Chapter 326 The US Dollar Index is just a fig leaf
Friday, September 13, 2024.
Jisilu temperature: 3.29, Shanghai Composite Index: 2718 points.
Yesterday's news:
1. Last night, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Governing Council member Simkus said today that more rate cuts are necessary.
Former New York Fed President William Dudley said the Fed has reason to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.
No matter whether the data is true or false.
Europe and the United States have truly entered the interest rate cut channel.
Amidst the expectation of massive money flooding, the price of gold directly broke through the new high, rising above $2,562.
Although the current US dollar index is still around 101 points, its true value has been reduced a lot without people noticing.
The US dollar index is just a fig leaf.
In essence, it is just a ratio relationship relative to other currencies, not the true value of the US dollar.
Or, to put it bluntly, if you let the water go, I will let the water go too. Then, in comparison, it seems that no one is letting the water go. It seems that no one is letting the water go, right?
But in reality, if you release water, he releases water, and I release water, the result is that the water level keeps rising, and a huge wave of flood is coming.
The price of gold is a yardstick that can truly reflect the value of currency.
2. Liquor stocks officially began to collapse.
Yesterday, the liquor stock plummeted by more than 3% and broke through 1,400 yuan.
Today, the big brother continued to fall by 2% with large volume, breaking through 1,300 yuan.
The real major adjustment in the liquor sector has finally arrived.
The time came much later than the blogger expected.
It has to be said that the funds in liquor stocks are more tenacious than those in real estate stocks, the beliefs are more firm, and the profits of the companies are easier to adjust.
Many people are waiting and watching.
Many people are eager to buy at the bottom.
Whenever the price of Big Brother falls below an integer, it will attract a wave of bargain hunting, but it will eventually continue to fall.
Until it fell below 1,000 yuan, it attracted a large number of bargain hunters.
In the pounding heart, I threw myself into the fire without hesitation.
There are many reasons to buy at the bottom.
Some look at PE, some look at dividend yield, some look at business model, and some even look at the attitude of big Vs.
However, the collapse of an industry cycle cannot be changed in a moment, nor can it be repaired in a year or two.
Inevitably, with the massive shrinkage of industry profits and the extreme pessimism in investment sentiment, no one was interested in it after a few years.
The current state of the liquor industry is like the real estate industry in 2021.
The ghost stories have just begun.
Of course, one day in the future, strong cyclical stocks will also reach this point.
Everything is cyclical.
No one is exempt from this.
Today's market:
On the last trading day before the holiday, the market was dull and boring.
During the trading session, with the gold price hitting a new high last night and the non-ferrous metal futures rebounding,
Gold stocks rose collectively, with Zijin Mining, CICC Gold and Shandong Gold rising by more than 4%. Other strong cyclical stocks such as copper, aluminum, tin, coal and oil also performed well.
Only the liquor sector plummeted again, hitting a new low.
Some people think that the dividend rate of liquor stocks is quite high. For example, Luzhou Laojiao has reached 5%.
Some people also think that the price-earnings ratio of liquor stocks is very low, basically around ten times.
Some people think that most liquor stocks have fallen by more than half and are thinking of buying at the bottom...
However, in a downward industry cycle, everything changes.
As a company's revenue and profits decline, its dividend rate can change from high to low, and its price-to-earnings ratio can also change from low to high.
Also, after it has fallen by half, it is possible that it will be cut in half again, and then cut in half again. It is not impossible...
It’s just as tragic as the real estate stocks in the past.
Until finally, delisted stocks appear.
Sometimes, we cannot see the future clearly, but we must stay away from companies in the downward channel of these industries.
Because you don’t know where its future lies.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
As the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, I would like to say a few words to wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival, all the best, and a prosperous stock market!
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