Chapter 236: In-depth analysis of the "Nine Articles of the State" (Part 2): An earthquake in the financial circle is about to occur
In the previous article, we deeply analyzed the background of the introduction of the new "Nine National Policies" and what kind of financial market we want to build.
Let’s analyze this in detail.
How to build such a market, what measures have been introduced, and what impact will it cause.
Article 2: Strictly control the issuance and listing process.
Article 3: Strict and continuous supervision of listed companies.
Article 4: Strengthen delisting supervision.
These three pieces of content dominated the major financial media circles over the weekend.
Compared with the "Nine National Regulations" in 2014, the "Nine National Regulations" released this time are very, very specific, detailing what to do, how to do it, and how to supervise.
I've picked out a few of them for you to take a look at.
"Strengthen supervision of issuance and underwriting, strengthen supervision of all aspects of new stock issuance, inquiry, pricing, and placement, and rectify market chaos such as high-priced oversubscription and group price-cutting..."
"Strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies. For companies that have not paid dividends for many years or have paid low dividend ratios, restrict major shareholders from reducing their holdings and implement risk warnings..."
"Deepen the construction of the delisting system, and accelerate the formation of a normalized delisting pattern in which all companies that should be delisted are delisted and cleared out in a timely manner... Controlling shareholders, actual controllers, directors, senior executives, etc. who are responsible for major illegal delistings must compensate investors for their losses in accordance with the law."
It can be said that every shareholder applauded these measures, and some even felt a little excited.
However, we still need to be clear that the financial markets of any country are not used to alleviate poverty. They are all like the A-share market, with seven losses, two draws and one win.
Now the new "Nine National Regulations" have been issued.
On the one hand, the reservoir of wealth should be slowly transferred from real estate to the stock market (to more efficiently utilize, or create and destroy, wealth);
On the other hand, the goal is to build the casino into a world-class market, comparable to Wall Street, and to welcome small-time overseas investors to come and invest (gamble). (Utilizing – uniting – especially the European and American leaders)
Therefore, A-shares have only become slightly fairer since then.
Unlike before, when the bull market comes, big investors, various institutions, and shareholders of all sizes will frantically reap the profits.
Those who have some shame will just engage in insider trading and manipulate the market, which requires some technical skills; those who are shameless will simply falsify listings, make surprise investments, over-raise funds, and then their listing performance will change drastically, and then they will sell off large amounts of shares to make a killing.
Why are A-share bull markets short and bear markets long?
It’s because the leeks were cut too harshly.
To sum up: A-shares are still the same A-shares, just a little fairer and the rules have changed a little. This will help pull A-shares out of the vicious circle of short bull and long bear markets.
And the market will become more and more efficient.
The efficiency here refers to the fact that the market will discover profits more and more efficiently, and a large amount of funds will be actively or passively guided to the evaluation criteria of "everything is centered on the company's performance."
This will put investors' stock selection criteria to the test.
Article 5: Strengthen the supervision of securities and fund institutions, and promote the industry to return to its original purpose and become better and stronger.
In fact, the most essential and the one that should be paid the most attention to in the new "Nine National Policies" is this one.
What’s strange is that the content below this article basically does not appear in various financial media.
Because they are too embarrassed to write and want to cover up their mistakes.
Because the content of this one article will completely overturn the current rules of the game in the entire financial world and stir up huge waves in the financial world. (Shareholders: Get your melon seeds, peanuts, and small stools ready.)
I will just quote a few paragraphs and you can take your time to appreciate them.
"Guide industry organizations to establish correct business philosophies and properly balance functionality and profitability." (It's not just about making money)
"Actively cultivate a good industry culture and investment culture." (Your culture was not good before)
"Continue to carry out comprehensive rectification of industry culture, establish and improve a classification list system for practitioners and a professional reputation management mechanism." (If you can't do it, get out.)
"Resolutely rectify the negative trends of materialism, extravagance, pursuit of quick success and instant benefits, and flaunting of wealth" (If the ideology doesn't change, the person will be replaced)
It's no secret that China's financial world is plagued by widespread "soft bones," "worship of America," and "fear of America," and the prevalence of "leading the way" is perhaps highest among all industries. (Everyone understands.)
This has both historical reasons and practical reasons influenced by Wall Street.
However, as the dispute between China and the United States unfolds and as the decoupling between China and the United States continues, financial "decoupling" is also inevitable.
Naturally, the decoupling of thoughts is also inevitable. (If the body is decoupled, the soul must also be decoupled)
Therefore, these financial institutions will be subject to strong supervision.
As for how to regulate, we can summarize it with a sentence from the Central Financial Work Conference - "Persist in deepening the structural reform of the financial supply side."
At that time, industries such as coal, cement, glass, and steel had overcapacity, and supply-side reforms were carried out. The main measures were closing, stopping, merging, and transferring.
Now, the supply-side structural reform in the financial sector requires not only reforms in hardware, but also in software, especially in ideology, personnel, and quality.
In simple terms:
If you can do it, do it. If you can't do it, get out.
If you don’t change your thinking, then change people.
Therefore, there has been a rumor in the past two days about the public offering "salary cap order", which has been cut from a maximum of 15 million yuan to a maximum of 3 million yuan.
As a result, CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities were investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
This is not a joke, I'm treating you to a meal, and this time we're serious.
If investors don’t believe it, they can open the “Nine National Articles” themselves and read the last paragraph.
"Build an iron-clad regulatory force with strong political integrity, strong capabilities, and a strong work style. Give greater prominence to political development, deepen the comprehensive and strict governance of the Party, and forge a team of high-quality, professional capital market cadres and talent who are loyal, clean, and responsible."
"We must resolutely break away from erroneous ideas such as 'exceptionalism,' 'elitism,' and 'specialism.'"
"We will strictly and strictly improve the management of departing employees, crack down on 'shadow shareholders,' improper shareholdings, the 'revolving door' between government and business, and 'escapist resignations'..."
With such harsh words used at such a high-level meeting, it is conceivable that there will be seismic turmoil in the financial field in the future.
Those small groups that are disloyal, collude with foreign countries, and indulge in extravagance and debauchery will suffer a devastating blow, and the entire industry will fall into a state of major rectification.
The entire financial ecosystem will be restructured (giving equal weight to functionality and profitability, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to one oriented towards investor returns).
In summary, it is recommended that investors stay away from the brokerage sector.
Because, when the storm comes, you don’t know which ship will capsize, and a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
As for who will win and become a large international securities firm in the future, it depends on who has a higher political stance and whose philosophy is more in line with the concept of "financial development with Chinese characteristics."
Some stock investors may say that getting these people to talk about politics and become ethical financial workers is harder than getting a prostitute to become a good woman.
I think that as long as the stick is hard enough, they will be flexible enough.
Because the hard ones were beaten to death.
(There will definitely be pulls and back and forth for deep-seated reasons.)
The show has begun, stock friends, please wait and see
In addition: the new "Nine National Regulations" have been edited and the full version has not been released.
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Your support is my motivation to update.
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