Chapter 328: Sino-US resonance, promising future
Tuesday, September 24, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.11, Shanghai Composite Index: 2770 points.
Today, the central bank cut interest rates, lowered the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered the interest rates on existing mortgages, and pioneered monetary tools to support the stock market, with four measures launched simultaneously.
The Shanghai Composite Index surged, rising by over 3% at one point and breaking through 2,800 points!
During the trading session, sectors such as banking, insurance, securities, nonferrous metals, and liquor all rose sharply.
This directly shattered the idea of many investors that the Shanghai Composite Index would continue to open high and close low.
Many stock investors, faced with the skyrocketing market, are at a loss, frightened, confused and puzzled.
really.
The overall market has risen by more than 3%, and if individual stocks can perform a little better, they will have to rise by more than 5%.
Faced with the long-awaited market that has been falling for half a year, there is suddenly such a big rise.
I couldn't believe my eyes.
Almost every stock investor had a question in their mind: "A-shares, has this happened?"
"Does it deserve it?"
However, amid this mood of suspicion, questioning, and disbelief, the environment inside and outside the market is slowly changing.
1. China and the United States’ monetary policies began to resonate.
In the early morning of September 19, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, announcing that it had officially entered the interest rate cut channel, ending more than two years of "high-interest deposit-taking."
This directly alleviates the external concerns surrounding the introduction of my country's loose monetary policy, allowing for more room to maneuver and stimulate the economy.
Sure enough, today my country's central bank launched four measures at the same time and began "official" easing.
The first move is to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points.
The second move is to adjust the mortgage interest rates for existing homes.
The third move is to create new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market, which is equivalent to a disguised entry of the central bank into the market.
The fourth move is to lower the interest rate of 7-day reverse repurchase by 0.2 percentage points, guiding market interest rates to decline.
China and the United States are both easing policies and printing money, ostensibly to stimulate the economy.
In fact, it is also to stimulate the economy.
But the end result is that there will be more currency than goods, which will cause severe inflation in the future.
At the same time, as the water between the international and domestic markets increases, the stock market will inevitably be gradually lifted up, and the boat will rise with the rising water.
2. It’s not accidental.
In fact, everything has a traceable path.
The CSI 500 Index Fund was listed in batches at a rapid pace, and its position building time happened to be in these few days.
It can be said that today's surge is based on relatively precise deductions.
It is based on policies that exceed expectations and the accumulation of tens of billions of new funds.
It's like the gunpowder under a rocket. As long as it is ignited at the right time, the rocket will soar into the sky.
At this moment, it is already autumn.
It is exactly the time for winter sowing and spring harvest.
At this moment, China and the United States have begun to resonate and ease their monetary policies, and the future market outlook is promising.
3. Rare expressions.
In certain historical periods, there are bound to be some rare and memorable expressions.
For example, in the economic policy meeting published in the fall of 2007, "preventing overheating and inflation" was listed as the top priority.
And the “housing for living, not for speculation” policy, which was first proposed at the end of 2016.
And so on and so forth.
These impressive statements all represent the biggest market maker, who uses his invisible hand to regulate all aspects of the country and is destined to and will definitely influence the direction of the stock market.
This time is destined to be the same.
This time the impact is greater than ever before.
Because the policies introduced this time are directly aimed at the stock market.
First, the central bank created a structural monetary policy for the first time, requiring that "the funds obtained can only be used to invest in the stock market" and cannot be used for its own business.
Moreover, it was revealed that "the first phase is 500 billion yuan", and another 500 billion yuan will be added in the future, or a third 500 billion yuan.
Secondly, "guide commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders to buy back and increase their holdings of listed company shares." "The first phase is 300 billion yuan, and if this work is done well, additional funds can be added later."
This straightforward statement and the support of real money are tantamount to telling all major institutions and the majority of investors that "the stock market is going to rise."
This is also the case, following the favorable news on August 18 last year, this time real money is involved.
Whether you believe it or not, or whether the institution believes it or not, it doesn’t matter.
Before I knew it, it was already past two in the afternoon and the stock market had risen to an outrageous level.
Li Feng took a sip of tea and just closed the webpage when a phone call came.
"Li Feng, the market has soared by more than 3%. What's going on? Can we still buy?" Lao Chen's anxious voice came from the phone.
"Are you short?" Li Feng asked doubtfully.
"Oh... yes, the market was too depressing in the past few months. It was falling every day... The economy was not good, and there were news of unemployment everywhere. I planned to short-sell and take a few days off..." said Old Chen.
"If you buy now, you'll be chasing the rise..." Li Feng said with a frown.
"Yeah, I don't know whether it's a real rise or a false one. People say there are many long bull markets in a bear market. What do you think? It can't be a trap, right?" Old Chen expressed some doubts.
Li Feng shook his head and sighed unconsciously.
Old Chen is a typical stock investor who is afraid to hold stocks at the bottom, wants to chase higher prices at high prices, but is afraid of being trapped.
It's very similar to the retail investors who have been repeatedly beaten black and blue by various negative and positive factors in the bear market in recent years.
Li Feng knew that even if he told Lao Chen that he could buy, he would not dare to buy it, and he felt that he should not buy it, just like the current market sentiment.
Basically, most investors are bearish and short selling at 2700 points.
However, don’t you know that at this point, the risk of being bearish and shorting is higher than the risk of being bullish and long.
You know, in investment, missing out is also a risk.
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