Chapter 247: When investing, you also need to have a bottom line mindset
Wednesday, April 24, 2024.
Financial Information:
First, the biggest news yesterday was that US Secretary of State Blinken was going to visit China.
Since the start of the "trade war", every time China and the United States have contact, the United States has to create topics and bargaining chips in advance. Even if it does not have any chips, it will fabricate one out of thin air in an attempt to get something for nothing.
The most shameless.
Before Yellen's visit to China, she sourly complained about China's overcapacity and eventually left in disgrace.
Similarly, before Blinken's visit to China, he did not forget their ancestral craft. Before he came, he released the news that he would kick some Chinese banks out of the world financial system to prevent China from providing support to Russia.
this……
The American mindset is beyond comprehension. Don't they realize the Earth will continue to rotate regardless of who's around? If we don't need your financial system, can't we just start over and build a new one? If the new one works better, then the old one will be in tatters.
What the Americans are doing is purely digging their own grave.
Second, Tianqi Lithium’s crisis.
In the first quarter of last year, Tianqi Lithium made a profit of 4.875 billion yuan. Only one year later, it suffered a huge loss of 3.6 billion to 4.3 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange directly issued a letter of concern in response to this.
Tianqi Lithium's huge losses are ultimately due to the high lithium prices in previous years. A large number of companies have flocked into this industry. The large supply has directly caused the lithium price to plummet from a high of around 500,000 yuan per ton to the current 100,000 yuan per ton.
Therefore, when we invest in strong cyclical stocks, we must not only analyze the macro-economic trends, but also observe the supply and demand situation within the industry.
From this to that, let's look at the coal industry. It is also because of the high coal prices that stimulated a huge increase in coal production, which led to the current sharp drop in coal prices and a large-scale drop in stock prices.
To this day, many big Vs are still saying: "Coal stocks are high-yield value stocks and are worth owning."
Some people still harbor illusions and comfort themselves: "This is just a temporary adjustment, and we are optimistic about the long-term prospects."
However, when we move the time forward to four years ago, coal stocks, oil and non-ferrous metal stocks were in the same situation, or treatment.
Back then, no one looked down on these stocks. These sectors belonged to the "sunset industry", "backward sector" and "stupid, big and rough industry" that were not worth mentioning.
It’s just that in the past two years, coal stocks have been riding the wave and the share prices have risen, so they have been shrouded in many halos.
Without these halos, it is essentially just a strong cyclical stock.
Moreover, if the performance of the coal sector declines sharply in the future, its PE is bound to rise sharply, and its dividends will also decrease, eventually causing the halo of high-yield stocks to fade away, revealing its true nature as a strong cyclical stock.
Everything is cyclical, and the value of a company also fluctuates in cycles.
Even a strong company like Vanke could not withstand the end of the real estate cycle. Its stock price has been halved twice, so it has had to cancel its dividends and is in a difficult situation.
Therefore, I still stay away from the coal sector.
Perhaps, this sector will continue to rise in the future, even reaching new highs.
But that's beyond my comprehension, and I won't take that risk.
Similarly, for strong cyclical stocks such as gold, copper, aluminum, tin and shipping companies, if there is an imbalance in supply and demand in the future and futures prices plummet, I will also sell them without mercy and will not fall in love with them.
In summary, when we invest, we must also have a bottom-line mindset, cherish our reputation, protect our funds, and not expose our holdings to any risks.
Therefore, we must pay attention to all negative news about the companies we hold, and even like it and study it. Only in this way can we discover changes in the industry at the first time, so that we can withdraw in time and avoid major losses.
Third: Saudi Aramco cooperates with Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical.
Welcome to A-shares.
Stock market news:
After browsing the financial information, A-shares opened.
Yesterday, the gold, copper, kerosene and non-ferrous metal sectors were slaughtered. After today's opening, the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded sharply, but only the coal sector continued to fall.
In addition, as expected, Tianqi Lithium opened at the lower limit, -9.99%, closing at 40.63 yuan, which was 70% off the highest price of 148.57 yuan. The dividend yield was around 7%. Hong Kong stocks fell even more thoroughly, plunging by more than 18%.
Faced with this price, many big and small Vs are eager to buy at the bottom.
The reason is simple. The price of lithium has reached about 100,000 yuan. Coupled with the large amount of production capacity put into production this year, the industry has suffered huge losses. By next year, there will definitely be a large amount of production capacity idle or even eliminated. Coupled with the explosion of new energy vehicles, it will directly lead to a reversal of the cycle in the industry.
However, I'd like to remind you that the supply-demand imbalance in the lithium industry is already clear. If they're suffering losses this year, why can't they continue to do so next year? Why can't they continue to do so the year after? What strong cyclical industry, once reversed, wouldn't suffer losses and lead to a complete reshuffle?
The cyclical reversal of an industry does not happen overnight, but is a process of continuous evolution. Now there are still a large number of production units continuously coming into production in the industry. It is unscientific and irrational to simply linearly speculate that the industry will reverse next year or the year after.
At the very least, we have to wait until this industry is completely ruined, everyone is cursing it, and no one dares to invest, before we consider buying in.
Just like five years ago, everyone looked down on the big, black and crude coal, oil and non-ferrous metals.
Think about how you felt back then.
When investing in cyclical stocks, you must take a long-term view, and look even further ahead, and don't be impatient.
While chatting and laughing, a large wave of funds poured into the non-ferrous metals sector, and several non-ferrous metal stocks began to rise sharply again. Huayu Mining even soared by more than 8% at one point.
It plummeted yesterday and soared today.
"Really - like a psycho..." Old Chen sighed.
Shareholder Q&A: None
Everyone is welcome to provide negative news about strong cyclical stocks.
I'm so bored today, and I guess my brothers are bored too. Since I'm bored, I might as well take advantage of Tomato and give him a free love generator^_^.
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com