Chapter 238: Analyzing the general trend, stockholders give their answers
I was very hesitant in writing the first 200 or so chapters, fearing that I would violate some of Tomato's rules and get the book banned. I felt very unhappy about it.
Especially when looking at the Shanghai Composite Index every day, writing about which sectors rose and which fell, I had to write with my nose pinched and a feeling of nausea in my chest.
As someone who works in cycles and long-term investment, I have to keep an eye on the market's ups and downs every minute to write a book. It is more heartbreaking than murder.
I quit.
God is annoying.
Even Lao Chen, Lao Liu, and Xiao Bo don’t write anymore. It’s so annoying.
We have already gone through the process of popularizing knowledge through storytelling, talking about operations, values, concepts, and cycles, so writing is boring, useless, and annoying.
From now on, the article will be divided into only two parts.
The first part is an analysis of international and domestic political and economic news.
The second part is to answer questions raised by stock friends.
Speak freely and don’t hide anything. If you want to ban this book, then ban it. I’m not afraid.
Now, let’s get back to the topic and take a look at last night’s financial news.
The first news: Tesla cuts 10% of its global workforce, more than 14,000 people.
I can say with certainty that the global automotive industry is about to change.
Take our country as an example, with cars priced at 200,000 yuan as the dividing line:
BYD has been selling like crazy in the low-end, high-volume models below 200,000 yuan, selling more than 300,000 units in March and reportedly more than 300,000 units in April, forcing domestic manufacturers and joint ventures to cut prices again and again.
The mid-to-high-end car market between 200,000 and 500,000 yuan used to be dominated by BBA, but now Huawei, Xiaomi, and new energy vehicles are competing fiercely...
Huawei, in particular, has overturned the rules of the game in the entire automotive industry with its unique intelligent driving system. Its Wenjie and Zhijie models are selling like hotcakes, and the Xiangjie and Aojie models to be launched in the future...
And the Xiaomi SU7, which just launched on the market thanks to its strong fan base...
It can be said that in the future, NIO, Xiaopeng and Li Auto will be gradually marginalized, and perhaps the only way out is to go overseas...
As for the traditional BBA, they have been completely stunned, with both volume and price falling. It is no joke that you will have to drive a BBA car if you don’t have money in the future. Didn’t the German Chancellor lead a team to seek refuge?
It is said that Audi and Mercedes-Benz will soon be connected to Huawei's intelligent driving system, and one of Japan's three largest car companies will also be connected to Huawei's intelligent driving technology...
It’s not that they have a keen eye for talent, but because if they don’t join, they will die.
The second piece of news: "Star fund manager" Cai Songsong has been released on bail, and the fund industry has implemented a salary cap order.
The new "Nine National Policies" are a landmark event. To accomplish this epoch-making task, this is just an appetizer for the cleanup of the fund sector.
The news said that there were not only three people involved in the case, but also other people.
Anyone with a discerning eye knows that they rely on the power in their hands to engage in insider trading or collaborate with third parties to reap the benefits of retail investors.
It is still too easy to make money in the financial industry.
Whether from the perspective of building a "financial power" or from the perspective of rejecting the requirement of "decoupling from the real economy and moving towards the virtual economy", fund managers will probably not have a good time in the future.
Because every country has limited top talents and limited funds. If it is too easy to make money in the financial industry, it will attract too many talents to flow into this industry, thereby weakening the manufacturing advantage.
Therefore, the financial industry must adhere to the "Nine National Regulations": "Handle the relationship between functionality and profitability" and cultivate a correct culture.
Savor it carefully.
At such a high-level meeting, every sentence and every word must be carefully considered, and only documents can be released after repeated review by the higher-ups.
I have never seen such a high-level meeting, where the documents released contained so many words that punish a certain industry.
Therefore, this incident is just the tip of the iceberg, and investors will have something interesting to watch in the future.
The third news: Saudi Arabia, China and Iran had a phone call.
A major change unseen in a century.
A careful reading of the three-party phone call reveals that the three parties have reached a diplomatic consensus.
Israel was bombed and could only swallow its bitterness in silence.
Because the big guys (China, Russia, and the United States) don't allow it to fight back.
It's uncomfortable, but I have to hold it in.
Q&A with stockholders:
A stockholder named “@利通” asked: The home furnishing sector lost eleven points (it was originally making seven points but for some reason it plummeted recently), and I’m starting to feel stupid.
I remember you said before that if you wanted the home furnishing sector to rise, you should switch to strong cyclical stocks.
At that time, I did not respond. Firstly, I felt it was impolite to give instructions to others on their operations. Secondly, I felt that there were some things that one would not understand unless one experienced them oneself.
The home furnishing sector has plummeted recently because it is a real estate sector.
The real estate sector is in the downward phase of a major cycle. The recent surge in Vanke A has affected a series of companies in the real estate industry chain, including home furnishings and building materials.
A stockholder named “@先島朱島的丰勇” asked: I really don’t know what the leading stocks of a financially powerful country are?
At all times, investors are the weak ones in the stock market.
Therefore, we must have a weak mindset. Whenever a new document is released, we must consider which stocks can benefit on the one hand, but on the other hand, we must also consider which sectors will be damaged.
Therefore, I have the advice that everyone should stay away from the brokerage sector.
Of course, it is possible that securities companies will see huge increases in value in the future, but this is not money that I know of. I can’t make money from it, and I won’t make it.
Stockholder "@@.人生如梦.@" asked: Big ships are still reliable, it's a 5-year high
As expected.
As early as Chapter 97, this section was mentioned at the end of the article.
As for the reason, I remember that the logic was explained in detail in a chapter of this book.
Why do I repeatedly say that if stock investors have the conditions, they should read the first 150 chapters of this book. It would be best if they can find some more information and review the super bull market from 2005 to 2007.
This is because, during a period of high inflation, the rise and fall of each variety has its own beginnings and ends, which I have also mentioned in previous chapters.
Generally speaking, gold, copper and oil, which have the strongest financial attributes, are the first to rise, followed by small metals such as aluminum, zinc and tin, as well as oil and dry bulk in shipping, and then the shipbuilding sector.
When it comes to individual stocks, different people have different opinions.
However, as long as you choose the right cycle, at least you will not lose money during this period. To be optimistic, you should even have a profit of more than 20% in theory.
The index is still over 3,000 points, and others are still losing money. That's good enough.
If you want to ask anything in the future, just ask me, and I will answer you like this: Tomato can close the account if it wants, and if not, then forget it.
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Fellow stockholders, use your hands to make money and send a free gift of love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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