Chapter 325: It’s already clear, the only thing missing is a gun to your head
Friday, October 11, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 13.19, Shanghai Composite Index: 3287.87 points.
In just four days, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted from 3674 points to over 3200 points.
Today, it plummeted by more than -3% again, breaking through 3200 points.
The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index plummeted again by more than -5%.
The temperature in Jisilu also dropped from over 20 degrees to over 10 degrees.
Many stock investors have already shouted the slogan of a seven-day bull market and a short-lived bull market.
More experienced stock traders analyzed: "The huge negative line with huge volume on October 8th is a tombstone line, exactly the same as the one on August 18th last year. The market will continue to fall and plummet..."
"Just wait for it to break 3,000 points. I'll be waiting for you at 2,600 points."
Market sentiment is so fickle.
A few days ago, I was so excited that I shouted that the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 10,000 points is not a dream.
After a few days of decline, people started to shout in fear that the Shanghai Composite Index would break through the previous low.
Just like a willow in the wind, it sways with the wind, chasing the rise and selling the fall, without considering the factors behind the market.
1. The flowers are so beautiful that they are dazzling, and only the shallow grass can hide the horse's hooves.
Amidst the fear and pessimism, some sectors have already quietly set sail.
The initiators are those prophets who knew that the spring river water would warm up.
In the morning session today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than -1.8%, but the intelligent racing and nonferrous metals sectors bucked the trend and strengthened amid expectations of a significant increase in third-quarter performance.
The shipping sector, which had surged in the past few days and also surged yesterday, has all fallen.
This is typical sector rotation.
In other words, a full-scale bull market is not allowed, but bull markets are allowed in certain sectors and individual stocks.
Stock investors come here because of the bull market, and they see bulls everywhere and all stocks are good.
Unfortunately, it fell as soon as I bought it.
Once you sell, the price goes up.
Being in a bull market but not knowing the bull,
Each sector has a trend of rising for a few days, followed by a few days of rising, then a few days of falling...
Therefore, in this kind of twists and turns, stock investors were dazzled and confused.
Before I knew it, the bull market was over, and I became the last person to pay the bill.
2. Monetary policy has become cautious.
Today, I took some time to look at YH's second and third quarter monetary policy meetings.
In terms of price statements, the second quarter is: "Maintain reasonable liquidity, guide reasonable growth and balanced issuance of credit, and keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with expected targets of economic growth and price levels. Promote a moderate recovery in prices and keep prices at a reasonable level."
The third quarter is: "Maintain reasonable liquidity, guide reasonable growth and balanced issuance of credit, keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with expected targets of economic growth and price levels, and promote prices to remain at a reasonable level."
The words "promote a moderate recovery in prices" have been removed.
So, although we are currently lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates,
However, YH has begun to be wary of future inflation.
The inflation here is both externally imported and endogenous.
Therefore, we must pay close attention to changes in the comprehensive market interest rate in the future, especially in the second half of next year - the year after, it is very likely that the market interest rate will enter an upward trend.
If, at that time, the Shanghai Composite Index is also at a high level, we must be careful.
3. It’s already clear.
It's almost like he's holding a gun to your head.
On October 19, ZJH will deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting.
The theme is: "Promoting high-quality development of the capital market through comprehensive deepening of capital market reform."
The topics are:
First, "better leverage the functions of the capital market to promote the development of new quality productivity."
Second, "adhere to investor-oriented approach and vigorously improve investor services."
What is high-quality development?
In fact, it is to change a fast bull into a healthy slow bull.
The purpose of slowing down the bull is to "help the development of new quality productivity."
Therefore, that hand clearly points out the future theme direction - "new quality productivity".
This is also one of the reasons why the blogger thought about it many times before adjusting his portfolio.
4. The US dollar index reached 102.92
I have to admire their expectation management.
Although the interest rate has been cut by 50 basis points and will continue to be cut in the future, it only takes a few words to make the US dollar index start to rise again.
However, if we look at the international prices of gold and nonferrous metals,
In other words, we know that the Americans are playing games again. The US dollar index is rising, but the US dollar is secretly depreciating relative to the fact that these commodities are depreciating.
5. Washing is healthier.
Before I knew it, it was time to close again.
I took a look at the plate and it was really clean today.
The Shanghai Composite Index plunged in the afternoon, falling below 3,200 points, a drop of more than -3%.
The Shenzhen Component Index plummeted -5%, falling below 10,000 points.
The ChiNext was even worse, plummeting by more than -6%, the worst
It is true that a sharp rise will inevitably lead to a sharp fall.
It comes quickly and goes even faster.
The blogger still sticks to his previous point of view and says again that you should be careful about the real estate sector, especially the liquor sector.
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Chen Xiaotian": "If you gave me a sweet date yesterday, you will be punished with a stick today."
How can you take the money from the shareholders' pockets without knocking them out?
2. “User 35092702”: “I will never sell. I will increase my position if the price drops. Although my position is already fully invested, I will increase my position as long as I have money.”
This position is a little bit high.
I still miss the time when the index was around 2700 points.
3. "Xuanwei who likes fragrant pears": "What about the phosphate mines like Chuanfa Longmang? Can they also be considered as inflation-benefiting stocks?"
I don’t know much about phosphate rock, it’s not within my area of competence.
When analyzing any bulk nonferrous metal, in addition to inflation, we must also consider the supply and demand aspects.
4. "Xia Tong from Changning": "Brother, can you tell me some tips on how to read financial statements? Which indicators are more practical?"
It is very easy to read the report, as long as you have a middle school level knowledge.
However, these reports can only be viewed.
Because if there is something fake in it, ordinary investors will not be able to see it.
They are professionals in cooking the books.
The key to reading a report is to see the "changes and trends" in it.
We need to look at the macro situation, the industry, and the future of individual stocks to see whether the situation is good or bad relative to the present.
After all, stock trading is a three-step process: speculation on expectations, performance, and growth.
In fact, all it takes is a little common sense.
It is easy to judge which industry has potential in the future and which individual stock will see a significant increase in performance in the future.
If you can't see it at first glance,
If you have to analyze it from all sides and think about it from front to back, it means that this industry and individual stocks are not good targets.
5. “The Golden Leopard of Kunlun Taoist Sect”: What does “Jisulu Temperature” refer to?
An indicator from a forum, which is full of experienced bloggers who use it to judge market sentiment.
Generally, if this indicator exceeds 50, you should be cautious.
The market closed again. The market went from early trading to midday trading, and then it rose sharply at the end of trading.
It's another exciting day.
These days, many new investors have entered the market.
Among the readers, there are many new stock investors and new faces.
You are lucky because you caught up with the bull market.
You are also unfortunate, because when the bull market ends, you will not make much money.
Because, or the stock age is too short, it takes time to hone,
I advise these friends again not to borrow money to invest in stocks, not to use leverage to invest in stocks, and only use spare money to invest in stocks.
Because you have to leave yourself a way out.
Even if this fails,
There will be a chance to make a comeback in the future.
Instead of leveraging all the leverage at once, blocking all the back roads, and putting all the money at stake,
If that happens, once you fail, there will be no recovery!
There will never be another chance to make a comeback.
Time, life, is very long.
When it comes to making money, you can’t be in a hurry or rush.
Take it slow, slow, steady,
Don't be afraid of no chance.
Opportunities are always there, no matter the market is bullish or bearish.
What you are afraid of is that when the opportunity comes, you are not there and you have no chips to bet with.
Finally, I still want to shout out, brothers, please support me and click on the reminder to update. I will give you a free "Power for Love".
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