Chapter 340 Reality and Lies
Monday, November 11, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 24.47, Shanghai Composite Index: 3432.37 points.
Over the weekend, all major forums were filled with overwhelming bearish voices.
It is said that debt repayment is not as good as expected.
In fact, this is all the imagination of those who are bearish, short-selling, and want to make quick money.
What scale of debt repayment would meet their expectations?
Ten trillion? Twenty trillion?
Even if it is one hundred trillion, they are still insatiable and shout that it does not meet their expectations.
If your butt is crooked, everything you see will look crooked.
In this kind of public opinion environment, countless stock investors spent a weekend in anxiety.
As soon as the market opened today, the market opened low, which made people feel uneasy.
Unfortunately, the market only adjusted for more than an hour.
In the afternoon, after several waves of pull-ups, the market closed in the green, which severely slapped these people in the face.
1. Make fewer assumptions and look more at the actual situation.
In October, the domestic CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, and the PPI year-on-year decline widened to -2.9%!
Generally speaking, PPI data is a leading indicator of CPI data.
In other words, the domestic deflation situation in my country is still not optimistic, even after several rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and real estate and capital market rescue efforts, and further monetary easing is urgently needed to revitalize the economy.
This can also be seen in the monetary policy implementation report for the first three quarters released by YH on October 8.
It still points out: "Promoting a reasonable recovery in prices is an important consideration in grasping monetary policy, and we will push prices to remain at a reasonable level."
What this means is that they want to flood the market with money to drive inflation.
However, releasing water does not mean flooding the market, but rather it should be targeted and come in waves.
Because the other side just finished the election, and they still have to keep their cards in reserve, waiting for Trump to take office.
Now, it's just a matter of waiting.
2. Many Wall Street banks have successively lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025.
Wow, look at their expectation management.
In October, the interest rate was cut by 50 basis points, and in November, it was cut by another 25 basis points.
As a result, the US dollar index rose instead of falling, and the prices of various commodities basically did not move much.
Isn’t this a waste of interest rate cuts?
If you have the ability, don’t cut the interest rate. Wouldn’t it be better to keep it at a high level of 5%?
I want this, and more.
Such high interest rates give me a headache just thinking about it. How many years can you Americans last?
Isn’t it beautiful if everyone loosens the money supply and defaults on debts to pay off debts?
Taking a step back, if you want to develop, Americans, will you continue to engage in finance, or change track and engage in industry?
If I continue to work in finance, how can I continue to do so given the high position of the capital market? Is it dangerous?
If we want to bring manufacturing back to China as Trump promised, we will have to invest heavily in infrastructure construction.
The latter must maintain a low-interest environment to finance development through debt, and requires huge resources to support it.
3. RMRB: "The Chinese economy cannot be a 'mad bull', it must be a 'slow bull'."
Focus on stability.
It seems to be talking about the economy, but it also seems to be talking about the stock market.
Be patient.
4. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: There are irrational factors in the price trend of alumina, and excessive capital speculation is obvious.
Shouting for better health is useless.
Anyway, now everyone is hyping up stories on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, without considering expectations and performance.
5. The profits of Japan's five major automakers all declined, with Nissan's net profit plummeting 94%.
Just beginning.
2025 will be even worse.
In the future, it is very likely that China and the United States will divide the global automobile market share of Japan and Germany.
We eat meat and the Americans recover.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Little King Duck":
"Are our smart electric vehicles truly superior to traditional gasoline vehicles, or are we simply pursuing this because we can't compete with gasoline vehicles? From a cost perspective, high-end smart vehicles are comparable, with Xiaomi's new offerings priced at 70-80 million yuan. For example, in my case, hiring a driver costs 4,500 yuan, which translates to 600,000 yuan for 10 years, and a gasoline vehicle with a 400,000 yuan investment still costs 1 million yuan. From a safety perspective, I feel people are more reliable than systems. Low- and mid-range smart electric vehicles are mostly self-driving, and most cities and routes currently lack the capability for autonomous driving, making this a bit of a waste. It seems like the lack of fully autonomous driving, like in sci-fi movies, and the lack of future prospects stems from the fact that we can't compete with gasoline vehicles, and promoting this new approach is a way to squeeze out gasoline vehicles and profit, not because smart electric vehicles are superior to gasoline vehicles. If it weren't for oil or energy issues, would we still be developing electric vehicles as we are now? Could you explain my confusion?"
The competitive advantage of new energy vehicles lies in the cost of using the vehicle. The most typical example is BYD's car, which is less than 200,000 yuan and focuses on economy and affordability. A tank of gas can run about 2,000 kilometers, and the fuel consumption is less than 4.
The competitive advantage of smart cars lies in safety, especially active safety, which many people are not aware of. If you are interested, you can search for "risk avoidance videos" on Douyin.
At present, only HW series smart cars can do this, which is also one of the biggest advantages of HW series smart cars.
In addition to the above two points, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles and smart vehicles have a better driving experience, and are equipped with refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas.
Now, it is the next era for the automotive industry.
In short, you can make an appointment to test drive the most popular M9 and you will find out.
2. "Xiahou Juan who loves longan bread": "I'm still tired of washing the dishes. Let me calm down."
When the wind comes,
All the trees in the forest are moving.
The difference is that some trees move first, some move later, some move more, and some move less.
Often, the key to successful investing is not how smart or brave you are, but because you happen to be standing at the right spot.
Therefore, in a bull market, we should keep a normal mind.
After choosing the stock you like best, just wait.
As long as your understanding is correct, the wind will always come, the only difference is whether it comes early or late.
Investing is the realization of your own cognition. Don't just follow others. You should have your own investment system. Blindly copying others' work is not recommended.
In fact, when you have self-awareness, you will have wealth.
If you don't have the awareness, even if wealth comes to you by chance, you will eventually lose it.
Many people have caught many bull stocks and made a lot of money.
But in the end, it was returned to the market.
It's not that they don't work hard enough,
Rather, it is because their cognition has not kept pace with the evolution of the market and they have been eliminated.
In this cruel market, every few years, there will be a change, a subversion, and a harvest.
Those who fail to keep up with the times will be harvested and eliminated.
3. "Hidden Car behind the Horse": "Will deflation continue until this round of debt reduction is completed?"
Deflation is the worst-case scenario for any government.
We are also the same, and we will and must continue to release money and increase leverage in the future to get rid of deflation.
However, due to the background of the Sino-US dispute,
We need to be steady and come in waves.
It depends on the policies of the other side, and we should respond accordingly.
In fact, this state of suspense is very good, as it allows us to seize the initiative.
Hidden in the earth, moving in the sky.
In a blink of an eye, another day has passed.
Today, under the shadow of the technology war on the other side of the strait, technology stocks collectively broke out and soared.
Friends who hold traditional stocks are disappointed.
On the disk, there is nothing good to say.
Heavyweight stocks such as banks and insurance companies collectively retreated, the ChiNext Index rose by more than 3%, auto stocks performed strongly, non-ferrous metal stocks generally weakened, and only small metal stocks occasionally performed well.
After a series of policy shocks last week, the market returned to its original track - suppressing the index and speculating on individual stocks.
When will it end?
It's November now. In theory, the most important annual government economic work conference is about to be held.
Looking forward to it.
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