Chapter 338 Trading Trump
Thursday, November 7, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 20.95, Shanghai Composite Index: 3359.99 points.
Yesterday, Trump won the election.
Assets on the other side of the ocean began to celebrate.
The US dollar soared, US stocks soared, and commodities led by gold and copper plummeted.
It's quite nonsensical.
Have you forgotten about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting tonight?
Have you forgotten about tomorrow’s domestic policies?
Indeed, under the policy background of “stability first”, we should not pin our hopes on flooding the market with money.
However, at least the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion.
Moreover, the United States is still in a cycle of interest rate cuts.
From an overall perspective, my country is still in the stage of transitioning from deflation to inflation, and will continue to release funds to stimulate the economy.
On the other hand, after years of "high-interest deposit collection", the Americans are likely to maintain an interest rate cut cycle for at least a year.
Otherwise, such high interest rates, while beneficial to financial capital, will continue to weaken the vitality of the real economy.
After all, playing with money makes money much faster than working hard in industry.
1. Trade Trump.
Judging from Trump's previous term and campaign platform,
He will probably implement isolationism and trade protectionism, unload the various international obligations previously undertaken by the United States (collecting protection fees, withdrawing from international organizations), and reduce its power to North America.
Therefore, be sure to avoid companies that mainly sell their products to North America.
In the future, it is highly likely that Trump will continue to exert extreme pressure, engage in a trade war and a technology war with China.
But now it’s different from the past.
At that time, my country had just started the supply-side reform and had not yet completely separated from the American system.
Especially the weak points such as chip manufacturing and operating system,
Therefore, our country was very passive at that time.
But now, after six years of hard work,
These two biggest weaknesses have been basically overcome.
And, in terms of military, our country has developed extremely rapidly in the past six years,
Therefore, if the US and China clash again, and the US government, led by Trump, still arrogantly pursues hegemony,
Then we certainly won’t care about them.
2. YH held a symposium on foreign investment:
"Listen to the opinions and suggestions of foreign financial institutions, and study the work related to further optimizing the business environment and promoting high-level opening up of the financial industry."
In this American election, many bigwigs have taken sides.
At this moment, with Trump's election, there is a certain possibility that a reckoning will begin.
Furthermore, Trump represents the domestic capital of the United States, and wants to implement isolationism (the real economy prefers low-interest production).
Biden's side represents the interests of Wall Street financial capital, pursues globalism, and wants to promote global liberalization and suck the blood of global capital (capital likes to suck blood at high interest rates).
This determines that the demands of the two parties are inconsistent.
As a result, it is very likely that Trump will continue to introduce various isolationist measures, thereby damaging the interests of these large global conglomerates.
This will, to a certain extent, lead to the division of the American capital consortium.
Also, it is possible that some consortiums will return to my country.
In the blink of an eye, another day has passed.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3359.99 points, opened low and closed high again, directly breaking through 3400 points, rising 2.57% and closing at 3470.66%.
During the trading session, liquor stocks collectively soared, with Jiugui Liquor, Shede Wine Industry, and Luzhou Laojiao hitting their daily limit, and GMZT soaring 5%.
It seems that we are recalling the excitement of domestic demand stocks after the trade war.
Securities and insurance stocks collectively broke out, with Oriental Fortune soaring by more than 12%, and securities stocks such as CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun hitting their daily limit.
New China Life and China Life both hit their daily limit, Ping An of China surged 5%.
The former is looking forward to the style of the bull market flag bearer, while the latter has indeed made money from the bull market, and the third quarter report is so beautiful...
Furthermore, against the backdrop of yesterday's sharp drop in futures prices, nonferrous metal stocks opened low and closed high, with gold and copper weak and aluminum strong. The chaotic storm in the futures market has gradually subsided...
In short, except for the previous strong stocks in adjustment,
Today is another day of big rise.
Let's wait and see what the Fed meeting will decide tomorrow.
And how strong the policies issued by our country are.
Judging from the current market conditions and trends, this round of market conditions has broken through the previous high.
It may be much faster than expected.
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