Chapter 327: The Americans cut interest rates, and nothing can stop us from going this far.
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Jisilu temperature: 2.42, Shanghai Composite Index: 2723 points.
Several very significant events have occurred in the past few days.
1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations.
Close the door and beat the dog.
The offshore RMB rose directly above 7.07.
Many people who want to have the best of both worlds but fail to repatriate funds to China in advance are in an awkward situation.
Of course, if the money does not flow back in time, it is very likely that the RMB will continue to appreciate, and the possibility of it rising above 7 cannot be ruled out.
At this critical time when global capital flows are changing dramatically,
The United States has released more money than expected, so naturally other European and American countries will not sit idly by and will continue to release more money in a big way.
Of course, our Guo Jia will not be idle either.
If you loosen the monetary policy, I can certainly loosen the monetary policy as well to prevent the RMB from appreciating too quickly.
The result of global money printing is that there is more currency than goods, causing severe inflation.
as a result of?
The Americans are not afraid because they can rely on printing money and using their minting power to reap the benefits of other countries.
Resource-rich countries such as the Middle East, Russia, and Africa are not afraid. If you loosen the liquidity, I can raise prices.
We are not too afraid. If you loosen, I will loosen too. If you raise the price, I will raise the price too. We can still get out of deflation.
The countries that really suffer are those that have neither power nor resources.
For example, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Maldives, etc.
No one will care.
When the eldest and second oldest brothers fight, it is the third and fourth oldest brothers who die.
Therefore, with the arrival of a new round of global money printing, hyperinflation is about to make its debut.
2. The Middle East BP machine incident.
Whether you admit it or not.
Since 2018, the whole world has entered a new era of "Cold War".
And it is getting worse.
Until now.
All major hot events in the world today are based on this most basic fact.
This round of stubborn inflation cycle is also like this.
Because of the dual constraints on the supply of resources (mining and OPEC) and commodities (cross-cycle and supply-side reform),
At the same time, decoupling between China and the United States and anti-globalization are underway.
This led to a lot of things that were difficult to understand.
For example, after the US raised interest rates to 5.25%, it still couldn't curb inflation.
Also, we have already lowered interest rates to very low levels, but we are still experiencing deflation.
Today, this global team-style "new cold war" has broken through people's moral bottom line.
Civilian products were actually used for military purposes.
It is no less than the white-clad crossing of the river in history.
This will directly lead to countries around the world doubting and reconstructing the global supply chain, which will further lead to the occurrence of deglobalization.
In fact, wars have already been going on for many years in the fields of economy, politics, technology, information security, etc.
Now is the critical moment for the battle between China and the United States in the battle between hypoglycemia and hypertension.
It is also the time for global capital to place new bets with real money.
The blogger personally believes that A-shares have truly embarked on a bull market.
Because after the global capital has been recirculated, the three elements of capital, policy and valuation, especially the most important point of capital, have shifted.
A-shares are on a bull run, and nothing should be able to stop them. (Note: This excludes consumer stocks such as liquor, consumer goods, and real estate.)
3. Future twists and turns.
A-shares broke through 2,700 points as expected two days ago.
Today, stimulated by the interest rate cut by the United States, the stock market turned red.
During the trading session, non-ferrous resource stocks shined, with Jiaozuo Wanfang, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Copper and China Aluminum all rising by more than 6%. Liquor and real estate stocks also soared, with several companies hitting their daily limit.
The American stock market also seems to have stabilized.
However, sugarcane is not sweet at both ends.
It is impossible for the US stock market to keep rising. It is impossible for the stock market to rise when interest rates are cut, rise when interest rates are raised, and continue to rise when interest rates are cut, and rise forever.
Similarly, it is impossible for A-shares to fall when interest rates are raised and continue to fall when interest rates are lowered in the future.
The blogger still maintains his previous judgment.
In the future, as the US begins to cut interest rates, the US stock market will continue to rebound and fall, and even a sharp drop cannot be ruled out (it may be possible to release more money than expected to stabilize the US stock market).
A-shares are moving upward amidst ups and downs.
The Chinese and American stock markets will present a strange seesaw structure.
The coming year should be a better year.
Against the backdrop of massive easing in China and the United States and a shift in global capital flows, A-shares have finally seen a turnaround.
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