Chapter 302: Hesitation before 3000 points
Thursday, June 20, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 5.5, Shanghai Composite Index: 3018 points.
It’s time to brag. I hope I won’t be censored today.
1. The UK's CPI data for May was 2%, and it is very likely that the UK will also cut interest rates.
In addition, Canada is also discussing further interest rate cuts in July.
The countries that are included in the US dollar basket index have cut interest rates one after another, which has indirectly pushed up the US dollar index and hindered the rise of commodities. The US dollar can hold up for a while.
However, the basin of water above my head became heavier as time went by.
This battle between goods and currency is still ongoing.
Two harmonious
The current ZZD is no longer the same as before, and just like the slippers army, it has upgraded its weapons.
Don't forget that China-Arab JS exchanges are ongoing.
3. Our Coast Guard vs. Fit Team.
Both the pictures and videos were exposed.
We've been very restrained.
Fourth, there is another thing that has been very hotly discussed in the past two days. That is, Pang Donglai renovated a store in Yonghui Supermarket. After reopening the store, the sales on the first day were 13.9 times the previous ones.
Pang Donglai is an outlier in my country's business field, an admirable person who has always been imitated, but few people can succeed.
In fact, if you look carefully at Pang Donglai’s business model, you will know that the fundamental reason for its success is “profit for righteousness”, or in other words, respecting employees, respecting customers, and putting people first.
Similar to Pangdonglai’s business model is Huawei’s employee stock ownership model.
They all distribute the bulk of the company's profits to employees and regard employees as their partners.
To be anti-capitalist and anti-human in nature and to “disperse wealth but gather people”.
Instead, like most entrepreneurs, or capitalists, they put profit first, put the vast majority of the profit into their own pockets, and desperately exploit the grassroots employees, regardless of their lives.
Naturally, such a hungry team has no fighting power.
This is also the reason why many people cannot imitate Pang Donglai and Huawei.
Because capitalists are reluctant to share profits with others. They only care about money, not morality or anything else.
Our country has passed the era of severe capital scarcity. At this special time point, we should reflect on and improve those profit-oriented business models from the West, and they should also be transformed into Chinese ones.
This should be the direction from now on.
There will definitely be people who will smear this, saying that it is a regression of the times, will lead to capital outflow, will cause capitalists to flee, and will worsen the business environment.
It depends on where you sit.
If you sit on the side of capital, you will naturally try your best to squeeze everything out, hoping to squeeze out even three drops of oil from the stone.
You are on the side of the people, so naturally you want to enjoy good working conditions, good salary levels, and good service attitudes.
However, this also requires costs to pay.
To a certain extent, capital and the people are two sides of the same coin, both contradictory and unified.
This is a new topic and direction in the current era of information explosion and extremely fast information dissemination.
Today's market:
Today's market situation is similar to yesterday's. If I were to describe it in two words, it would be: "volatile."
If I were to describe it in four words, it would be: "continue to fluctuate."
The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3015 points. On the market, nonferrous metals, coal, oil, shipping and other stocks opened high and then continued to fall. After falling, they slowly climbed up.
Popularity is low and trading volume is shrinking.
The Shanghai Composite Index is hesitant and indecisive facing the 3,000-point mark.
According to the rule of "integers must be broken" that we have summarized in the past, it is highly likely that the Shanghai Composite Index will break through 3,000 points.
However, even if the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3,000 points, it does not mean that individual stocks will continue to fall. Many stocks will refuse to adjust and may even start to strengthen.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Bei Luo Shi Men 9999": Crude oil futures funds such as Southern Crude Oil should also be able to benefit from this wave of bulk price increases, right?
In theory, yes, but it is not recommended to buy.
This is because there are many risks associated with this type of fund, such as excessive premiums, no dividends, high fees, and even inaccurate tracking of the index, etc.
For example, Southern Crude Oil LOF has only increased by 11% this year, while CNOOC has increased by 53%.
Moreover, the current price has fully reflected all the favorable factors. If you buy now, you should consider whether you are the one who can take over.
2. "Cold and indifferent Xiang Yunlue":
"Copper does have problems with upstream mining. It's currently in a tight balance, a weak balance that's easily disrupted, and therefore worthy of attention. I haven't done much research on aluminum, because historically, aluminum has always lagged behind copper in the transmission of bulk price increases. I'm more focused on gold because I believe that if we enter an era of de-dollarization, gold, currently the only standard of value, will inevitably drive its holdings. Furthermore, the main buyers here are central banks, who will likely purchase it regardless of cost to replace the dollar. I'm not very optimistic about the automotive sector. New energy vehicles do meet policy requirements and my country's goal of overtaking others, but replacing gasoline vehicles remains difficult. At the very least, current infrastructure construction isn't worthy of a 50%+ penetration rate, and there are many criticisms about battery life and stability. I'm also keeping an eye on semiconductors and believe there's hope for a cycle, but currently, it's only in the high-end sector, such as 3 and 5 process nodes and DDR5 storage."
In the automobile sector, it is inevitable that new energy vehicles will replace oil vehicles. About 200 new cars were launched this year, and only about 20% were fuel vehicles.
In addition, many people still have various misunderstandings about new energy vehicles, especially smart cars.
First, due to design reasons, the signal transmission speed of hybrid vehicles is limited. They can only be considered new energy vehicles, and not, and will not become, smart cars.
Therefore, BYD is very anxious now.
This is because cars priced above 200,000 yuan are also the most profitable segment in the automotive industry. Without intelligence, it will be difficult for them to be competitive enough in the future.
However, BYD is now investing money in research and development, and should be able to catch up in the next two years.
Second, there are many fake smart cars on the market, confusing the concept.
At this stage, in the process of automobile intelligence, no manufacturer has yet achieved fully autonomous driving.
What is truly realized is only active safety, that is, intelligent AEB.
In this field, HW is leading by a huge margin. For this, investors can look at the tests of Tongji University and Pacific Network.
Many other car manufacturers are using immature smart driving technology to confuse concepts.
Among them, the most important are the traditional joint venture fuel vehicle manufacturers and BBA behind the scenes.
Now is a period of change. By next year, when the HI-mode cars of manufacturers such as Great Wall, GAC, Dongfeng, FAW, and Changan come out, the entire automotive industry will be bustling.
Of course, this is also a challenge for the smart car selection model that is currently building a high-end brand.
As for semiconductors, I don’t know much about them and I’m not very interested in these technology companies.
3. "Kiba Yuji of Fairy Lake":
Could you please comment on GZMT stock and the overall liquor industry's current outlook and outlook for the next few years? Is it worth buying now? Also, are there cyclical trends in the liquor and pharmaceutical industries?
The name of this stock cannot be revealed, as it will be reviewed if it is revealed. It is probably because its weight is too large and it will affect the overall market index.
I don't understand medicine.
As for the liquor industry, it is a typical cyclical industry with a cycle of ten years. The current process of destocking and de-financialization is what happened ten years ago.
(The chapters after Chapter 33 of this book provide a detailed introduction to the liquor destocking situation ten years ago).
At this stage, wait and see.
Because de-financialization cannot be completed all at once. It will take at least a year and a half, or even more than two years to see the clear results.
Ideally, the bottom will be reached in the second half of next year.
However, whether it will continue to rise depends on the CPI curve and the process of re-financialization.
However, I am also afraid that after the policy of "housing for living, not for speculation", there will be another policy of "alcohol for drinking, not for speculation", ^_^, just like the double kill of the 9-month limit and plasticizers.
Let's watch the show first, don't be anxious.
Because without a crash, there will not be enough room to realize huge profits in the future, and there will be no value in participating.
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