Chapter 285 Sometimes, conspiracy theories can better explain some things

Wednesday, May 29, 2024.

Yesterday's news:

1. When French President Emmanuel Macron visited Germany, he pushed for the concept of collective defense in Europe, saying that in order to "face competition from China and the United States," "Europe must become more sovereign and independent in its economic policies."

Since the chairman visited France, French President Macron seems to have become much tougher, frequently talking about pursuing an independent and autonomous diplomacy for Europe, implying that he wants to eliminate the influence of the United States from Europe.

However, the world is full of fighting and killing. Whoever has the bigger fist is right. It is not enough to rely on empty talk, but also requires strength. I wonder how Macron will get rid of the remote control of the Americans.

Also, if the operation goes too far, will a bullet be fired from the muzzle of the Americans' gun?

Given the nature of Americans, this possibility is not impossible.

Before there was the assassination of Kennedy, and now there is the shooting in Slovakia and the plane crash in Iran. The Americans are anxious, but they can do anything.

2. ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said: "It is expected that interest rate cuts will be made twice or at most three times in 2024," supporting "the ECB's interest rate cut next week."

Meanwhile, France's finance minister criticized the hawks: "Wage growth faster than inflation is good news and will not trigger a rebound in inflation."

And, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "There is no need for the Fed to rush to cut interest rates."

There is also the news that "high inflation and high interest rates have reduced consumers' willingness to spend, leading to the closure of a large number of American craft breweries."

If you think about it carefully, you will find that sometimes, fiscal and monetary policies are not just purely economic policies, but also real political policies, and in order to achieve political goals, government officials will lie with their eyes open.

Interest rate cuts combined with wage increases will definitely lead to a rebound in inflation. They can say that it will not lead to a rebound in inflation, which directly negates the classic wage-inflation spiral structure in economics.

In addition, high interest rates will indeed inhibit consumption and economic growth. For the same company or family, when interest rates are relatively low, various burdens will definitely be lighter and they will be more willing to consume. When interest rates are very high, it will be like running with a 50-kilogram sandbag on the body. They will definitely tighten their belts, be frugal, and dare not consume.

But the Americans just refuse to cut interest rates and claim that their domestic economy is "booming" and there is still a shortage of labor. The scene of prosperity is really incredible.

There are only two ways to explain this situation.

The first one is that the Americans are lying and fabricating data. I have had this feeling before.

The second is that the American economy has undergone a stratified mutation, and this feeling has become increasingly stronger in recent days.

The so-called hierarchical variation means that in the grassroots work, such as the service industry, construction industry, transportation industry, and even manufacturing industry, the work is indeed in full swing and everyone is making money.

The premise is that the established trade barriers and the global anti-globalization trend have led to high inflation, high prices, and large-scale production in the country, which is in disguise protecting these domestic industries. It can also be said that it is promoting the development of domestic low- and medium-end industries.

On another level, that is, at the high-level levels of finance, securities, law, medical care, insurance, etc., with the support of ultra-high interest rates and the trend of US dollar repatriation, the profits of banks, securities companies and insurance companies will definitely continue to rise.

In order to strengthen and maintain this high profit situation, it is natural not to support interest rate cuts.

From this perspective, the American economy is really great.

But, think about it again, is the industry developed by the United States, which has been closed to the outside world, really competitive in the world?

And, more importantly, if this situation is maintained for a long time, its economic strategy of "small courtyard and high wall" strategy will inevitably lead to strategic contraction in the international arena, resulting in the breakdown of a large number of previously established industrial chains and the collapse of the comprador interest groups in other countries that it has carefully built.

This will affect the various interests that the Americans have previously formed around the world.

Can they accept it?

What's more important is that if America's basic industries, such as manufacturing, cannot form sufficient competition globally, and its financial industry cannot reasonably distribute profits to the grassroots people, then it will inevitably lead to a step-by-step increase in the cost of living in the country, layers of inflation, and ultimately unpredictable consequences.

This is also why some people recently pointed out that if the United States wants to reduce inflation, it should not raise interest rates but lower them.

Sometimes, conspiracy theories can better explain some things. For example, the United States is a bourgeois country, so the premise for the implementation of all policies is that capital must make profits at all costs.

Therefore, at this stage, the Americans have repeatedly delayed interest rate cuts, which means, to a certain extent, allowing capital to suck blood for a while longer.

As for other basic industries that are being sucked dry, the capitalists don’t care about your life or death. They don’t feel any pang of conscience whether the living standards of ordinary people are high or low.

Even more conspiratorially, capitalists are typical representatives of those who have a home but no country. Even if the Americans are played to pieces in the future, they can just move to another country, continue to play, and continue to live a life of luxury.

The rise and fall of a country has no moral constraints on them. They only care about themselves. Everything in the world is business, not them.

3. BYD has released the fifth-generation DM hybrid technology, with a range of up to 2,100 kilometers!

FAW-Volkswagen has started to lay off employees due to three consecutive months of declining retail sales.

Also, a few days ago, Porsche was forced to step down, and BMW suddenly gave subsidies to its dealers.

The lane-changing and overtaking in the automotive field has basically been settled.

There are two problems now.

One is that our powerful ships and guns can blast open the gates of several countries.

Another question is when our production capacity can keep up with sales, be sold globally, and transform the global automotive industry.

4. The State Administration of Financial Supervision: "We must promote the full regulation of all financial activities in accordance with the law" and "truly achieve 'teeth and thorns, sharp edges and corners'"

Xinhua News Agency: "Strengthening Patient Capital".

Let me repeat again, this time the supervision is serious. We must stay away from junk stocks and embrace "blue chip stocks" (don't stick to the old ways, blue chip stocks exist every year, but they are different every year and every generation).

Don't rely on luck and don't speculate.

Don't rely on luck and don't speculate.

Don't rely on luck and don't speculate.

As of the 26th, 93 new ST companies have been added in just over five months this year. If the remaining seven months are included, the number of stocks that have been ST this year will definitely exceed 100.

Last year, a total of 58 companies were marked *ST, of which 17 were delisted, 13 were locked in delisting, only 2 were delisted, and 4 were changed from *ST to ST.

This delisting rate is really high.

The resurrection rate is less than 10%.

It is very likely that the A-share market in the future will be like the current U.S. stock market. The ups and downs of the market may be limited to just a few dozen stocks, just like the seven sisters of the U.S. stock market are now lifting the market. Funds are gathering together to pull the index upward.

Stock market quotes:

Today, for some reason, the futures market saw no significant movement, and the Shanghai Composite Index remained relatively calm, fluctuating around 3,100 points. However, strong cyclical stocks in the stock market, particularly the nonferrous metals sector, began to surge, with the nonferrous metals ETF rising 2.88%. (Futures and stocks separated)

Huayu Mining, Zhangyuan Tungsten and Hunan Gold all hit the daily limit, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Zhuye Group and Hunan Silver all rose by more than 7%, and China Tungsten High-tech, Hunan Silver, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals and Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. rose by more than 5%.

In addition, Xingye Silver and Tin, Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation of China, Baowu Magnesium, Chihong Zinc and Germanium, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Germanium all rose by more than 3%...

In short, regardless of whether there are performance results or mines, the price will rise rapidly.

Against the backdrop of a significant increase in the mid-term performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, the enthusiasm for going long in the entire non-ferrous metals sector has been aroused, with a bit of the flavor of "Battle of the Periodic Table" in 2021.

It’s just that “water in mountain streams rises and falls easily.”

I hope that after this wave of growth, there will be further adjustments. I don’t ask for a sharp rise, but only a steady rise.

In the main room, Lao Wang's eyes widened, his eye circles red, and he slapped his thigh, regretting:

"Oh no! Was I wrong? Why is the non-ferrous metals sector still rising? Still rising sharply? Could it be that this sector is the real dragon?!"

"Lao Wang, didn't you say you would never buy it? What's wrong? Are you tempted?" someone next to him joked.

"Tempted?! Humph, I'd never buy in! The more it rises, the harder it will fall. Even though these stocks are rising rapidly now, whoever buys them will lose the most in the future!" Lao Wang said bitterly, "If I don't buy them, I don't believe they can go up to the sky!"

Q&A with stockholders:

"Fat Brother Lincheng": Israel's attack on the Gaza refugee camps is too cruel. The situation is becoming increasingly tense and Europe can no longer sit still.

Europe is in a really difficult situation. It is being overtaken by China and the United States economically, controlled by the United States politically, threatened by Russia militarily, and sometimes refuses to surrender spiritually.

If there is no strong person to integrate and support the EU, it is highly likely that the EU will disintegrate if the economy collapses in the future.

I have to say that the stock market is really a wonderful thing. When it goes up, people feel happy, and when it goes down, people feel irritable and uneasy.

The market has risen quite well today. Fellow investors, please click on the update prompt and I will give you a free copy to generate electricity for love.

Your support is my motivation for renewal.