technical route is not as good as the fusion perception technology route of laser radar, millimeter wave radar, ultrasonic radar and camera.
Because the former cannot solve scenes such as night, rain, snow, fog, glare and strong light,
In terms of product strength, Tesla's cars have not been upgraded for many years, and are known in the industry as "rough houses".
In my country, the basic model is a high-speed iteration model with a small change every year and a new generation every two years.
Tesla's halo should last until the end of this year.
It’s hard to say what will happen next year.
Because it does not have a technical advantage, the incentive is that the introduction of FSD into China has completely dispelled the cognition of many people.
We do not have an advantage in terms of products, because next year there will be a historic reshuffle in the domestic automobile industry.
Its brutality is comparable to the mobile phone war and white appliance war of the year.
It’s hard to say who will win.
2. "Dongxuanzhong of Dabian Island":
"Smart cars are useful, but what if the company that makes them goes bankrupt for some reason and the servers are shut down? Will the smart car just become a brick?"
Bricks are not that bad,
However, OTA upgrade is not possible.
You can only watch the winners move into L3 or even L4, while you can only drive an electric car instead of a smart car.
So, if you have plans to buy a car in the future,
Everyone should slow down a bit.
Because once you buy the wrong car, it will lose tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in value.
Next year will be an extremely brutal battle in the automotive field.
The losers have nothing, and bankruptcy becomes the norm.
It is not ruled out that some large and well-known companies will be acquired and restructured.
Next year will also be the first year for my country's smart cars to go overseas.
It was also the first year that my country's automobile industry launched a full-scale offensive against the world.
From this point of view, my country should maintain a long-term attitude in the Sino-US wrestling, in military and political aspects, such as the Middle East and Russia.
In the economic field, it is a heavy blow.
Especially in the automotive sector, it directly hit the vital points of industrial countries such as Europe and the United States.
In the future, we will also fight back against the Americans in the field of chips and semiconductors.
Once the industrial and technological hegemony falls,
The living standards of European and American countries will plummet, and the halo that has shrouded them for decades will completely disappear.
Historically,
Europe and America are barbaric lands far away from civilization, even less civilized than the Middle East.
It was during the Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties that my country gradually accepted the transfer of culture and technology, and coincidentally the Industrial Revolution took place, thus entering modern civilization in one fell swoop.
And, relying on powerful ships and cannons to colonize the world, expand living space, and compile a halo around their heads (which emperor does not write history?),
But, in the end,
Their culture cannot bear the responsibility of governing the world.
It can't even govern a united Europe.
Finally, it is time to withdraw from the stage of history and return to your own position.
This world is a cycle.
Civilization, technology,
Like a fire, it moves from one area to another.
Never extinguished.
The market is not bad, please send me some more updates
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com
