Chapter 490 Box Office, Box Office! (2/2)



With a rip, Shang Yechu wrote "8.72" on the paper.

The number stung her eyes. Without hesitation, Shang Yechu crumpled the paper into a ball and threw it into the trash can. The trash can was already overflowing with crumpled pieces of paper like this.

Qingping Entertainment's data department sends out evaluations daily, one for Shang Yechu and one for Ji Juntao. But compared to the data from these professionals, Shang Yechu trusts her own judgment more. These past few days, she's been jumping around, wishing she could memorize the entire national film database.

What Gu Wenhua knew, Shang Yechu naturally knew as well.

For films released during the Spring Festival holiday, the box office revenue from the first three days (Lunar New Year's Day, Day 1, and Day 3) generally accounts for 50% to 60% of the total box office revenue over the seven-day holiday. Unless a film achieves a remarkable turnaround through word-of-mouth or is a critically panned flop, this figure remains relatively stable. However, the subsequent performance after the Spring Festival holiday can vary drastically.

The first category is short-run commercial films. Box office revenue declines rapidly after the seven-day Spring Festival holiday. These films rely mainly on entertainment, humor, and large-scale marketing to capitalize on the festive atmosphere. Most are quickly forgotten after viewing, with little long-tail effect. The seven-day Spring Festival holiday accounts for the majority of this type of film's total box office revenue, often reaching 70% or even 85%!

The second category, films with moderate reviews, tend to have a slightly better subsequent development than the first category. They can maintain a certain level of popularity even after the Spring Festival and can last for another two or three weeks.

The third category consists of films that receive rave reviews and have a strong long-tail effect. This category is quite different. For example, animated films like "The Story of the Lanterns" will continue to be screened until Children's Day. Another example is the very few truly excellent films that, while not experiencing a sudden surge in box office revenue, have a very stable and sustained performance. These films typically account for only about 35% to 50% of the total box office revenue during the seven-day Spring Festival holiday.

What type of film is "Happy Street"?

As of the third day of the Lunar New Year, "Happy Street" had grossed 445 million yuan. The total box office for the seven-day Spring Festival holiday is expected to be around 800 million yuan.

If "Happy Street" were classified as a Category III film, then the highest possible box office would be 2.5 billion yuan—a figure that even Ye Chu wouldn't dare dream of. This is the most optimistic estimate, only suitable for entertaining children.

But if "Happy Street" is a first-category film...

Shang Yechu never even dared to dream of this!

If "Happy Street" lacks a strong long-term impact and is quickly pulled from the market after the Spring Festival holiday, then the lowest foreseeable box office will only be around 900 million yuan!

Shao Guangji's betting agreement requires a target of 1.2 billion RMB. This means that Shang Yechu is still stuck in a situation where he "doesn't know if he can win."

Shang Yechu felt even worse than if someone had stolen or overshadowed her. She was stuck here, caught between two equally unfortunate circumstances—what kind of situation was this?

Movie box office is unpredictable; it's only been three days, who knows what changes might occur in the future?

Shang Yechu calculated and recalculated, from the most pessimistic estimate to the most optimistic expectation, filling almost half a notebook. In the end, it was essentially a meaningless repetition. But this was the only activity that gave Shang Yechu a sense of security at this moment; eating and sleeping had now become torture.

She has done everything she could. She put her heart and soul into the roadshow, relentlessly promoted and interacted with fans on social media, and fully cooperated with the company's publicity department. She even swallowed her pride and personally begged each of her familiar actors and directors to help share the post.

Shang Yechu desperately wanted to shamelessly convince herself that "Happiness Street, Please Come In!" was a third-category film. But she was the initiator of this project—how could she and Gu Wenhua, the main creators, not know what kind of film "Happiness Street" was? An abandoned original novel, a cobbled-together plot, special effects built up in post-production, and a chaotic mess of cuts made to cater to the Spring Festival release—where was the substance? Where was the long tail?

After staring at the numbers on the paper for a long time, Shang Yechu became more and more anxious. She crumpled the paper on the table into a big ball and put it into the trash can.

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