Chapter 41: A Talk on Human Civilization and Current Occupations
When humans moved from knotting ropes to engraving on oracle bones, from bamboo slips to clay characters, from movable type to laser typesetting, and from paper reading to reading, listening, writing and visual feasts on mobile terminals.
Human culture has entered a period of diversified communication. The channels, speed, and frequency through which people obtain information are accelerating. Therefore, every reader is a knowledge base.
When it comes to any profession, you are no worse than me.
However, I still want to talk about it.
First, lifelong careers are becoming increasingly rare. In agricultural societies, productivity developed slowly, and many occupations were fixed. You might be a bricklayer your entire life, or a potter your entire life.
Because you will become more and more refined and better at what you do. However, technological civilization can suddenly take away your job. For example, if you are a master pottery maker and have mastered the secrets of pottery firing, your pottery will be very exquisite.
Technology has advanced, and now electric pottery is being fired. After a few attempts, you'll know the optimal temperature. Even if you watch over the kiln every day, you won't be able to produce products as good as those produced with an electric kiln.
Therefore, you may be unemployed. The rapid development of human civilization makes you feel that our relatively stable jobs are becoming fewer and fewer.
In many professions, you have to change your profession mid-term. Otherwise, you will have no food to eat.
In a person's life, especially for freelancers, in an era where products are constantly upgraded, if you don't keep up with the times, you will be unemployed.
All of this is the change brought about by technological progress.
When a mobile phone combines calls, photography, lighting, reading, shopping, inquiry, positioning, payment, ticket purchase, entertainment... in one, many things will lose their market or the market will shrink significantly.
For example, if households no longer install telephones, telephone sales will decline. However, you can sell mobile phones, learn how to repair them, open a mobile phone repair shop, or set up a factory to produce mobile phone parts.
For example, there are fewer and fewer cameras and film is used less and less frequently, but you can produce more sophisticated professional cameras for professionals to use.
For example, if the sales of flashlights are decreasing, you can produce power outage protectors.
For example, if the sales of paper books plummet, but reading still exists, you can write online novels.
For example, if shopping in physical stores is getting worse and worse, you can open an online store and become an internet celebrity by shooting Douyin videos.
For example, mobile phone positioning is becoming more and more convenient, and you can develop industries related to positioning.
For example, the frequency of using paper money is getting lower and lower, and mobile payment and ticket purchase are irreversible trends. You can develop online transfer software and hardware for the banking system, as well as ticket-grabbing software.
For example, if the opening rate of TV sets is getting lower and lower, you can switch to producing smart products, such as remote control curtains, sweeping robots, fingerprint locks and other smart home products.
In short, everything in the world will not really disappear, it will just be presented in a different way.
He who knows the times is a hero.
Some time ago, I saw a mother in her 30s teaching her 4-year-old child to read a children's book. When the child pressed his finger on an animal, the book would make a sound: horse, sheep, cow...
If you are young and want to start a business, you should go in the direction of technological life.
This is an irreversible trend in the intelligent era.
This is also a characteristic of the knowledge age.
Let’s talk about some physical occupations.
These professions will not disappear anytime soon.
For example, working on a construction site wouldn't be possible without human labor. Furthermore, delivering food, delivering packages, running a restaurant, learning to be a hairdresser, selling rice, driving a Didi... all of these activities currently rely on human labor.
However, due to the influx of capital, learning to be a chef isn't a one-size-fits-all approach. With the establishment of kitchen distribution centers, future chefs will only need to be strong enough to qualify. Simply shaking the wok a few times to heat up the pre-prepared dishes will be enough.
And once machine cooking becomes popular, your strength will be useless. Robot hands are much stronger than you, with great strength and no fatigue.
Relatively speaking, the intensity of human labor will continue to decrease, with heavy physical work gradually being replaced by machines. Therefore, purely manual work is also threatened.
For example, once Yuanda's prefabricated houses became popular, a house could be assembled with just a crane, and even the opportunities to work as plumbers became less common.
Knowledge becomes more important in this era.
If you no longer have the chance to change your destiny, you should send your children to read more books.
The technological revolution is accelerating.
The mobile phone mentioned above is the acceleration, which has destroyed many industries.
You have to believe that this acceleration will get faster and faster.
I bought a pair of glasses yesterday. They combine the functions of protecting against oncoming car lights while driving at night, answering calls, preventing astigmatism, listening to music without affecting other passengers, voice navigation, etc.
This is called intelligent integration.
In this case, do we not need to look for jobs or live anymore?
Yes, we want to live well.
In order to understand the situation clearly, we need to clarify the following facts right now.
Don't buy a storefront. Give up the idea of buying a house with the intention of increasing its value. Don't open a small shop and expect it to support your family like you did in the past. Don't do anything that goes against the general trend.
If you want to sell something, sell it cheap. This is also true because Chinese people have the habit of being frugal.
In 2007, Ma kicked Sun Mouyu out. This kick, in turn, created a serious threat for himself. Pinduoduo's market capitalization surpassed Alibaba by $5.084 billion this year, making it five times the market capitalization of e-commerce giant JD.com.
Everyone is holding their pockets tighter than ever before.
If you want to do business, focus on women and children. Don't you see, a pair of children's leather shoes only costs two or three hundred yuan? A declining population will only mean fewer kindergartens, but consumption won't decline; this sector will actually increase.
If you go to a big city to open a confinement center, be warned, it will cost 30,000 to 50,000 yuan a month to admit a new mother.
If you become a confinement nanny, you will earn more than 10,000 yuan a month.
If you sell high-end maternal and child products, wow, a female friend of mine earns four or five hundred thousand a year, and it's a part-time job.
So, if you want to do business, do healthy business.
It’s not that people don’t have money, they’re just conservative about major purchases. Investing in their own health and the next generation is a fixed expense. They’re willing to spend.
Of course, insisting I recommend specific actions for 2024 is unrealistic. Everyone has their own circumstances. I'm simply providing historical trends for your reference.
The last sentence is - I wish you read more books.
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