Chapter 239: Re-discussing the Decoupling of China and the United States

The first topic we discussed was the decoupling of China and the United States.

Everyone is talking about decoupling between China and the United States.

Yellen said, however, that she is not seeking to decouple from China.

Is there really a decoupling between China and the United States?

We can't just spread rumors without thinking, we have to rely on data.

Let’s take the data released by the General Administration of Customs a few days ago for analysis:

First, imports and exports exceeded 10 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year, and the growth rate of imports and exports hit a new high in the past six quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 5%.

Second, the import and export trade with the "Belt and Road" and BRICS countries was higher than the overall growth rate, reaching 47.4%; the import and export volume with the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea accounted for only 33.4% in total.

It can be seen from this set of data that trade with developing countries has already occupied the majority of my country's trade chain.

Let’s look at the detailed import and export trade figures by country from January to March.

It is very obvious that the import and export trade between my country and the EU is still shrinking, and the decline even widened to -3.5% in March.

Trade with the United States also shrank from 3.7% in January-February to -0.7% in March.

Import and export trade with Japan has dropped sharply for three consecutive months; the scale of trade with South Korea has rebounded.

In contrast, trade with Asia, Africa and Latin America, especially with ASEAN, Latin America and Africa, continued to expand, far exceeding the growth rate of 5%.

This shows that, based on the data, China and the United States are indeed decoupling, and this trend is even expanding.

This trend can also be confirmed from the data released by the United States - in 2023, the United States' imports of goods from China fell by 20% year-on-year.

This is a two-way rush against the backdrop of the great competition between China and the United States.

Therefore, it led to the current situation.

Therefore, not only is there a shortage of goods in the United States, but there is also a shortage of workers to produce goods. The economy is booming and inflation cannot be suppressed.

To some extent, this is also a kind of manufacturing return.

In other words, an industry downgrade.

Return and transfer from high-profit areas such as chips, large aircraft, aerospace, military manufacturing, and finance to manufacturing.

However, this kind of return can only be sustained on the premise that the manufacturing industry has "relatively high profits".

And inflation is the result.

Raising interest rates is this kind of reaction.

However, long-term high interest rates will lead to expensive costs for the US dollar and weaken its international status, but that is a story for another time.

Second topic: National Bureau of Statistics releases data: National real estate development investment in the first quarter fell 9.5% year-on-year compared to 2023

In my previous articles, I have repeatedly said that the real estate industry has a 20-year cycle, and even with the most optimistic estimates, it will not recover until 2028.

Therefore, the entire sector is still far from bottoming out.

Some people may argue that real estate is the mother of the economy and an important pillar industry with a scale of trillions of dollars, and it is impossible for the authorities to ignore it.

Indeed, the higher-ups will take care of it.

However, it is limited to dragging it down, letting it fall slowly and land smoothly. As for who will survive in the end and how miserable it will be, no one knows, and there is no need to go through the tiger mountain.

As for the impact on the economy, it now seems that developing new energy industries, especially new energy vehicle industries, is a good direction to break the deadlock.

The third topic: Israel wants to retaliate against Iran.

Don’t you listen to your elder brother?

Do big things to die.

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted by 1.42% and returned to 3013 points, directly wiping out the gains announced by the "Nine National Policies". The ST sectors collectively collapsed during the trading session, the non-ferrous metals sector plummeted, and only oil and coal performed strongly.

To be honest, the nonferrous metals sector needs an adjustment, and a severe adjustment would be best, preferably a cut in half.

In the past, everything else fell, plummeted, but yours rose, and rose sharply. I don’t know how many people hated this sector, and of course I don’t know how many people were eyeing this piece of fat.

A big V with more than 400,000 followers on the forum shouted after reviewing the market last weekend: "Other sectors are rubbish, only cyclical stocks are the mainstream sectors", and he wants to go ALL IN.

It's so scary.

Of course, there are also investors who have just entered the stock market, such as the famous media person Lao Hu, who is still struggling on the edge of losses.

In addition, there are also highly skilled big Vs who have sold off strong cyclical stocks one by one at high levels. Although they are optimistic about the long-term outlook, they are bearish in the short term.

Here, I can only say "blessings".

Everyone can only earn money within their own understanding and cannot be forced.

Stockholder Q&A: "Long Jiao who likes Kui Zhou Long": It seems that people are going to be driven to take over those super giants.

Playing tricks is the job of the dealer and the main force. We can't beat them, so don't even think about it. It's useless to think about it.

If we want to win, we can only rely on playing the cycle.

Ambush at the bottom of the cycle and sell at the top of the cycle.

This is our open conspiracy.

I'm not afraid to say it, because every cycle is clear and involves the flow of hundreds of billions or even trillions of funds. What I say is useless and will not have any impact.

Now I have let it go and I can say whatever I want to say.

The market is still at more than 3,000 points and is about to break through 3,000 points. At this position, I don’t know how many big Vs and investors are bearish and shorting.

From the year before last to last, and from last year to this year, please continue watching, thank you!

You are responsible for continuing to be bearish and controlling the index, and not letting it rise too sharply to attract regulatory control; we are responsible for making money and also controlling the index, and not letting it fall too sharply to bring risks.

Many people will ask, why are so many people bearish at this position?

This is because you can't lose money by being bearish.

Moreover, the majority are bearish on this position.

Only when a bearish outlook is in line with the psychology of most stock investors can one reap the benefits.

Let me say it again, now is the starting point of the bull market, and the core theme is the big inflation cycle. This argument has not changed.

The risk of being bearish and shorting is huge right now.

Why?

Because, if you are bearish and short selling now without holding any positions, when the bull market comes in the future, as soon as you enter the market, you will be standing on the top of the mountain, and you will be the one to take over!

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Fellow stockholders, use your hands to make money and send a free gift of love.

Your support is my motivation to update.