Chapter 318: Reflection: Don’t be trapped in your own grand narrative
Friday, August 9, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 4.11, Shanghai Composite Index: 2879.87 points.
For Li Feng, today's market situation is half sea water and half fire.
Internationally, the Japanese yen stopped raising interest rates, domestic and foreign stock markets generally rose, and commodity prices generally rebounded.
Tin prices, in particular, soared by 4% due to limited supply, and the stock price once rose by more than 6%.
However, has the risk of a hard landing of the European and American economies really been eliminated?
What if it is not released?
In the smart car sector, SERES remained calm, hovering around 75 yuan, but BAIC BluePark's stock price plummeted for several consecutive days.
Because the company only received 2,500 orders on the first day of its release.
However, no matter from which perspective, it is impossible that the number of orders on the first day was only 2,500 units.
But, it happened.
Not only did it happen, but it was also announced.
The weirdness here is really hard to believe and cannot be explained.
Because, with such a low number, anyone with a little common sense would know that it would not be released, but why was it released? Didn't they know that it would cause an uproar in public opinion?
Also, wouldn’t it be better to do more big data as the industry’s unwritten rules do?
However, the bloody accounts tell investors that all this is true.
After this incident, Li Feng looked back again.
Suddenly I found that my smart car positions had risen to as much as 50% without me noticing, as I subconsciously avoided the risk of a hard landing of the European and American economies.
Although the grand narrative and logic of smart cars still exist,
However, even the most powerful logic needs strong performance to support it. Don't let your thinking be trapped in grand narratives.
It will take time to prove the performance of smart cars. At this moment, is it also a risk to place so many positions here?
Should I reduce my holdings?
But if we don’t invest in smart cars and want to avoid the risk of a hard landing of the European and American economies, where else can we invest?
Banking? Real estate? Insurance? Pharmaceuticals? Consumer goods? New energy? Technology? Shipping and shipbuilding? Non-ferrous metals stocks?
It seems that the future certainty of these sectors is either not optimistic in terms of macro trends and cycles, or they will be affected by the risk of a hard landing of the European and American economies in the short term.
When he was having difficulty making a decision, Li Feng suddenly thought, maybe he was too sensitive to these macro events?
He also thought that during this period, domestic and foreign stock markets and futures markets had already anticipated a hard landing of the European and American economic recession.
Does this mean that the recent plunge in stock prices and commodity futures prices has already reflected the risk of a hard landing of the European and American economies?
Everything in the future becomes a little unpredictable.
Previously, some stock friends also left messages and shared suggestions, suggesting holding shipbuilding stocks and enjoying the silly happiness.
However, although the performance of shipbuilding stocks will be upward in the future, the shipbuilding sector is not all bright, and its future exchange rate gains will probably be affected.
How to arrange positions appropriately?
Li Feng pondered for a long, long time.
Suddenly, he remembered a saying widely circulated on Wall Street: "The market will not price the same thing twice."
This sentence immediately alerted Li Feng.
After thinking for a while, Li Feng sold the JAC shares he had just bought two days ago and bought back the Aluminum Corporation of China.
And decided to balance the positions again next week.
He decided that even if the European and American economies experienced a hard landing and commodities plummeted again, he would still be able to withstand a sharp correction in his account.
Of course, if the European and American economies experience a soft landing, the performance of the stocks held will naturally take a step forward.
After all the hassles, Li Feng looked at his holdings and couldn't help but sigh:
"The more I invest in stocks, the more I feel like it's gambling. Nothing in the world is 100% certain. Everything in the future is full of variables and uncertainties."
"Furthermore, the more critical the moment, the more variables there are, and the more uncontrollable directions there are..."
“Many times, I am just running from a big uncertainty to a smaller uncertainty.”
“Perhaps, it can be said that when disaster strikes, there is no safe haven in the world.”
"Perhaps, it is precisely because of my long-term habit of holding a full position that I became so sensitive and helpless when faced with this major crisis."
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