Chapter 331: High-level fluctuations, holding stocks is like being a widow

Friday, October 25, 2024.

Jisilu temperature: 15.72, Shanghai Composite Index: 3280.76 points.

It's obvious that the atmosphere has warmed up.

Every day, there are big bull stocks emerging, with consecutive or multiple limit-up days. Even Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical has achieved 23 limit-up days in 26 days, and Hytera has achieved 18 limit-up days in 22 days...

Make money every day.

The stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the ChiNext are so gorgeous that they are purple in color, stimulating investors to the point that their eyes are as red as lanterns.

In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index has been more restrained, having fluctuated around 3,300 points for half a month.

There is a high possibility that the market will continue to fluctuate for another half a month.

I was so impatient that I started to rush into the fire, trying to turn my bicycle into a motorcycle...

Those who are not impatient are still watching the show and waiting.

Most of the time, investing is so boring. All you have to do is wait.

Because, a stock may only rise 5% of the time in a year.

The rest of the time, most of the time it fluctuates, and a few of the time it falls...

1. Porsche's sales price fell below 400,000 yuan, and Mercedes-Benz's net profit in the third quarter fell 54% year-on-year.

It is reported that Porsche plans to expand its R&D team in China and add intelligent driving and smart cockpit R&D departments.

If the first half of new energy is electrification, then the second half is intelligence.

The combination of the two is the now widely publicized intelligent connected car.

(Wisdom, ability, and car: wisdom comes first, ability comes second, and car comes at the end).

Nowadays, the traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers have not yet fully realized intelligence, let alone electrification.

This has led to a continuous decline in today's rapidly changing market.

For example, in my country, BYD has been unstoppable in the low-end car market of RMB 200,000. It has also gone abroad with its momentum and started to capture foreign markets.

It relies on the new energy of automobiles.

In the high-end car market with a price of more than RMB 200,000, car companies represented by NIO, Xiaoli, Li Auto and Hongmeng have beaten BBA back step by step.

What it relies on is the intelligence of the car.

From a certain perspective, fuel vehicles and smart vehicles are already two different species.

BBA is the Nokia and Kodak film of the past. If they fail to keep up with the wave of intelligent automobiles, they will soon be eliminated.

This time is faster than anyone imagined.

Because, if you were standing around 2014, you would know how smartphones replaced feature phones within two or three years.

Then, in the next two to three years, you will also see how today’s smart cars will replace fuel vehicles in two to three years.

Because, whether in terms of safety, comfort or economy, smart cars far surpass fuel cars.

2. Let’s talk about smart cars in detail.

Previously, I shared the logic about smart cars with my fellow investors, such as the macro and micro aspects.

However, due to limited space,

Also, I don’t want to elaborate too much so as not to mislead investors.

Because the current smart car investment targets have a high price-to-earnings ratio, which is contrary to my previous extremely conservative investment model.

Compared with previous targets, there is greater uncertainty.

However, these days, stock friends have been constantly discussing the logic of smart cars, especially investment targets in smart driving.

The differences are too great to be explained in a few words.

Therefore, the blogger will share his own views for your reference.

1. Cars priced above 200,000 yuan must have intelligent driving.

Whether you believe it or not.

In the future, at least L4 level of intelligent driving will definitely be realized.

So, nowadays, if you want to buy a car, whether you consider the value retention or the driving experience, you must consider whether it has intelligent driving.

Without smart driving, the future of cars will be like Nokia, which will depreciate very quickly at some point in the future.

Because basically no one uses it.

You can see this by looking at how many people are still using Nokia.

According to my observation, nowadays, even elderly people in their sixties and seventies basically have a smartphone.

The future of fuel vehicles is the present of feature phones.

2. Which company has the best intelligent driving technology?

Regarding this issue, the various opinions on the Internet are just repeating what others say, which is dizzying.

It's a bit like the husband has his own reasons and the wife has her own reasons.

A few months ago, a well-known OEM said that my intelligent driving technology is the best.

A few months later, another giant OEM said, "My smart driving technology is the best."

A few months later, another famous OEM said that my intelligent driving technology is absolutely the best and I always win first place in all kinds of competitions.

The major KOLs/KOCs on the Internet are also competing to use various terms to explain the technology of the sponsors, confusing consumers.

But which route is the correct one?

This not only determines the future technical route,

It also determines who will ultimately win in this war of intelligence in the future.

In other words, this determines the future life and death of the OEMs.

For us investors, this determines the future and the question of success or failure.

Have to think twice.

The blogger believes that the first problem that needs to be solved for intelligent driving technology is safety.

To be more specific, is this system's AEB working?

Regarding this issue, many people, or most people and OEMs avoid talking about it.

Because they don't have the technology.

Or, very badly.

Even, very bad.

From the evaluation released by Pacific, we can see that only the intelligent driving technology of the HW series can achieve active safety in most scenarios, and even stop at 120 kilometers.

The rest of the options are terrible.

This involves safety issues, only first, no second,

Because, life only happens once.

The second problem that needs to be solved in intelligent driving technology is

It's about whether you have the ability to be independent.

As we all know, now is an era of great competition between China and the United States. The United States has launched a trade war, a technology war, and even a virus war against my country without any bottom line.

A few days ago, it imposed a 100% tariff, completely closing the market and not allowing my country's new energy vehicles and parts to enter its market.

In the future, if one day, my country's new energy vehicles go overseas and dominate the market, affecting its interests,

Will he issue an order to cut off the supply of chips to GT and YWD?

By then, will the cars previously equipped with these chips turn into bricks?

It's not impossible.

Of course, when it comes to factors like safety and autonomy, everyone feels that they don’t matter, or even the probability is very small.

Then, next year, that is, at the end of 2025 or 2026, domestic L3 regulations will be implemented.

However, YCD has clearly stated that around the end of 2025, L3 will be commercialized on highways.

May I ask, will car companies with other plans follow this or not?

If you don't follow, it means your technology is lagging behind.

If you follow, it will cause various problems due to your own active safety not meeting the standards.

The end of next year is destined to be a difficult time for many OEMs!

Next year will be a year of major reshuffle for smart cars priced above 200,000 yuan.

Let's wait and see.

Shareholders exchange:

1. "May we encounter beauty unexpectedly": "Can this year's nonferrous metals be comparable to those of 2007?"

There are no two leaves in the world that are exactly the same.

Similarly, the non-ferrous metals in recent years are also different from those in 2007.

The non-ferrous metals market in 2007 was still a world order dominated by the United States. Under the resonance of the Chinese and American economies, a super-comprehensive bull market was launched.

The nonferrous metals market in recent years has been very complicated.

In general, the monetary easing by various countries has led to currency devaluation, and the Sino-US trade war has led to decoupling and chain disruption.

Also, with the tacit approval or support of major powers, many resource-rich countries have set up trusts and raised resource prices.

Therefore, this round of inflation is very complicated.

This round of market trends has shown the characteristics of having a beginning and an end, and has lasted for several years and has not yet been completed.

2. "Thunder who loves Kung Pao lotus root cubes": "The bull market is coming, follow the rhythm of the bull market and make a small profit."

New stock investors have a novice bonus and a protection period, and there is a high probability that they will make money from the beginning.

But in the end, most new investors will end up losing money.

It is recommended for beginners to enter the market with spare money or small amounts of money, and lose a little money to gain some experience.

The stock market seems simple, but the threshold is actually very high, very, very high;

It seems easy to make money, but in fact it is very difficult, especially difficult. On the contrary, it is very easy to lose money.

Another week has passed, and fellow stockholders are here to urge me to update my blog^_^