Chapter 326 Some New Changes
Sunday, October 13, 2024.
Temperature in Jisilou: 8.87 degrees, Shanghai Composite Index: 3217.74 points.
This weekend was not peaceful either.
In major financial forums, the bulls and bears are arguing fiercely, each saying that they are right.
The future of the stock market is somewhat unclear.
An unspeakable mystery is spreading.
However, it was in this state that some new changes began to occur.
1. Slightly, adjust the outlook.
Over the weekend, the CZB released a series of policies.
Many stock investors, without even taking a look, began to be led by others without knowing what was going on.
In fact, the amount of information contained therein is enormous.
In general, this meeting is to resolve DFZ and allow the issuance of bonds to "buy houses and land".
Also, issuing special government bonds to replenish bank capital.
(Fiscal policy has begun to truly leverage the DFZ and real estate industries)
This is a fundamental injection into the real estate industry to ensure "strict control of growth, optimization of existing stock, and improvement of quality."
This is completely different from the "three red lines" (blood drawing) in 2020.
It can be said that the real estate sector has basically completed the deleveraging task (large-scale defaults) since the active deleveraging in 2020 and the "blood transfusion" started now.
At this sensitive moment, we should no longer be overly bearish on this field.
However, if we are to be bullish, we should not be overly bullish. It can be considered a bit of a waste.
Because the era of real estate has passed forever (the relevant logic has been discussed in the previous chapters).
Don't dream of another era of widespread real estate speculation and universal prosperity. (Many influencers still dream of restoring the former glory of real estate.)
In the future, the ideal result will still be to exchange time for space.
If house prices go up a little and inflation goes up a little more, all the accumulated debts will be "defaulted" on.
2. Where is the blue ocean of the future?
Looking back over the years, each stage of my country's economic development has its own characteristics.
For example, around 1996, the domestic white appliance industry was flourishing, and a large number of manufacturers producing color TVs, refrigerators, and washing machines emerged.
But in the end, only a few companies such as Hisense and Changhong came out.
From 2005 to 2017, my country's real estate industry experienced a period of rapid growth. During this period, the whole nation was engaged in real estate speculation and real estate development was underway across the country.
But in the end, it’s the knockout round now.
Also, around 2013, the era of smartphones exploded, and a large number of mobile phone manufacturers emerged. In the end, only a few are left, enjoying the winner's dividend.
These dividends of the times are also reflected in individual stocks in the stock market.
In fact, my country's economic development has indeed reached a bottleneck.
This is also the reason why our country has often been on the defensive in trade wars in the past few years.
From a macro perspective, the biggest difference in economic strength between China and the United States is that American companies are the best at global operations.
Whether it is basic planting and mining, mechanical processing, or advanced instruments and meters, chip operating systems,
American companies have achieved global layout and reaped huge economic, cultural and even ZZ/JS dividends.
As for the current situation, Chinese enterprises have basically achieved globalization in basic mining industries and more advanced mechanical processing, such as white goods and mobile phones.
However, in the fields of automobiles, chip management systems, and cultural communication, they are limited to the domestic market, and are even on the defensive in the domestic market.
And this is the future of my country's enterprises going overseas.
To achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and win this competition between China and the United States, we must not only win in most industries at home, but also go overseas and win in most industries globally.
3. Future market conditions.
In the future, for a period of time, there will be a situation where you can make money without making any profit from the index.
We should pay less attention to the index and more attention to individual stocks.
It is expected that during the third quarter reporting period, excellent individual stocks will outperform the index, directly breaking through the high point of individual stocks on October 8, and develop an independent trend.
However, it will be very difficult for individual stocks in other industries to break through the highs of October 8.
As time goes by, more and more stocks and sectors break through the highs of individual stocks on October 8.
The market index will definitely break through 3674 points at some point in time.
At that time, the funds that have been waiting on the sidelines will flock in again.
We must be clear that although around October 8, a large amount of funds were locked up in the market,
But, those who came in to take over at that time were just a group of gamblers.
Outside the market, the crowds and funds are still waiting and watching.
There is much more to it than this.
Once the market breaks through 3674 points, it will usher in another wave of rise, or even a surge!
Shareholders exchange:
1. "Heartbeat and Clear": "From now on, despite the big rise during the National Day, major listed companies are still reducing their holdings in large quantities, and there is still a long way to go before we can reach a fair market."
right.
There are still too many junk stocks and goblin stocks in the market, so you must keep your eyes open when investing.
Do more subtraction and less addition.
2. "Mr. Song from Canglong Ancient Pavilion": "I think China Construction and China Power Construction have very good performance, but their net worth is also below. Is there any possibility of rising in the future?"
It may rise, or it may not.
We need to see how much room for growth there is in the future and then decide how much position we should take.
3. “Love in the Champs Elysées”: “I bought a Shenzhen property today. I don’t know if it will plummet on Monday.”
have no idea.
The blogger made some revisions to his views on the real estate industry today.
From the previous strong pessimism, it has become not recommended and ignored. It can be regarded as useless.
4. "Luo Zhiyong who loves to eat spicy shrimps": "If the trend of this bull market is new-quality productivity, then in which direction should we make our layout, and how should we select the corresponding stocks?"
My point of view is very clear.
If you don't know, please read the last 50 chapters.
Also, I don’t recommend the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
5. "Kiba Yuji of Fairy Lake":
"Ping An of China has seen more gains than losses in recent days, reaching a 100-day high. Isn't it said that rising bond yields caused by interest rate cuts are bad news for the banking and insurance industries? Could it be that the fundamentals are improving due to the stock market's temporary performance and the government's continuous policies to support the real estate market?"
This is a factor, after all, Ping An of China is known as the real estate stock in the insurance industry.
As for the negative impact of interest rate cuts on insurance, why did it hit a new high?
That is the result of the combined choice of funds, and we small retail investors cannot decide it.
All we can decide is what we can and cannot buy.
We can only decide what to do with the money we have.
For bloggers, they will definitely follow their own investment principles and will definitely not choose targets that do not conform to their own investment system.
You cannot buy just because it goes up or trade just because it goes down. You must have your own logic, system and views.
Don't just follow the crowd and chase rising prices and sell when prices fall.
Also, special thanks to brother "cbf185" for his great care.
Fellow shareholders, please come and urge for more updates and show your support.
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