Chapter 346 This is the Slow Bull
Thursday, November 21, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 23.85, Shanghai Composite Index: 3362.94 points.
The index fluctuated around 3,300 points, causing investors to feel uneasy.
I am afraid of a sudden surge and missing out.
I am also afraid of a sudden drop in price and being trapped.
The market was so anxious and tortuous, it went around and around for a day, two days, three days, five days, or even a month.
Everyone is dizzy and their hearts are numb...
I have forgotten both the decline and the rise, and I have forgotten both the bulls and the bears...
Then, suddenly at a certain moment, the market took off again and went up another level.
The stockholders suddenly realized the truth and rushed in, shouting: "The bull is not gone, the bull is still there, hurry up and chase it..."
Then, there was another wave of strong callback, and another wave of anxiety...
This is the slow bull.
As slow as a snail, but always moving forward...
1. Musk plans to streamline 99 federal agencies and cut 77% of employees.
Trump's team is considering establishing the first cryptocurrency position in the White House.
These days, the Trump-Musk team is busy preparing for the next US government.
Many people are watching with envy how it carries out its "reforms".
The market is also hesitating, waiting, struggling, and pricing.
The next wave of Sino-US confrontation.
2. Wall Street Journal: "Ford plans to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe by the end of 2027"
British media: "The EU wants to force Chinese companies to transfer technology."
SWB: "We will plan ahead for next year's car trade-in policy."
There are many interpretations of new energy vehicles on the Internet.
Even many famous Vs are claiming that new energy is useless.
Some people say: "Once the price of oil drops, new energy vehicles will instantly revert to fuel vehicles."
Some people also say: "The current new energy vehicles are only because of government subsidies. Once the subsidies stop, they will lose their competitiveness in an instant."
And so on and so forth.
It’s all because of the concept.
When analyzing and judging something, especially a major industry, we must start from the perspective of interests and users.
It’s just like how smartphones replaced feature phones back then.
Today's new energy vehicles far surpass fuel vehicles in terms of handling, comfort, and safety.
The only thing that may worry consumers is perhaps the safety of the battery.
However, this problem is not a problem as long as technology continues to advance.
Expanding our horizons, we can see the new energy industry, especially the intelligent connected vehicle industry that has been launched since the end of last year.
In the future, it is going to completely change the global automotive industry landscape.
In the future, it is a conspiracy to completely change the economic strength of important countries in the world.
This year is the first year of intelligent driving.
Nowadays, it can be judged that in China, in the field of smart cars, BBA has been completely dethroned in just one year.
At the end of this year or the beginning of next year, a large number of BBA dealers will run away.
In the future, in the global automotive industry, BBA will completely get rid of its luxury halo and become just like everyone else.
Next year, more brutal competition will begin, and many manufacturers will follow in the footsteps of BBA.
Next year will be a year of transformation, a year of elimination, and the first year for smart cars to go global.
Let's wait and see.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Huang Lao School loves to boil water": "Those involved are confused and have fallen into the vast wave of chasing rising and selling falling."
The blogger has never advocated chasing rising and selling falling prices, and will not do so in the future.
This portfolio adjustment was made after careful consideration.
In the future, with Trump taking office, there will be more and more uncertainties, and the overall logic of the big inflation cycle will basically remain.
The difference lies in whether Trump's messing around will trigger severe financial turmoil in the United States, thereby affecting international and domestic futures, finance, exchange rates, etc.
At the same time, the blogger also took into account that in this bull market, we should increase our offensiveness on the basis of defense and allocate more era tickets appropriately.
Of course, there are definitely many people asking questions.
What ticket to buy?
Why buy?
How to calculate valuation?
Also, will we be trapped at high levels in the future?
The blogger does not want to explain these in detail.
Because no one can make 100% accurate judgments about the future, the blogger is just recording and sharing the process of investment thinking.
However, the blogger still solemnly reminds you,
When investing, stockholders must download an annual report, mid-year report, and quarterly report, calm down, and analyze them carefully.
How much money can this company make now?
How much money can this company make in the future?
Is the current price, this P/E ratio, worth it?
Be down-to-earth and have a clear idea of what you are doing.
Remember, don't gamble, gambling is a dead end.
You should buy targets with good performance and a bright future. If you really want to gamble, there are so many fun Landlord games online, you can try them.
2. "Natalie who likes oily food": "Where's Lin Menghan?"
The previous plots were just to recall the stock market situation in the past ten years.
It’s not necessary now, so I won’t write anymore. I’m a bit tired.
3. "Li Yunbiao, who loves fir wood": "Buying more at a high price will lead to losing everything! Think twice before acting!!! Stock market brother!"
After thinking it over, my current position is not too high.
Although it is much more expensive than before, even much more expensive, it is still relatively cost-effective.
Sometimes, I regret not adding more before. It's human nature.
But there is no medicine for regret in the world, we can only pay the price for our cognition.
4. "Yang Xiangtian from Yangzhou City": "The military industry should actually consider that it should be very prosperous next year."
I'm not familiar with it, so I don't consider it.
The blogger has shared this before. Based on the blogger’s current understanding, this round of market has three main lines: technology, smart cars, and nonferrous metals.
The blogger has never been interested in technology, so he previously chose non-ferrous metals and smart cars.
Now, considering the certainty, the blogger has chosen the small hand colored and the big hand smart car.
Looking back on the changes in holdings over the past year, I feel a lot of emotion.
Human cognition must continue to evolve.
Because once your cognition lags behind, it will directly affect your investment returns.
Investing and cognition are like rowing against the current, if you don’t move forward, you will fall behind.
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