Chapter 319 Looking Forward: The Starting Point of the Future A-share Bull Market
Monday, August 12, 2024
Jisilu temperature: 3.88, Shanghai Composite Index: 2858.89 points
Today, the turnover of the CSI 300 Index was only 495.881 billion yuan, setting a new low in four years!
The land volume and prices are low, and the growth of many sectors and stocks this year has been negative.
Li Feng has been working on this project for the past few days. Against the backdrop of turbulent financial markets in Europe and the United States, and the general logic of declining market transactions,
We had to attack on three fronts.
As a result, there were gains and losses, but in the end, all the work was in vain.
This farce finally proved one thing again.
That is, it is too difficult to make money in short-term speculation.
If you want to make money, you can only rely on medium and long-term stock holdings.
Now, looking back, Li Feng feels a lot more open-minded.
1. The current point is indeed a historic low.
Stockholders should choose good stocks with excellent performance and promising future prospects and sow seeds for the future.
Or, a simpler and easier way is to buy the CSI 300 Index.
It can not only avoid the danger of accidentally falling into a trap due to improper stock selection, but also outperform the Shanghai Composite Index in the future.
In the future, the Shanghai Composite Index should be led by large-cap blue-chip stocks.
Second, we must avoid the risk of dollar depreciation or even dollar reset.
In the future, the dollar will depreciate, or even depreciate sharply, and the risk of a dollar reset is an established fact.
Therefore, we must avoid this risk in advance.
I believe that many listed companies, especially those in the textile, electromechanical, machinery, and even automobile industries, are foreign exchange earning export enterprises.
They still haven't been able to hedge their forward US dollar positions. Some companies even don't convert the foreign exchange they receive into RMB, but instead, they buy a lot of financial products denominated in US dollars in order to attract high interest rates on the US dollar.
These are all potential risk points in the future.
3. There will definitely be high inflation in the future, and there is still the possibility of major earthquakes in the European and American capital markets in the medium and short term.
Everyone should be mentally prepared.
At the same time, based on the logic of hyperinflation, it is still not recommended to hold consumer stocks.
4. The European and American markets have entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, and my country is about to enter a cycle of interest rate hikes.
Therefore, for our country, the current speculation in government bonds poses great risks.
And this is why there are rumors today that two banks have been banned from trading government bonds.
This is a warning from above, an active effort to control interbank risks.
At the same time, based on this logic, the performance of European and American banking systems will decline significantly during the interest rate cut cycle in the future.
This is also the main reason why the stock god Buffett liquidated his bank stocks.
5. Often, investing only requires common sense.
However, facing the unpredictable future, no one can be sure which path is the right one.
The most important thing that needs to be determined at the moment is whether there will be short-term financial turmoil in the European and American financial markets after the interest rate cut cycle begins.
Regarding this matter, I didn't comment on it before, and I could only say it was 50-50.
But, after careful consideration,
I think that since the US dollar will definitely depreciate significantly and reset,
Then, it will definitely cause financial turmoil.
This may be caused by the collapse of European and American bank performance, or by the poor performance of the Seven Sisters of the US stock market, or it may be caused by other reasons.
By then, the international stock market will crash, and the domestic stock market will also plummet.
At that time, it will be the best time for short sellers to enter the market (a window period of about 2 months).
Because GJD will definitely support the market,
Part of the international capital will definitely flow into gold for risk hedging, while the other part will flow into RMB assets for risk hedging.
At that time, it will be the starting point of a real bull market in A-shares.
Of course, we are also happy to see a soft landing in the European and American capital markets, slowly entering the interest rate cut channel, and at the same time, my country's A-share market entering an upward channel.
Unfortunately, this is only a small probability.
Fortunately, this window is very short.
Around September, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates will be an important judgment point.
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