Chapter 270: Inflation sneaks into the night, moistening things silently

I guess there must be many stock friends who think that I spend a lot of space every day to analyze and pay attention to various domestic and international events, which is rather missing the point.

In fact, these seemingly "useless" events and news are invisibly affecting the fiscal and monetary policies of various countries, and further affecting the financial markets of various countries, as well as A-shares.

In my trading system, the analysis of the macro trends is listed first. It is the most important part of my trading system. All analysis must start from here.

Stocks that do not conform to the overall macro trend will be vetoed.

Because my experience tells me that when speculating in stocks, or investing, if you follow the trend, everything will go smoothly. When the wind comes, even pigs can fly to the sky. But if you go against the trend, it will be extremely difficult. No matter how outstanding you are, you cannot withstand the collapse of the trend.

Therefore, investment should be based on the general trend.

Yesterday, breaking news came one after another, with no intention of giving everyone a break.

First, my country's CPI growth in April was 0.3%; PPI growth was -2.5%.

Compared with last month, the data is better, but it is still on the edge of deflation, especially the PPI data, which is still showing negative growth.

This means that monetary policy should be further relaxed in the coming months.

Second, water prices in Guangzhou rose by 31%.

Recently, water, electricity, coal, and high-speed rail fees have been rising quietly, and everyone should be familiar with it.

Combined with the CPI data above, it can be understood that the government is pushing up inflation when the CPI is low;

In fact, it should be understood as a cost transfer caused by the real estate industry hitting a low point, local finances being tight, and no longer able to "subsidize" these people's livelihood materials.

Also, in the face of widespread price increases for basic necessities in China, will this push up CPI data in the future? Will it have a positive impact on the commodities we care about most, and even be passed on to commodity prices and, through commodity exports, affect US inflation?

In fact, a round of inflation is quietly sneaking into our lives.

Third, after three months, IPO review resumed normalization.

After iron-fisted governance, IPO review resumed and the financing function of the stock market was restored.

We should not blame or ridicule this, nor be afraid and regard it as negative.

On the contrary, it should be seen as a positive thing.

Because, from the moment the stock market was born, it has served the purpose of financing. If one day, it loses its financing function, then it will soon disappear. What's the point of talking about a bull market? What's the point of talking about stock trading?

Historically, A-share IPOs have been suspended many times. The most recent and most similar one was the restart of IPOs in 2014, which triggered a bull market.

There is no need to worry about the restart of the IPO this time. I believe that just like last time, multiple plans have been prepared to deal with it.

Fourth, the daylight of government bonds.

Fifth, it is said that the April CPI data to be released by the Federal Reserve next week will show a drop that exceeds expectations.

Is this a hint of a future interest rate cut?

Fifth, the upper class ended their European trip.

The timing of this trip to Europe is very delicate, as it comes after Yellen and Blinken’s visits to China and before Putin’s visit to China.

During this meeting, China and France basically unified their positions on the Middle East and reiterated the two-state solution based on the "1967 borders."

As the main decision-maker in the European Union, after "parting ways" with the United States economically (interest rate cut in June), France unexpectedly once again demonstrated an independent diplomatic line politically, ending its years-long "fence-sitting" attitude.

You know, since the Sino-US dispute in 2018, other countries in the world have basically adopted an attitude of "watching the fire from the other side of the river" or even deliberately hiding, watching this fight coldly. They don't want to, or even fear to, be involved in this fight involving the status of the boss of the blue planet (they are afraid of being affected, and even so, Japan and Europe were almost fleeced by the United States).

Nowadays, in the game between China and the United States, it is obvious that the United States has shown signs of fatigue. Naturally, France has more "autonomy" and believes that it has a lot of "chips" to play the game.

In the future, the world situation will still be relatively complicated, but it will be much better than in previous years.

If we compare it with the KR war of that year, it has gradually shifted from strategic confrontation to the strategic counterattack stage.

Therefore, we should be optimistic about the future.

Q&A with stockholders:

"Jiang Nian from the Mountains of Southern Xinjiang": Industrial Bank's current price is over 17 yuan, and the conversion price is 24. Is it reasonable to buy it at 24 yuan when it expires? Does this mean that Industrial Bank's price may rise to 24?

Stocks and convertible bonds are two completely different investment products. The former has huge risks of rising and falling prices, while the latter has debt protection.

If you want to learn about convertible bond investment, you can buy the two books "Magic Book of Convertible Bond Investment" and "Attack and Defense" and study them systematically.

At certain specific points in time, convertible bonds are a better investment option.

It's the weekend, brothers, if you have time, take advantage of the Tomato discount and get a free gift for love.