Chapter 349 Will there be a bull market this year?
Friday, March 7, 2025.
Shanghai Composite Index opening: 3373.18 points
It's been more than three months since I last updated.
The market has been fluctuating around 3300 points for more than three months.
I believe that many people, even many old stock investors,
My heart is always beating like a drum, full of doubts.
Will there be a bull market this year or in the future?
Some people have even become disappointed and left the market completely.
After a few months, let us look back and re-examine.
When we first started writing this book, we identified several basic conditions for this bull market.
We can draw a conclusion,
Even though this round of market has been going on for more than a year, it is only the beginning.
The future bull market, even the big bull market, or even the super bull market,
Still quietly waiting for us to fight.
As we reopen the book, let us review how these conditions have changed over the past few months:
First: domestic and foreign macroeconomic policies.
On March 6, Governor YH said that my country will choose an appropriate time to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates this year.
At the same time, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, and further rate cuts are expected in the future.
On the other side of the ocean, the market still expects that interest rates will be cut two or three more times in the future.
Money is like water and the stock market is like a boat.
With the three major economies of China, the United States and Europe working together to ease monetary policy at home and abroad, the future stock market, especially the domestic stock market, continues to be optimistic.
Second: domestic stock market trends.
In the past few years, deleveraging, especially in the real estate industry, has caused a downturn in the domestic economy.
It also caused the collapse of the stock market, especially the real estate sector, and related industrial chains.
Nowadays, these industries, after several years of hard work, have gradually come to an end.
The landmark event is that the industry leader, Vanke, suffered a loss of 45 billion yuan in 2024!
The entire industry, in an extremely brutal deleveraging, began to squeeze out the abscess after the stock price plummeted.
In other words, it has fallen no further.
After all, it has been discounted by 20% from its peak.
Other, even more miserable companies have gone from struggling to death to almost disappearing in this round of elimination.
For example, Evergrande, which was once so glorious,
Looking back a few years ago and looking back now, it is really sad.
In the face of the power of the times, no matter how powerful you are, you cannot reverse the course of events.
Therefore, whether you are a person, doing things, or even investing, you must go with the flow and not go against the flow.
Follow the way of heaven and keep your original heart.
Third, domestic policy.
For a long time, or starting from August 2023, the governance, integration and expansion of the domestic capital market has been put on the agenda.
Many people don’t believe it.
Still jumping around.
Even the upper echelons have spoken out again and again,
Still can't save it, the funds keep flowing out, the market keeps falling,
But there are also people who believe and stick to it.
It was not until September 24 last year that the urine holding battle between China and the United States was decided and the market exploded!
Now, nearly half a year has passed.
The upper echelons are still releasing good news.
He also said, "DeepSeek is driving the revaluation of China's assets."
Indeed, today, on a global scale, my country's asset quality and capital market position are still at a low level, which is extremely attractive.
In summary, the blogger still believes that the domestic capital market is still on the bull road.
With the further easing of my country's monetary policy in the future, the economic cycle will turn upward and the market will further explode.
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